So, adding our own with Brooklyn's, we have the following chances: #1: 6.00% #2: 6.49% #3: 7.08% #4: 7.81% Those combined odds put us in the 8th spot, below Memphis and above Utah. On the flip side, if we miss out on the top four, our pick goes to OKC which means we are only playing with Brooklyn's: #9: 50.73% #10: 25.89% #11: 3.02% #12: 0.09% #13: 0.01% It's impossible for us to get a pick between between #5 and #8. It's also impossible for us to get #14.
I'm just having such a hard time caring this year. Of course higher is better, but I don't even know who I'd pick #1 right now. The top 10 feels like a jumbled mess of decent but not spectacular prospects. Feels like a total crapshoot which of these guys, if any, will become impact players.
I do not like loops, the Draft feels like an endless loop of the same stuff. I tune in for the suspense of teams falling or rising to the top......
When I saw this thread yesterday I meant to get into the math to debunk the 27.4% figure but then I got busy and now it's not really important. Hint: use chat gpt and the ability to upload excel documents to get the real overall odds of securing a 1-4 pick.