Manaea is 32, projected for 2.1 fwar this season. He’s a #4 SP on a true contender, as projections go, but he’s outpitched that projection so far this season and is pitching more like a legit #3. He’s making $14M this season with essentially a $14M player option for next year. So if he continues pitching well, you get ~2 fwar for ~$6M this season and he’s gone; if he pitches poorly or gets hurt, you pay $20M and could get nothing. So there’s a case that he has very little surplus (or even negative) value, and there’s essentially no case that he has more than ~$15M in surplus value. For me that puts him in the range of one org top 10 prospect plus a throw-in. So I’d say an Astros package should look something like: 1 of Ullola, Gordon, Cole, Bloss, or Corona plus one lesser prospect from a long list. If the Mets agree to pay some money, they could probably increase the return to include 2 of those prospects I listed out. But Melton, Blubaugh, Matthews, Leon, Dezenzo, and Baez should all be off the table for Manaea, I’d really try to avoid including upside young position players like Jaworsky, Ochoa, Gomez, or Diaz.
I see Manea as a SP3 and I dont think he's going to fall off this year and you cant live in the he might get injured world. If you see Manea as a solid SP3 with one more yr of control then a guy like Melton would be in play IMHO. Of course everybody seems to be higher on Melton than I am.
But that’s the thing: If Manaea pitches like a SP3, he doesn’t have one more year of control, because he will opt out knowing he can do better than $14M/1yr. You have to factor the downside into his value, especially with how frequently pitchers get hurt.
The truth is The Astros really need an ace or an ace 1B given Verlander’s age and Framber’s struggles and lack of consistent dependability and now Javier’s absence if we’re talking about trying for another run in the playoffs here. And if they’re not thinking about a run in the playoffs, then I really don’t see the franchise’s motivation to make moves unless they intend to be seller’s and start the rebuild. And let’s not forget the cap situation which restricts improving the team through trade even further unless Crane wants to go another level up in the tax at the sacrifice of additional draft capital.
Yep. Houston is suddenly in pretty bad shape financially. They went from zero underwater contracts in 2021 to a bunch now (Abreu, Graveman, Urquidy, McCullers,and Montero for sure, with Pressly, Verlander, Hader, and Javier all arguably being negative value). Any billionaire owner can pretty much unilaterally decide to field a contender with money, but it gets real hard to justify and it creates a self-perpetuating problem. I have a hard time seeing Crane going too much further down that path, especially if they miss the playoffs entirely one year.
Worst of all, contracts that are underwater generally cost more than just money, they cost wins. It is one of the hardest lessons baseball will teach you. There is definitely a correlation between wasted dollars and games lost.
I didn't realize this. I don't have time or the inclination to keep up with these things like you and others on this MB do. Thanks On a side note, what do you think the prospect cost would be to get Abeu's money off the books. I would definitely give up Melton to get Abeu off of the books and maybe more. Give me a low level prospect or not even that. Gotta get out from under that sunk cost, even if it costs more than you want to give up IMHO.
Trade prospects to get out of the wasted money. The first thing that needs to be done is admit you made a mistake and overpay to clear the money you that's tied up in your mistake. Speaking from a business standpoint, holding onto dead weight is the worst thing you can do IMHO.
You are undervaluing Melton. He is a fringe Top 100 prospect with a very high ceiling. He is rated slightly lower than Springer was when he was at similar stage of his career. I am pretty sure Abreu has negative value beyond even his contract, because whatever team takes him on will have to clear a 40 man spot before releasing him. The only way I can see a team taking on Abreu is as part of a larger trade where Abreu is included to offset incoming salary and increase the other team’s prospect return. At this point it’s impossible for me to believe that any other team thinks Abreu is salvageable as a player. To answer your question, on a straight salary dump, Houston would have to include probably one of their top 6 or 7 prospects plus 1-2 other prospects from their 7-30 range. I think something like Luis Baez, Miguel Ullola, and Trey Dombroski would be a fair deal. But I would not want Houston to do that. They’d be much better off just releasing Abreu, keeping their prospects, and trying to find value elsewhere to make up the financial difference. This year is a sunk, and next year they have a little bit more financial flexibility to make things work, whatever their plan may be.
Thanks for the reply. No way I'm giving up Baez. He's the guy with the most upside in the entire org IMHO. I also dont want to give up Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Pecko or Bloss, Anybody else is fair game. Those along with Matthews are the gems of the org. BTW, Blubaugh is going to be a stud. He's just scratching the surface of his potential.
I fully understand what yall are saying But in a reality where we have a bottom half system already, I don’t think that is smart You are paying Abreu whether you keep him or dump him. It’s not like we can take the money saved by shipping him and a prospect away on more prospects, there are limits in place to not allow that The smart thing would be to not let him cost us another game, dfa him, and keep our prospects
If you give up prospects to clear his money off of the books, then that will allow a trade for a Gausman type SP (Not that I would aim that high.) and add a guy like Pederson or Martinez. The cost to add Pederson/Martinez shouldn't be that high.
I think he is referring to limits in the draft and international signing bonus pools. You can just use extra money to acquire more/better prospects in those arenas. If you want to “buy prospects”, you have to do it by taking on bad contracts from another team.
Oh sure me read all good. Bold move is to start trading lots of guys. I'd hate to see that but I'd understand it.
Yeah. I don’t want to see that but there’s a very stark contrast between 2009-2011 and now. Just trading Tucker, Bregman, Verlander, and Valdez would leave Houston with ~8 of the top 100 prospects in baseball (meaning easily a top 5 farm system) and ~$80M/yr+ in payroll flexibility moving forward. And they’d still have 2 stars and a large group of established young major leaguers. Houston may very well end up sucking **** this season, but they should be really good by 2026 even in a a worst case scenario.
I would rather add to the MLB roster and take my chances. Add a bat, SP3 and a Yimi/Maton type guy and this team will be much better. Cut loose of Abreu/Singleton and lets roll.
I agree, but not if they’re 10+ games out of the wildcard in mid July. This team has the talent to justify buying, but at some point the real wins and losses make projections meaningless.
I wouldn't be against this if I trusted Crane/Brown to get the mini rebuild right. Bottom line is I dont trust them because they've gone against the model that allowed them to build this dynasty.
