Yeah the "Rockets want to trade young assets for a star" take is pretty dated at this point. Scotto is a New York guy, don't think he has any Houston FO sources. Based on the success in 23-24, Stone and Ime's exit press conference, and Stone and Witus' contract extensions, and -- I think any major shakeup is highly unlikely. This is a team that could win 48-50 games next year with 7 players on rookie contracts. We're on the OKC plan now: continue becoming a very good team via natural progression of your young core, continue drafting lottery talent and simultaneously accumulating future assets, and always have the upper hand in every negotiation because we don't need to do any deal -- we'll be very good either way.
Shooting 50/50/80 in college is certainly a good sign. Why not compare him to Nash and Curry coming into the draft? They share similar strengths and weaknesses. Don’t pretend to even claim you knew how good Curry would be, or how Nash would elevate to MVP level in his 30s by playing in the right system.
Starting to warm up to Risacher. But i think he's gone before our pick. Still not on the Topic train.
I think it's not that hard for him to get the 40 and the 90. But the 50 is going to be tough for any perimeter player.
I expect Sheppard to be similar to FVV in terms of his rim finishing. If the jump shooting is better the overall FG% will be better, of course. But probably not to that degree.
Why? FVV was 54% at the rim as a 4 year college player in the Missouri Valley Conference. Sheppard was 65% at the rim as a freshman in the SEC.
Because it’s a real long shot for Reed Sheppard to be an MVP of the NBA for one and again only nine guys in history have gone 50-40-90.
I meant FVV now, not FVV as a college player. Sheppard may end up a bit better in his prime. One of the things I always think about with Sheppard is his role off the bench with a lot of his minutes coming against second units. That wasn't the case for FVV for his last three years in college. We treat NBA players who excel off the bench very differently from NBA players who excel against starters. I think the same should be true for college prospects
To be fair to Sheppard he played 28 mins so he Def went against starters. However I agree with you we just don't see 6'1.75 players excelling at finishing at the rim unless they have bags of tricks like Jalen Brunson/Kyrie or a total monster like Steph. The Sheppard Delusion is crazy people expect him to put the same averages in college as in the NBA.
Isn’t projection the whole conversation here? Sheppard pre-draft is a very efficient player at the rim, against a high level of competition, at a young age. Why would we project him to be maybe the worst rim finisher in the league (like current FVV)? And Sheppard came in ~3 minutes into every game and closed every game. He played 29/40 mpg, which is the NBA equivalent of 35 mpg. The coming off the bench thing was performative just to fulfill recruiting promises. He didn’t play against bench units rather than starter units in any meaningfully differently way from any other college prospect.
He didn't play against a high level of competition he played in the NCAA which is the average/baseline level of competition for NBA draftees. In fact after he got hyped to all heaven he played in March Madness and got focused on, clowned and humiliated by Maryland so in a slightly higher level of competition than average he failed miserably. You are right projection is the conversation and to project you look at past players with the same profile as Reed Sheppard rather than extrapolating his college stats because the NBA is a different level than the NCAA. Just cuz you can finish vs unathletic kids in college doesn't mean you can finish vs Gobert, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid etc. Sarr, Risacher, Topic these are the players playing at a high level of competition since they are playing in professional leagues against grown men. It's not a surprise these kids also have great size and length to be able to do what they do. Rockets have the top 3 pick one of these 3 should be the pick for us.
I think based availability the Rox order of preference is Sarr Richaser Sheppard Castle They will try to move up to 1 or 2 If can’t, Trade for a vet If can’t, Trade down Assuming Sarr and Risacher are taken, they will draft between Sheppard or Castle as a final resort
You fill up these threads with unconstructive rants so not going to go back and forth. But just an FYI, if projecting based on pre-NBA analytics isn’t your thing I’ve got bad news for you… it’s the largest part of and biggest thing that differentiates the Rockets draft process, by far.
FVV's career at rim percentage in the NBA is 55%, about the same as his college percentage. Sheppard is taller and more athletic. I expect him to be better at finishing, although it's a low bar. Sheppard played 29 mpg, third most on the team, more than Wagner the starter. He probably played against starters at least half of the time.
I'm sure Rockets FO analytics take into account college stats translation to NBa with a discount rate of some kind and they also look at measurables. Their last few picks either aren't in college (JG, Amen Sengun), weren't that amazing analytically (Jabari, Cam Whitmore) or have amazing measurables (Jabari, Tari). In fact Tari is the only you can argue was amazing analytically and even then he was the 18th pick and kinda a no brainer at the spot. Considering they had either Amen or Whitmore on top of their board last year they probably have Risacher, Sarr, Topic and even Stephon Castle higher than Reed Sheppard. I guess we'll see.
Sheppard delusion is real. I've never seen so many posters lose their mind over a 12.5 ppg off the ball scorer in college lol. I hope the hype keeps hyping and Wizards take him at 2.
only the dumbest of the shitposters on here are completely anti-Sheppard. the decent CFers who aren't fully onboard with Sheppard at least acknowledge that Sheppard isn't that bad of a pick in this poor of a draft, even if they have different preferences. these dumb shitposters are the same ppl who begged for ben simmons and shitted on anyone who disagreed with them... only to turn around a few years later and **** on ben simmons themselves as if they hated him all along.
