I really don't get why Montero seems so hittable when his stuff still looks good. It's like why Whitley's 96 mph fastball seems like batting practice. I never played baseball at a high level so I don't get it. Is it because the path of the ball looks exactly like what a throwing machine looks like?
Command, same as the vast majority of pitchers who struggle. You don't put it where you want it then it's gonna get hit or ignored no matter how good it is. He actually wasn't terrible all of last season, he had a 2.75 ERA the last 81 games of the year and pretty good peripherals. He was also good in his first 4 playoff outings before laying an egg in his last one. I'm actually more optimistic than most that he's gonna be at least serviceable this season because of how he finished last year. It would sure be nice if we had more than 3 guys we could depend on ahead of him though.
He throws hard, but none of his pitches have out of the ordinary raw movement. His changeup does have wiggle. His sinker plays well when he locates it well which is like a one good season out of 3. There are plenty of relievers that throw a non-fastball a lot, but that is usually a power curve, a slider, or cutter (all glove side action pitches). There are very few (Devenski is only one that pops off my mind) that shove their changeup down the batter's throat over and over again. Montero uses his change mostly against lefties which makes sense. Astros have had him throw it less versus RHPs in exchange for more sinkers than prior to becoming an Astro. I get that changeups play better reverse splits, but his seems to be fine against RHPs.
We have 2 closers that are considered the best in the business, and they may not even be our best reliever. Abreu is just nasty.
I’ve been saying this for a year now on pod. Just so you know- it’s not really supported by the numbers. Hader was probably slightly better than Abreu last year.
I don't know. . . Their numbers are close, and equally impressive in my opinion. Abreu: 72 IP= 2.98 FIP, 1.042 WHIP Hader: 56.1 IP=2.69 FIP, 1.104 WHIP If you factor in the extra15.2 innings (28% more) that Abreu was able to provide at that level and he was more versatile by pitching 7th, 8th, and 9th innings regularly it's at least a dead heat. Tiebreaker: Abreu: $745,200 Hader: $14.1M
I don’t think anyone has done anything to bump Kessinger or Singleton off the roster but I am excited as hell about Loperfido and it’s nice to see Julks looks like a great option waiting in AAA. Mildly disappointed Whitcomb and Cabbage and Wagner and Hensley and Salazar and Hamilton haven’t looked very good. Leon has raised his stock a little.
MacT had an updated opening day roster prediction yesterday that listed the bullpen as: Hader, Pressly, Montero, Bielak, Sousa, Coleman, Blanco, and Martinez. Abreu is suspended for the first 2 games of the season, so they had Coleman as taking his spot for that short time. That prediction aligns with what I’d expect. Not ideal to start the season with 5 relative unknowns but with Abreu back it’s only 4, and I like Bielak and Martinez plenty as the 12th and 13th pitchers. So they really just need Sousa and Blanco or Coleman to work out. It wouldn’t shock me if they pulled off a trade for a 7th inning type.
I like the big Jon story, but realistically how does he warrant a roster spot? No defensive value, and he had an OPS+ something around 70. I don’t doubt they start him off on the big league roster, but that should be an easy cut if Loperfido proves to be ready.
Based on playing time and who has already been sent to minor league camp, it looks like there are 8 players competing for the last 2 bench spots. With Dubon and Caratini already on the bench, all 8 positions have a back up, even if it's not an ideal backup. Dubon doesn't look to be able to play 1b, has played very very little 3B, and has a bat that is a much better fit in the inf than OF. Caratini can play C and 1B, but as the #2 catcher is not an ideal #2 1B. So, ideally those 2 spots should cover 1B, 3B, and OF. And a LH bat is probably a given. Cabbage (LH 1B/OF) - 3 for 29 w/ 2 doubles, 13 Ks and 0 BB. Kessinger ( RH all 4 inf) - 5 for 29 w/ 0 xbh, 11 Ks and 0 BB. Julks (RH OF) - 8 for 26 w/ 1 double and 2 HR, 2 Ks and 1 BB. Singleton (LH 1B) - 5 for 23 w/ 1 double, 8 Ks and 1 BB. Hensley (RH all 4 inf, LF) - 4 for 23 w/ 1 double, 12 Ks and 3 BB. Loperfido ( LH 1b, 2b, OF) - 8 for 21 w/3 doubles and 1 triple, 9 Ks and 3 BB. Whitcomb (RH SS, 3b, 2b) - 5 for 21 w/2 doubles, 6 Ks and 1 BB. (but has 3 errors) Leon ( RH OF) - 4 for 14 w/ 1 HR, 5 Ks and 0 BB. Immediately what stands out is the lack of BB and high K/BB%. Clearly Julks and Loperfido have had the best spring, but Joey is short on AA/AAA experience and Corey has limited defensive versatility. If they are the winners, then the team must be confident in Dubon's ability to play 3B. Because both Julks and Leon hit RH and only play OF (despite both seeing inf time in the minors) I can't see Leon making the team. Julks has simply outplayed him and he's not yet on 40 so no need to rush. Kessinger, Hensley, and Whitcomb have all had terrible springs but one of them probably needs to be on the team for defensive versatility. It's probably Kessinger by default. If Kessinger (or Hensley) make the team, then the likely final player should be a lefthanded bat who can play OF but also a better run producing option at 1b. Ideally that would have been Cabbage but he simply needs to cut his Ks down in AAA. So: Loperfido if they think he's ready. Julks is they don't, and don't feel a LH bat or another 1b isn't important Singleton if they do want a LH bat, and/or another 1b, and don't feel Loperfido is ready. My money is on Kessinger and Singleton but want Kessinger and Loperfido. Regardless who it is, I think they will have a very very short leash.
Good thing AAA is in Sugar Land because it looks to me like the front end of the bullpen will be a revolving door until the deadline.
Spring training is almost always too small of a sample to base a long-term roster decision on. Singleton is what he was last season: a lefty bat who is a legit threat to hit a home run or walk in every at bat. He has value; obviously, his downside is that he projects to strike out a ton and he can only play 1B and DH. But as the 13th position player on a team with 2 everyday-caliber players ahead of him on the bench in Dubon and Caratini, the ask will be very narrow, limited mostly to pinch hitting and filling in at 1B/DH (although he can effectively back up all 3 OF spots due to McCormick/Meyers versatility and Alvarez’s ability to play LF). Exposing him to waivers to try to get Loperfido or whoever 50-70 pa over the course of the whole season just doesn’t make sense.
Very possible - bullpens are probably the most volatile area of a team. They do have some high velocity arms but not a lot of certainty. I am surprised they haven't spoken to Justin Wilson....
With Dubon covering 2nd and 3rd base, and SS all they really need is a LH outfielder "Loperfido", and someone to cover 1st base "Loperfido".
