Case to Draft Reed Sheppard at #3

One thing I’ve learned over the years: athleticism is overrated and BBall IQ and fundamentals are underrated.

Lets use FVV as an example. High IQ player, good shooter, good defender, great facilitator, great handles, and he’s short and not the quickest player. He’s strong and knows how to use his body, but his game isn’t really predicated on athleticism. I just don’t see how Sheppard can’t achieve a FVV level of play. He’s taller, more athletic, has high IQ, has the handles and fundamentals; he’s a better defender and shooter coming into the league. If you knew you were getting Fred out of this draft you’d take him #3. And I think Fred is probably an upper mid comp for Sheppard. His ceiling is a bit higher. Lock him in a gym with Fred and and get him in a strength training program.

 

And you think being long is a guarantee of success.
The league is filled with failed athletes that weren’t basketball players.
Sheppard is a great basketball player who also happens to be a good to great athlete by NBA standards.
Steph Curry says hello

 

But Castle isn’t?

 

He can do other things besides shoot. In fact shooting is a weakness for him not a strength. Fortunately he doesn't need to contribute as a shooter immediately since we have FVV for this year he can learn to shoot alongside Amen.

Any guy we have this year is gonna have an uphill battle getting minutes that's why it makes sense to look for someone with high ceiling who can develop on the side. Everyone is in love imagining Reed Sheppard getting open looks from 3 but he will get limited if any minutes since we have Tari coming back.

 

53% from 3 says enough.

DD

 

No way, i really hope not. We do not lack role player or off ball high potential players. In fact we're flooded with them.

So even if we're dumb enough to pick for need, that's not our need. Our only need is more guys with superstar potential.

Would rather pick someone with a higher ceiling and higher bust potential. We'll be fine if we write off this pick. We'll barely be better with one additional shooter.

In terms of ceiling basketball is offense and defense. Everyone can sense already he's not going to be as good a defender in the NBA and can only guard 1 or maybe two positions. He's not going to be a Stockton or CP3 or Kidd defensively. Defense is half the formula and he's going to be a B- at best here.

On offense, I was hoping he had something to add to his shooting but I'm reading now he has tiny hands? That's usually a death sentence for your ability to get to the rim/line and your ability to be elite with your handles. So he's really going to be a 3pt shooter who's good at attacking closeouts. He needs to be an A+ ceiling on offense for him to have a high overall ceiling. But when you're not elite with your handle or the most important shot in basketball (2pts at the rim), you've now set yourself up to have to be at least as good as Klay Thompson as a shooter (top 10 shooter all time). Is he that? Maybe. It's not looking like a lock to be that.

I'd rather trade down and get the next best shooter who has a higher defensive ceiling. Defense is half the formula.

I'm not giving up any of Cam or Amen or Jalen's minutes for him. Lol look at what those guys have achieved in the NBA these are elite guard prospects. Why would we add a 4th non elite one? He can't replace FVV. Would be a bad situation. Not the BPA and not the best fit except that he can shoot. We can sign a shooter with MLE, why would we waste a #3 pick?

 

Shooting is the least interesting part about Sheppard. He gets more steals and blocks than Amen, is a better passer than Amen, AND is the best 3 point shooting prospect in recent memory. And Amen is really good to elite at those things!

 

Yeah if you think Reed is just a spot up shooter you’re way off base.

hes an exceptional passer. Simple passes. Cross court passes. Look ahead passes. Roll passes. He’s crafty and uses angles well. He doesn’t often finish at the rim but when he does concerts at a strong %. He’s an event creator defensively. He causes havoc. He’s GP2 esque or Pat Bev not quite as crazy and better hands. His hands are incredibly strong. Surprising explosive vertical. Not the quickest laterally athletically but so smart at anticipating the action and disrupting it, or not giving up if slightly beat.

I’m personally still not clear what his upside is. But I think he can help immediately while still getting much better….

he’s a winning impact player.

This in season review goes over it quite clearly

 

It's funny how a few of the biggest nitpickers and posters critical of Reed Sheppard are the big Jalen Green only fanatics. We're stacked with bigs and wings, and internally our players are clearly better than any big or wing in this draft. We also have a clear need for an on-ball elite shooter, one who happens to be one of the best shooters to come out in some time and some posters are losing sleep over someone we might not even get a chance to draft...

Scared that your boy might finally lose his spot on the team, is it?

 

Sheppard is just as good a defender if not better. A better facilitator and connective guy.
Sheppard is a better player, but because he’s 6’3 and not 6’6 he’s useless to you?
Stop it

 

Reed is nothing like Garrison Mathews, who is a terrible defender that only gambled for charges and did nothing else but shoot. The same with Aaron Holiday who has a low basketball iq. I cringed every time he had the ball because he botched so many passes and simple fast breaks and was a streaky shooter. If you don’t want to draft Reed that’s one thing, but don’t come up with completely useless comparisons like these two.

 

It is funny how Greenies have to find ways to accept Cam and Amen....

It felt forced but they were doing it and now Sheppard, this is going to be comical.

 

This article is from Feb 9 so the season wasn't complete yet, but it doesn't look like his overall numbers differed too much. His 2pt shooting percentage actually jumped from 51.4% to 55.5% from the time of the article to the end of the season which means he finished the year shooting 61.7% from 2pt land after the article was written.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/reed-sheppards-numbers-are-still

According to Synergy, Sheppard is scoring

• 1.163 points per possession (PPP) overall (95th percentile),
• 1.466 PPP spotting up (98th percentile), 1.091 PPP as the pick-and-roll ball handler (93rd percentile),
• 1.47 PPP on all jumpers (99th percentile), 1.60 PPP shooting off the catch (99th percentile),
• 1.26 PPP shooting off the dribble (96th percentile).

82.8% of Sheppard’s jumpers have come from three, where he’s shooting 53.1% on 96 attempts. From three, he’s shooting

• 54.5% when spotting up,
• 56.3% running the pick-and-roll,
• 58.3% in transition,
• 44.4% on handoffs,
• 53.4% shooting off the catch,
• 52.2% shooting off the dribble.

 

Since some dumbasses keep bringing up "he is just Garrison Mathews" - Mathews was a 37.4% 3-point shooter in college. He also has nowhere near the steal and block rate and assists as Sheppard. In other words, they aren't alike at all.

 

I'd be very happy with Reed, though I'd be in pain watching Topic dominate with the Spurs.

 

If we could just draft them both... My dream draft for the Rockets. Set the guard position with Amen for the future. We don't need Clingan ATM. We may draft Adem Bona with 44th pick.

 

It evened out, we tended to listen more to Scouts but now we also listen to Advanced Analysts and Stats.

And I do think Sheppard is closer to 6'2 1/2 than 6'3 but should not matter as much as he has 2 years to grow into 6'4 even.

 

Those most critical of Sheppard are the same people who drooled over guys like Jalen Green, Jaden Ivey, and Scoot Henderson..... 3 of the worst prospects in the past 3 drafts, it's more than fair to suggest that they are just terrible at talent evaluation.

 

Mac McClung???