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Case to Draft Reed Sheppard at #3

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, May 20, 2024.

  1. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    It certainly can be, only the most casual of basketball fan would look exclusively at raw scoring totals.

    In Jalen's case, he's a mindless chucker so while sometimes he'll score a lot, the efficiency overall is so terrible, he's killing his team.

    He's really good for tanking though. If we had drafted a quality player instead of Jalen there's little to no chance we get 4 top 4 picks in a row.
     
  2. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    His actual TS% was significantly better than Jalen has ever managed however.... funny how you skip that part.
     
  3. MystikArkitect

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    There are more stats I can cherry pick to paint Jalen in a really bad light than you can pick to paint him in a good light. Cam Thomas is an example of a player that can put up points on good efficiency but is an absolutely terrible NBA player. If Jalen hadn't picked it up defensively last year like he did he would've been one of the worst players in the league. Again.
     
  4. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    It's not cherry picked, it's a fact. Jalen has more high efficiency 40pt games in his career than every other member of the roster combined. He's top 3 all time for his age. So literally, 3 people in history have done what he's done. Please, objectively show me how that makes him an awful prospect?
     
  5. AroundTheWorld

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    Quite far off, TJ McConnell attempts almost no threes (at least in the NBA - I know he shot them more in college). He's a great passer, but 3-point shooting is arguably Reed's greatest strength, so comparing him to someone who basically avoids the three-point shot makes little sense.
     
  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4932/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

    https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency


    Cam Thomas had the same on/off impact as Green this season but on a 30 win team.

    Jalen Green at least when he's on a bad team like past season has a positive on/off impact.

    And Green has the second highest on/off impact on the Rockets offensive possessions out of the main rotation players with only FVV being higher. Landale is higher also but his sample size is low.


    So Green is somehow this horribly inefficient player yet why does he have the second best impact(even higher than Sengun) on team offense only behind stats Freddy?

    Also with young players especially ones asked to self create right off the bat from age 19, the highs and how often they can get there shows what their ceilings can be. So when Green is in all time lists for things like this:


    That shows what Green's ceiling can be. It's expected young high talent players thrown to the fire will be inconsistent.

    Again, Victor Wembeyana, the generational all time rookie had the literal exact adjusted ts of 97 as Green's rookie year.

    Paolo Banchero has the same career ts% as Jalen Green and he's seen as a future superstar.


    Young high volume players asked to self create are almost always going to be inefficient. Guys like Booker and Ant have similar ts% over their first few years and guys like Beal have worse efficiency in their first few years and scored less off self creation in their early years compared to Green.
     
  7. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    They just don't seem to get it. It's like they have no concept of development at all tbh. They see inconsistency and jump to the bizarre conclusion that "anybody can do that, he only does it every few games" without realizing that actually, almost nobody has ever done that. The very fact that Green has those performances makes him the only player who's CONSISTENTLY shown the ability to put in monster superstar performances every year of his career so far. Nobody else on the roster (in fact, nobody since Harden) ever really has.

    Edit: Please, somebody show me a single example of a player Jalen's age putting up that many monster performances and ending up a bust?
     
    Philip K. Nick and fchowd0311 like this.
  8. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That's 17 games.


    What about the other 208 games.
     
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Green is I think 7th in ppg all time for players 21 and under.

    And again, look at how many players at that age group score that many 30 pt games with that efficiency all time. It's a very select company with no flukes outside of Green if you think he's the one fluke.
     
  10. MystikArkitect

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    Well he's going into his 4th year so I wouldn't call him a prospect anymore. And high efficiency 40 pt games isn't a standard....it's just a random stat. Like me saying that Amen has the most high efficiency 15 pt/5 rb/5 assists games of all time for a player above 6-5 or something. If anything it just proves what we already know about Jalen. When he's on it he's on it and he looks amazing. But he's not on it most of the time. It's why you have to take a specific stat like efficient 40 point games and use it to paint the whole picture. Those tend to be the games when he's "on". Let's compare how many games he's had 40+ on high efficiency to the games he's had less than 10 points on low efficiency. And for the sake of the argument I'll not include the games before ASB his rookie year because that would make him look even worse:

    Games 40 points or over on good effciency: 7
    Games 10 points or under on bad efficiency: 24 (6-18 record)

    Going through his numbers...his second year was by far his best year. It took me a bit to get to his first genuine stinker and there wasn't as many to be found in his second year (3 total games). I'm not in the "off with his head" boat quite yet but I'm close. If he has a bad October/November the ripcord needs to be pulled.
     
