Some folks need to be more concerned with escalating conditions. Poland is suspending CFE and is building up its military Russia is allegedly recruiting 150-300k more soldiers The recent 'terrorist' attack and attacks on infrastructure serves as propaganda to energize Russian people. Ultimately everyone needs to be concerned if Russia declares war on Ukraine.
Plenty of articles to peruse concerning the lack of volunteers for the Ukrainian military and how a lack of new recruits could prove fatal. There's presently a frontline that encompasses the entire length of the country and it is well understood a Russian break through of that line could result in Ukraine's defeat. The situation is critical and it is well known to be critical. This is a full scale war. People in the west of the country can't possibly be of the mindset that "it's more of an Eastern part of the country problem." The truth is the percentage of military age men serving in the Ukrainian military isn't particularly high, hundreds of thousands - to millions of military age men have fled the country and there appears to be little-to-no enthusiasm for more men to join the armed forces. So, if Ukrainians won't fight, they will be slaves to Russia, that's where we are headed unless Ukrainian men start entering the military in greater numbers.
This is some pretty stark proof that either you are in fact Russian, or are HEAVILY tied up in Russian propaganda networks. Not even MAGA crazy people think like or repeat the Russia state media narrative that this is just a "Special Military Operation." You have to be up to your eyeballs believing Russian state media to actually say something as blatantly ignorant as what you just said is. Either way, you've just given everyone here a pretty stark warning that you are in fact bias towards Putin. There's no way of decoupling that notion here unless you want to try and walk back that comment.
You view everything through your tiny little world view. Was the US occupation of Afghanistan a special operation or a declaration of war? To Afghanistan, it is one and the same. Same as Ukraine. To the Russian populace, its different. Just as Americans saw the Afghanistan campaign different from a declaration of war. Propaganda needs narratives, whatever that might be. So kindly stop turning everything into a hyper obsessive 'MAGA' insult.
LOL. George Bush literally declared war. Everyone here in the US believed we were going to war against Afghanistan as they were ruled by the Taliban at the time, and the mission clearly stated the goal was to remove them from power, and root out Al Qaeda. Google "Operation Enduring Freedom". Worst whataboutism I've probably seen you make thus far. And again... you are trying to whataboutism on behalf of Putin while also using the pro Putin tactic of gaslighting Americans about their past. Say you are Russian without tell us you are Russian. I'm not trying to insult you. I'm trying to get you to be honest, and stop thinking that you can propagate here in the same that you would on other sites that spread pro Russian disinformation. Be honest about your intentions, stop constantly gaslighting, and people will have a much easier job respecting your positions. You obviously are pro Putin... so just own up to your position, and tell us why you feel the way you do. We weren't born yesterday dude.
I am not contesting that there are lots of Ukrainian men that have not volunteered thus far - indeed it is estimated that up to 50,000 of them fled the country before the borders were locked down. My point is that the government thus far has not forced the deployment of conscriptions in the 18-30 range, not to mention the draft which is 18-60. So - if things get bad enough, the government can mobilize a large number of soldiers to fight Russia. The numbers would be in the range of a half million men, and that includes some fleeing or being arrested. The vast majority of Ukraine is not controlled by Russia, and that includes the northern part of the country that still had trade and they are living a surprisingly normal life at this point. The Russians may well win the war, in fact, unless the USA and the West amp up their support, Russia will win the war, especially if Trump wins election. It is human nature - I am not shocked that men, especially young men in the North or Ukraine and the West are not rushing out to fight. They are supporting families, many are in school and many will not "join the fight" until they have to. So the current number of troops that Ukraine isn't static - there are avenues, even likely avenues where it can increase greatly.
No - Americans viewed the occupation of Afghanistan as war.... just like they viewed Vietnan and the Korean War as actual wars....... the general American public does not differentiate at all. Short of Ukraine invading Russia, it will make no difference.
