Job creation for Mar 2024 was 315K; in April it was 171K on the interest rate front, in view of these updated metrics, The soft landing might already be here
K-shaped recovery referrs to the recovery after a recession, which happened in the 2007-9 time frame. the US has not had a recession since the 2nd year of Obama. the US economy grew every year---including teh Trump years---since year 2 of Obama. GFC was in the 2007-8 time frame, several business cycles ago, almost four presidential terms ago;; more than 1 decade before the most recent economic crisis, the pandemic the effectiveness of Bidenomics has disproved the validity of the Phillips curve and the inverted yield curve stay current w current economic developments
I think there is a world in which Biden could have crafted a better narrative that allowed him to be up by 3 points instead of tied.
Nook is correct. I was raised conservative (not to be confuse with Republican). Over the last decade or so, I have become very disenchanted with the Republican party to the point where I view the party as yet another government digit of the overall problem. They are just as much of a problem as they advocate against. And I view the Democrats no different. This is not the Democrats of the 1960's. They are beholden to the rich and powerful just like the Republicans. Obama has said as much. Republicans are Republicans. Its who they are. Until the Democrat voters take their party back from the elitist, nothing will change. Blindly supporting them only continues the problem.
on the heels of China cutting its 5-year loan prime rate in order to boost its ailing property sector, ECB Just Cut Interest Rates, But the Fed Is Still in Charge The European Central Bank joined the Bank of Canada in initiating an interest rate-cutting cycle this week, and they should be followed over the next few months by policymakers in the US and UK. While domestic economic developments compelled the moves, multiple further reductions from both central banks — and the ECB in particular — could well be prematurely curtailed by worries about how currency markets would respond if the Federal Reserve delayed its own easing. these 2 monetary catalysts will, most likely, strengthen the US dollar, which has the effect of lowering the cost of imports from China / EU. this would contribute the Fed's fight to lower inflation, yet another eg of the benefits of having the de-facto global reserve currency
Yup, Fiscal cons are from a bygone era. Reagan exploded the deficit relative to the spending of that era. Dubya went on a spending spree plus 2 trillions dollar wars on top of recovering from 9/11 and a host of other disasters. Trump added almost 8.5T from Covid related spending but also 2T in deficit spending during a Booming Economy. Bush Sr's tax hikes set the stage for Clinton, but he's the rallying cry among Republicans for never paying more taxes. Tea Party offshoots via Freedom Caucus talked a good game during Obama, even got some unpopular "nation destroying" budget cuts through budget sequestration, only to go 180 under Trump. You don't have much choices as a fiscal con. I doubt Democrats will face voter wrath again after getting suckered with relatively minor budget cuts during Obama only to see Trump spend like a drunken sailor.
No, Today Republicans aren't Yesterday Republicans. They have never been this MAGA brand until a few years ago. I will forever vote for Democrats until this MAGA brand of Republicans no longer has leadership power, or the Democrats adopt the MAGA style of leadership and government.
Of course. Partisans will continue to be partisans until the world literally burns down to the ground. This is how the world ends up with extremism. Look at the 1930's. Let us be very clear - Modern democrats do not represent the 1960's democrats. Whatever course set you to be a blinding party supporter has come full circle and have become what you hate. The democrats are chasing the Republicans to the bottom. What you largely misunderstand is that the ideology is more important than the brand. If both brands stink, stop buying what they offer. period.
Being anti-MAGA isn't partisan. It's only perceived as such by those deeply entrenched in partisanship. If Democrats stoop to the level of chasing Republicans to the bottom, they lose my support. Conversely, if Republicans distance themselves from MAGA, they regain my support. When individuals fail to discern and treat all actions as equal, we slide into extremism as a norm. When you and enough people view individuals who show no regard for the law, perpetuate corruption, hold felony convictions, and prioritize self-interest above all else as no different from others, you're essentially endorsing a dangerous mindset where everything is deemed equivalent. This normalization of extremism, lawlessness, and corrupt and immoral behaviors could indeed lead to a situation where the Democrats find themselves no different from today's Republicans.
What exactly came from Dimon? I doubt he views fiscal policy and the Fed as you do…. Accountability for what exactly? The next president can appoint a new Fed…. But as I’ve tried explaining to you multiple times is how fiscal and monetary policy work together. The Fed waited too long to raise rates but clearly they were also right about Covid related supply chain issues causing a good deal of inflation. Russia holding the world hostage over energy prices is certainly a geopolitical factor that the Fed can't do anything about. Rising housing costs are far more complex than you want to believe than “ interest rates.” From my perspective NIMBY-ism is far more to blame than the Fed. Is it a policy shift or a consequence of an aging population and other factors . We don't seem to agree on how cause and effect works..... you seem to think there's some sort of intention instead of it just being an effect. Again… what you spend the money on matters. Trillions on the Iraq War/ Afghanistan War/ War on Terror not a good investment… Spending on infrastructure, supply chains, and green tech…. Prudent spending that should have been started awhile ago..... Entitlements.... Military.... are all things that need to be more efficient but would require Congress to do something about. How many times have we lowered taxes in the last 40 years? It certainly is a political problem but not something insurmountable. That is the short term future, but not necessarily the long term future. The poor ALWAYs get eaten first.... America's growing inequality also isn't something nefarious by Fed members and bankers/elitist/whatever buzz word.
Instead of making a nuanced reply, I get to live rent free in your head and have you make a meme. Good boy
thru sleight-of-hand, invisible is pretending that his parroted nonsensical BS as Dimon's take the Fed was late in raising rate the street has priced in 1n 70-80% chance of soft landing Jamie opines that it is less than that Invisible's parroted BS, , the Fed is exploding its future balance sheet the Fed is wrecking its balance sheet, ROFLMAO once again, you're publicizing your willful ignorance! The stated dual mandate for the Fed is to maintain maximum employment and stable prices. the Bureau of Labor Statistics, on a monthly bases, releases data on employment CPI PPI in addition, the Fed Chair testifies in front on Congress, twice a year, as to the progress made relative to its dual mandate Invsible needs to heed Abe's sage advise!
You're free to doubt as it's your opinion. It would help this exchange if you wrote in your own words what you think his views are especially wrt this topic. Each Fed chair has a 14 year term for the veneer of structural independence. You don't have to explain much to me. I would however preferred if you paid more attention to what I wrote. Sure, we've debated this before and I don't mind agreeing to disagree. Inflation is still around, and a simple search for staglation on Google News shows how relevant it's in discussion across different sources. You're telling me Rising housing costs are far more complex than you want to believe than “ interest rates.” , but you're arguing NIMBYism is "more to blame" for a national problem? Huh I doubt you watched that frontline as a primer to what QE has done to this country. I'm beginning to have doubts whether debating you is an equal exchange. I seem to misunderstand you. Explain in your own words why you think it is [a consequence of an aging population and other factors] and what it means. Your answer in previous debates has been to raise taxes to address the 34,000,000,000,000 national debt. I think you know the realistic answer to how Congress will act, especially if you're spouting off "consequence(S) of an aging population". There you go with the conspiracy theory frame again. The Fed's policy actions relating to QE do exacerbate inequality, and they've admitted to it in order to maintain their greater mandates. The fact that their own governors have resigned after allegations of insider trading is NOT a conspiracy theory. The greater order effects of their actions with QE is debatable, with consequences now being pointed out by the CEO of the World's Largest Bank. Ooooh saying that rustles my Conspiracy Jimmies!
