Houston Rockets 2023-24 TS%

Interesting. I didn’t expect Tari’s TS% to be so low.

 

Smaller sample size. And missed layups...

 

He is shockingly bad at finishing around the rim for a guy with his tools--only 56.1% this past season. Pretty small sample size, to be fair. If he had better touch around the basket I would think a lot more highly of his ultimate ceiling. Still going to be a great roleplayer for us though.

 

I watched most of the games this year so no real surprises for me.

But, I think some people get overly invested in TS% because they think it's basically equal to overall offensive impact, which it isn't.

 

Well bottom 10 teams in TS% this past year all missed the playoffs. Being able to shoot isn't everything but not being able to shoot means you arent winning.

 

It's roughly equivalent to offensive efficiency, if you TS% is bad and you have a high volume, it almost always means you are hurting your team.

 

Well we can test this. Rank the players by their on/off impact on points per possession on offense.


Cleaning the glass site makes this easily sortable.

 

Yeah, let's hype up the fact that Jalen was a +2.1 on offense.....but let's DEFINITELY ignore that his overall was -4.7

 

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

I'll do the list because you have to pay cleaning the glass subscription to have a ranked list though you can look at each individual player for free. This is a rank of player on/off impact on team point production per possession with player name, league percentile and actual impact

1. FVV, 82 percentile, +3.9 ppp
2. Jock, 82, +3.9
3. Jalen, 72, +2.4
4. Tari, 62, +1.1
5. Holiday, 61, +1.0
6. Brooks, 58, +0.5
7. Tate, 42, -1.4
8. Sengun, 45, -1.6
9. Amen, 40, -1.6
10. Cam, 40, -1.6
11. Jeff, 29, -3.0
12. Bari, 28, -3.1
13. Bullock, 19, -4.9


The one caveat I want to point out here is that bench players have a easier time with on/off impact due to playing opposing benches. Landale also out of the regular rotation guys had the smallest sample size where almost all his minutes were from that 13-2 March stretch so there is a lot of noise with his data.

So the best way to rank this is one list for starters and one list for bench guys

 

Sure, on a team basis TS% holds significantly more weight.

I was talking about on an individual player basis.

Jason Kidd was a terrible shooter, some of the worst TS% numbers you'll ever see from an all star guard but his playmaking ability was vital to those Nets' teams offense. They could barely get the ball across halfcourt without him. Unquestionably, the most important player to their offense.

For this Rockets team similarly, you would say FVV is significantly more important to the Rockets offense than Jeff Green even though he has the higher TS%. Jeff Green is a savvy vet that has the opportunity to turn down shots he can't make. FVV as the primary ball handler is often forced to take bad shots when plays break down and no one is getting open.

Who contributed more to the team TS% if Jeff Green gets an easy layup off of a Sengun or FVV pass?

It's like looking at raw rebounds vs rebounds that the team gets when you're on the court. The guy boxing out or playing great defense is contributing to the team getting the rebound. A guard flying in and stealing a few defensive boards hasn't increased the team rebounds. So, yes, you need to understand the context with any stat you're viewing.

 

I don't think this a good stat to arrive at definite conclusions. These on-off stats neglect several other factors and by itself display a shallow statistical presentation. Secondly, this stat you shared only gives us the data of points scored. It doesn't add the defensive side of things. In the end, basketball scores are only meaningful when compared to what the opposition scores. Thus, even though not perfect because it's still an on-off stat, I find the "Diff" stat from Cleaning the Glass much more meaningful. Here is the definition:

"Team points scored per 100 possessions minus team points allowed per 100 possessions."

And here is the ranking of our starters:

1. Fred Vanvleet, +5.9
2. Alperen Sengun, -1.6
3. Dillon Brooks, -3.3
4. Jalen Green, -3.9
5. Jabari Smith Jr, -9.0

Long live Fred Vanvleet.

 

Couple things about Jason Kidd,
1. Most of his career was played in a VERY different era where chuckers reigned supreme and no one really talked about efficiency
2. Most of his offense was creating for others as a pure point guard
3. He was 9 times selected to NBA all defense teams with 4 of those being first team

When you are an all around amazing player that doesn't typically shoot all that much, you can make up for not being a very good shooter. When you are a SHOOTING guard who is a mindless chucker on offense and a liability on defense....that's not the case for you.

So sure, you need to look beyond TS% to get a more complete picture of a player, but it's always better to have a better TS% than a lower one no matter who you are. There's never any benefit to being shitty at shooting the ball.

 

Are you looking at point differential stat or something else?

Basically, I am asking, which diff stat are you applying / looking at?

TY in advance

 

Its full name is "Efficiency Differential" on the site Cleaning the Glass. The definition is in the post you quoted.

 

TY!

 

I'm sure their formula is proprietary, but it seems to be just another version of net rating using on off splits.

Here's the basketball reference version in more detail for Jalen Green last season.


As you can see, Jalen Green was a -4.7 to the team's net rating when on the court last season.