I just I generally disagree with your analysis/position. It's estimated 650,000 military age men have fled Ukraine since the start of the war. Not 50,000. I don't think if China invaded the west coast of the United States and occupied a frontline which stretched the entire length of the country from the Canadian to the Mexican border somewhere around Denver, Americans would be unenthusiastic about military service. Ukraine is fighting a war for its national existence and the percentage of military age men serving is quite low. Just look at the data: Ukraine had a population of 43.79 million as of 2021. So, approximately 22 million males. Of which approximately 11 million will be of fighting age. What are the Ukrainian militaries numbers right now? Ukraine's troop numbers are not known, but it has said in the past it has around 1 million people under arms https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/ If you take that 1,000,000 number, that means approximately 9% of the Ukrainian male population of fighting age is serving. Now, Ukraine has had some casualties but they have also had foreign volunteers and some of the that 1,000,000 will be women and I haven't dug into those numbers either. But I'll give them another 5% as casualties. So let's say 14% of the Ukrainian male fighting age population has served or is currently serving. In comparison, the U.S. had a population of approximately 133,000,000 in 1941 which means approximately 65 million males. Which means approximately 32 million of fighting age and we know approximately 16 million U.S. servicemen served in WWII. About 50% of fighting age men served. Now keep in mind a foreign soldiers boots basically never set foot on U.S. soil the entirety of WW2 as well... Ukrainian men are, writ large, not doing enough and they will be subjugated if the apathy continues. That's Ukraine's biggest problem right now. Apathy. They, writ large, clearly don't care enough about not being subjugated.
Spectator comment: (not necessarily "premium," sorry) While there are definitely "pro Putin" people in America, and probably even in Congress, I don't think it's helpful to toss that label around to other posters here. @Space Ghost , for instance, has always struck me as critical of American interventions in other places, just in general, and I think he questions an ongoing blank check for Ukraine. And without wanting to put words in his mouth, I bet he wishes Putin would never have invaded Ukraine and probably would be happy if a less dictatorial power regime emerged in Russia. But given realities, he just worries if we're really thinking through the correct long game of protecting ourselves from larger conflicts, on the one hand, and taking care of business at home, on the other. That's been my consistent read on the more reasonable not-sure-about-supporting-Ukraine folks, even if I disagree with those conclusions.
The 50,000 number is the estimated number of men that have fled conscription, not the number of men that have fled Ukraine. I don't contest that many Ukrainians, including many men have left the country over the last 30 months. I don't think the comparison is valid at all. Ukraine has been invaded several times in recent memory, they have in their recent past lost land - their government has not existed very long, and they are surrounded by other nations they can enter into and live in. Both of these are true, but it is also 2024, in a European nation where most Ukrainians are at this point just going about their business because they have not been forced to do otherwise, and their lives have not changed enough. It is human nature. Even in WWII, countries like France, Poland, Belguim and others had between 10-20% of their male military age men mobilized. There were plenty of men that did not volunteer to fight and defend their country, it took a draft and forced conscription in places like Germany and the Soviet Union to get their numbers up high. Even in the USA, near 70% of those that fought in WWII for the USA were drafted, and the number of volunteers in Europe were even lower. The draft and forcing people to serve is how the numbers swell. Ukraine doesn't have a massive number or men voluntarily serving, and the longer this goes on, the number of those volunteering will get smaller - especially in a stalemate. When this becomes a big enough problem, they will force service - and that has not happened yet. You would hope it would be higher - but it is 2024, the war has been going on for close to 3 years.... the vast majority of Ukranians have not been invaded by or bombed by Russia... they are still working, going home, there is electricity and their lives are relatively untouched - as the war has been a stalemate for sometime. When it becomes worse, and the government forces service - we will see some men attempt to flee, and we will see others that are forced to serve like has happened in the past. First - that was simply a different time, and society and the idea of serving in the military was viewed differently - but even taking that into account, the USA had a draft, and the vast majority of US soldiers fought because they were drafted - and many others volunteered BEFORE they were drafted for the purpose of having some control of the branch they would be in, and what they would do. Now keep in mind a foreign soldiers boots basically never set foot on U.S. soil the entirety of WW2 as well... Ukrainian men are, writ large, not doing enough and they will be subjugated if the apathy continues. That's Ukraine's biggest problem right now. Apathy. They, writ large, clearly don't care enough about not being subjugated.[/QUOTE] I don't disagree with you that apathy is a problem - but the reality is that most men will not volunteer to die in battle, especially in 2024 - and short of them being forced, it isn't going to change - the lives of many Ukrainian men isn't THAT different than it was before the war at this point.
