As much as I'd love to do it. One year out of three is still on the border for me. I actually discount it because of the first two years. The thing Caserio has to do is forecast what it means for 2025 and beyond. I really don't want that job.
I don't see Nico regressing- he played as a top 4 to 6 rank WR all year undeniably,..that is elite - that's what he is.
Bingo! That AvalABILITY factor must be included in the calculation along with the other factors. I would feel more comfortable with a 4 year contract and a larger signing bonus for a lesser amount. ie Extend now for 4 years (25,26,27,28) when he's scheduled to make about $3.5M with his bonus (24). Est Market Cap is about $24M based on last season's healthy season. Pay him for 2 healthy seasons and round up to $50M. This pairs him with CJ and locks him in for CJs 1st post HUGE contract year. Now add incentives which you would expect from a healthy Niko. This gives him a payday NOW before a chance of injury this season. Texans are partially "insured" because they got half the value from the rookie contract last season. I'm not sure if they do it in the NFL, But rolling 24 into it might be advantageous for Cap purposes to front load this contract rather than back load it later. I just don't know. But if someone else is willing to risk $70M on a 3 year contract, then you have to let him decide if it's worth it to him. This is just my way of thinking. I know it's very Boomer and bird in the hand mentality.
While I'm on my overnight whine after looking at video, can anyone tell me why the obsession with turning every highlight and study film into a music video? It's very distracting, particularly when the music is LOUSY and LOUD.
Elite WR are great, but they are a catch 22 (overpaying for one will have dire consequences). An elite WR is a lot easier to replace than a top notch QB, LT, Elite pass rusher, elite CB. Of course you can’t find elite wide receivers easily, but you can find productive WR routinely in FA. The draft, trade, etc.
I’d be ok with a 3 year deal. Ends right when Stroud is due his big pay day. Should be able to find another WR within that time period. Unless Stroud and Nico become one of the best QB-WR duos in the league.
I suspect no extension is going to happen. I think with Nico's injury history the team is going to be reticent to give out a very long term deal, and that's what Nico is going to look for. So he'll end up hitting free agency. Just my prediction.
I think a Pitman like deal would end up being good for the Texans. Lots of hype around Dell and Diggs, but I could see Nico having the biggest statistical season.