  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I don't care about Green's stats on a crappy team in an era where you can't touch a player, those are so ****ing meaningless.

    DD
     
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  12. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Does he?

    Because there would be mad impressive.

    And I don't know how saying a player has so many high efficient 30 pt games before a certain age is "cherry picked"?


    If you are onna short list of players under a certain age for efficient 30 pt games why would you consider that "cherry picked". You just state these premises as matter of fact.

    Of course it's impressive.

    What you want from Green is these high peaks that Green shows at this age range while also being consistent...


    So you want him to be a Luka/LeBron level young player or else he's a disappointment.
     
  13. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Corey Brewer scored 50, KPJ scored 50......

    This era's scoring is so inflated.

    Green's problem is he isn't good enough or rather CONSISTENT enough to warrant what he is seeking in pay.....he is just not good enough.

    DD
     
  14. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    Show me a single other player who has the same number of monster performances as Green who failed? One single player. Shouldn't be that hard if you've proclaimed him a bust right, must be super common and easy to achieve?
     
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  15. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    The NBA has had other high volume 20 ppg scorers who are fool's gold. Francis, Marbury, Martin, Lawson, Knight, Westbrook, Lavine, Porter Jr. Welcome to the intersection of the ISO ball, foul festival and 3 point eras.

    A player who tantalizes you with the idea of sky high ceiling and has not delivered consistently is the very dictionary definition of fool's gold.

    What Green needs the most is to not fade down the stretch, and make the playoffs with a Rockets squad so we can see it when the lights are turned up. Then the narrative will change. Until then, enjoy debating on the forums in circles.

    Hopefully my explanation helps explain why there have been 64729 posts arguing about Green over the last 3 years. You seem very surprised. We are all veterans in this discussion now.
     
  16. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    So where is Corey Brewer and KPJ on these lists?
    [​IMG]
     
  17. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Buddy.


    There is a difference between saying Green has been inconsistent or disappointing in his progression with efficiency....

    And saying he is objectively a failure.
     
  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    When people don't understand basics like what primary play type Jalen Green scores on (it ain't iso ball), I can safely assume they have lived and careers and follow this sport closely with platitudic takes.

    Congrats you have a life. You don't follow the sport with nuance and just make platitudic claims about objective definitions of what "fools gold" is.
     
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  19. jogo

    jogo Member

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    https://fadeawayworld.net/ranking-the-10-least-efficient-nba-scorers-this-season (look at #2)

    Points Added: -114.2

    Season Splits: 40.7 FG%, 31.8 3P%, 81.1 FT%

    Jalen Green, the highly-touted youngster for the Houston Rockets, finds himself on the list of the NBA's least efficient scorers this season with a Points Added of -114.2.

    This is the kind of list you don't want your player to be on. I know it is before he had his 11 game stretch. Because of this, it shows the typical Jalen Green performance for a whole 60 games of a season rather than 11 good ones after the ASB.

    It's the same three questions with Jalen that the superfans (sfs) and haters have:

    1) Can he shoot?
    2) Can he play consistently to his upper level?
    3) In what year does it matter?

    1) It always goes back to the three point shot. You can't be a good SG in the NBA without a 3PT shot. Show me one great SG in today's NBA without a 3 point shot. The Jalen sfs believe he'll be able to shoot and the haters don't.
    2) 17 great games from that list versus 208 mediocre, bad, and sometimes good games. A great player has to show it consistently. The sfs of Jalen don't seem to care about this.
    3) Ime improved our team immensely last year. Jalen had some improvements but his stats look the same as his first two years under Silas. Does that matter at some point?
     
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  20. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Jalen Green isn't good enough - I don't care how much cherry picking of stats his cult of followers try to display.

    Discerning fans know that he isn't good enough......

    The team is already looking to trade him, he won't be here past the trade deadline latest....IMHO.

    DD
     

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