Yes. Well said. I wish Russia had a better government. We wouldn't have all of this senseless killing. I am most concerned about the growth of our entire population, particularly education, health and economics. The general health, both physical and mental, are trending down. The strong middle class is getting hollowed out. Our education system is struggling. Birthrates are going down. This isn't limited to the United States either, so this isn't a pissing contest over political parties. Its just a sign of the time. But it doesn't mean we can't use our national wealth to do some internal nation building. I dont think the US should abandon NATO, however, NATO is European centric. Europe should be running the show at all levels. They need to be making the best decisions that impact them, not the United States. However I don't think this is possible because Europe is too proud and individualistic. They really need to come together as one country and model the US system. I dont think this has happened before. Ultimately what I fear is broader escalation and potential fracturing of NATO. Putin is driving the narrative and everyone else is just responding. There is a significant enough probability NATO dividing. A high enough probability that we should be more concerned about that than Putin conquering Ukraine.
Yeah, Ukraine is facing a demographics crunch much like Russia. Kiev hasn't forced conscription because males at that age range are needed to support a postwar economy and make replacement babies. Theyre planning for the future with victory in mind. That doesn't indicate slave mentality to me. This is a nation everyone dismissed at the onset of invasion. Easier to prod holes on the couch than on the battlefield against what was presumably the world's 2nd strongest military power.
Interesting that I agree with the supporting arguments but have a completely different conclusion. I might be watching too much Spaniel and Perun vids. The reason Putin is driving the narrative is because he invaded twice. He threw out all reason and measured judgement to go shock n awe in his "Special Millitary Operation", one that required a meat grinder worthy of a thousand pig slaughter houses to take over Avdiivka in order to legitimize the invasion to his base. Norway amd Finland joined NATO. The Baltic states raised their threat level and took any revanchist threats by Putin and Medfedev even more seriously. Putin thinks the West is weak and weak willed. The US is broke...Europe won't pay for it's own defense... Pulling out support for Ukraine will validate his bet. What do we do when he invades again? Support Latvia for a year then pull out because it's hard and expensive? Lithuania...Poland? The other reason to continue aid to Ukraine is because Europe needs time to prepare. Germany boosted it's defense funding but even the best estimates will take a decade to handle a Great Power conflict. Same with Japan. The war on terror made the West shift their procurement towards smaller more nimble threats. Our supply chains for missiles need time for revamping. Litoral Combat Ships will be unproductive money sinks for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Putin's oil infrastructure is crumbling as fast as his demographics and treasury. It's already a win we draw out the war, and make it so painful for him to test NATO by invading Estonia. It's the Ukrainians right to disagree with this, but they are speaking for themselves everyday and what they're asking now is more money and more aid.
I appreciate what you are trying to do here but this is a very charitable take. One that actually does paint his words in an entirely different light. For instance you say that he “wishes that Putin did not invade Ukraine”…. Yet when you read his posts he under no circumstance will admit that Putin actually was the one who invaded and will only point the finger at the US/NATO, and completely absolve any responsibility from Putin. In his initial post yesterday he even went as far as to claim that Russia is not actually at war with Ukraine… selling the Kremlin narrative that this is just a “special military operation.” He also constantly uses gaslighting techniques of trying to use liberals anti war nature or American guilt from Iraq etc. to seed self doubt of pro Democratic/liberal support of Ukraine. It’s so obvious that it’s what he’s doing because it’s so formulaic. If you want to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’s accidentally pro Putin and his heart is in the right place trying to make a case for domestic investment and just voicing his worries that fine but it doesn’t change the fact that these are still arguments that serve Putin’s propaganda narratives that are designed to change American support of the war at the base level and impact Congressional funding that ultimately serves Putins war and future conquests. Again I can appreciate you sticking up for him but it is what it is. Being civil and polite doesn’t mean that you have to misrepresent what they say out in the open just to help them seem different than they actually are.
Just because one is against 100B+ aid to a non-shithole country at war doesn't mean they're pro-putin. It's ironic you're accusing someone of misrepresentation when you're putting words in another person's mouth. I don't agree with everything SG says. He has a right to express his opinions and not be accused of motivations through the misuse of logical fallacies. A liberal yet oft forgotten concept.
I'm not putting words in his mouth. You can read his post from yesterday, and take from it what you will. To me, it's obvious that the narrative serves a purpose. If you'd like to have a more charitable translation, then by all means, translate his thinking the way you want to see it.
Yes, you are absolutely speaking for me incorrectly. I am not sure there is a narrative out there that suggest Russia did not invade Ukraine. I do not need to speak the obvious. I have never advocated Russia had a right to invade Ukraine and I have repeatedly stated all of this killing is unnecessary. I am not interested in debating who has a right to do what or if any actions are justifiable. I don't need a debate to convince me Russia is in the wrong. The importance is the decisions going forward. You can disagree with my position and we can respect each others opinions without getting into petty name calling and false assumptions. Ultimately nobody's opinions in the forum matters and there is no need to respond with an emotional response. I don't control Congress and their spending bonanza nor do I have any influence over Putin. And since you're confused about the Special Operations/Declaration of war comment(that you since edited out of your post), I will clarify for you - Yes, most of the world, including myself, views this as a war. The difference lies with the Russian people. Wars often end when the populace gets exhausted by the endless killing. Examples are WWI, Korea, Vietnam and our recent 20 year occupation in Afghanistan. Currently Russians (populace) is not largely bothered by the war. Russia just experienced a 'terrorist attack' (regardless of who gave the orders), the Russian people are angry. Russians are not stupid drones. They are human just like you and I. And just like the US went on a 20 year campaign against 'war on terror', supported by much of the US population, invading a country who had nothing to do with it, I don't put it past Putin to allow a few more of these incidents to happen to whip the population in a war frenzy. That is a very bad outcome. And the West needs to be very careful not to contribute to this mania. The West needs to find ways to temper Putins aggressions, not punish the Russian people. Forcing Russia into a deep economic depression is not the wise way to go. Someone worse than Putin could take power. This is what happened in Nazi Germany. There is no easy answer and Putin knows this. Throwing tens and hundreds of billions of dollars into this war is not the ultimate solution nor will it fix anything. Europe needs to unite. Western Europe needs to come under a common goal, give up some of their self sovereignty and decide if they want to burden the responsibility of Eastern Europe ... or otherwise leave them to the wolves. Europe is at an economic disadvantage currently and its not helping when each country is doing whatever is in its own best interest...and thats not even getting into the political side. A unified Europe will greatly help. This is why I continually say the US needs to back out of the leadership role and let Europe fix this issue. With the US at the helm, we will continue to push our best interest first, not Europes. Its prudent to put Europes best interest first.
Russian has a 3x advantage in man power. The only question is when Russia will win. Then the next question will be at what cost. If Ukraine can make the war last another 2 years, Russia may want to accept a truce due to equipment losses. Some of the Russian losses can not be easily replaced if at all ... planes, ships, submarines, tanks. An issue for the West / NATO is the longer the war lasts, the more likely Russia attacks the other border NATO countries, to lock in any wavering support at home. The US / NATO response will depend greatly on who the American POTUS is.
