Yea results don't matter anymore, I get that...but you know, every single player doesn't always perform like his analytical numbers say he will. AND, Garcia barely pitched above single A before he came up, thinking we have already seen his best because some of the analytics say he isn't as good as what we have seen already, is kind of foolish in my opinion Lance has been my favorite Astro in this era, i'm the one always saying NO when people talk about the advantages of trading him I'm just saying that, like usual, CF posters undervalue many of our guys, and Garcia is definitely one of them
And yet all analytical statistics are? Anyway Lance could potentially "start" games this year. But regardless of if he "starts" or comes out of the pen, thinking of him as someone who will regularly give you even 5 innings and outing is not likely being realistic. Most of the time when people start comparing injuries for pitchers its usually TJ. Can't really compare his recovery period to players coming back from TJ, and the tough thing is there isn't a long list of players who have had a similar situation as Lance as far as trying rest, then almost being back before a setback, then finally having surgery on the flexor tendon. A lot of unknowns with Lance If by the playoffs he can give us two 2-3 inning outings in a 7 game series, then come back and give us another 2-3 inning outing in the next series, we should be extremely happy That's really my biggest hope for Lance is to be able to have some positive impact in the playoffs for us, and go into 2025 ready to roll
actually that is exactly the purpose of analyticsl statistics. Human bodies and human health are highly variable. Analytics are specifically used to try and give a level way to compare without those variables.
The key word in this post is TRY I loved the Luhnow model and believe in analytics. However they aren't the be all end all some make them out to be. It takes Analytics and gut feel to build a championship contender.
It's ironic that analytics tries to make all things equal to determine the best coarse of action. This is done by using the largest possible sample size. But the larger the sample size, the more it denies deviations from trends and exceptions to the standards. Like hitters who are better against pitchers of the same handedness.
He got hurt in June in spring training so ended his season healthy. The injury was most likely bc he elected to rehab b4 coming back vs getting surgery. So I don't really think he got hurt bc he came back as a starter vs reliever.
That's not how sports analytics works though... and intro stats over simplify it. Human emotions and feel can be inserted as an additional variable. What was once unqualifiable is now quantifiable with biometric instruments. Like... yes, someone can be .800 OPS hitter if all things equal but additional variables such as rest, mental state, and such can be factored in.
Right, I understand them extremely well I also understand that they are not 100% predictors, and some players results don't match up with them and that stays consistent I see potential improvement from Garcia, you obviously only see regression. Hope i'm right
I actually do think Garcia has some upside and hope he improves. I just don't think he has the talent of McCullers or any chance (outside of injury) to be the better pitcher. But lots of very good pitchers happen to be worse than Lance.
I know you don't care about results But that 3.5 ERA Garcia has is in over 300 innings pitched, so it's not all luck Lance has been under 3.5 in about half of his seasons, only twice has he done it in over 100 innings though, and only once has he been significantly better and that was in 47 innings in 2022 Analytics may say Lance could be a true Ace, front of the rotation stud, low 2's ERA and dominant strike out numbers Analytics may say Garcia could possibly be a mid rotation pitcher if he gets some luck But to this point in over 350 innings Garcia has been basically the same pitcher as Lance (On the field results, not spin rate and Xthis Xthat) And again, Lance is my favorite of this era of Astros baseball, so i'm not saying this to degrade him in any way. We won our first ring shortly after Lance basically screamed to the Yankmees Hey here comes a curveball and they still had zero chance to touch it
I don't know where or how you get I don't care about actual results? I simply look at much more than actual past results to best guess future performance. Actual results can be misleading when projecting the future, but they damn sure mean a lot about the games that are over. Who did better, the batter that hit a long fly ball that is robbed of a HR by a great play or the guy who hits a dribbler to 3B for a single Now based on that info only which is likely to have a better at bat next time? I think there is a lot of luck involved in actual results therefore Analytics are better at determining what is likely to happen in the future than hoping the luck doesn't change
Meet MLB's oldest, wildest pitching coach Spoiler LESS THAN FOUR months after the Arizona Diamondbacks' postseason run ended with a World Series loss to the Texas Rangers, baseball's oldest pitching coach is back in his comfort zone, instructing his pitching staff as he walks the backfields of spring training. His body might someday tell him it has had enough, but that time hasn't yet arrived for 75-year-old Brent Strom, and with a freshly signed two-year contract, his entire focus is on getting the D-backs one step further than the team went in November. "I've been conditioned to lose the World Series," Strom said between Brandon Pfaadt pitches during live batting practice one recent morning. "I've lost three of them. All three on our home field. Watching the other team celebrate on our home field is doubly painful. "I'm like the Buffalo Bills." … FOUR DECADES BEFORE he was making World Series mound visits, Strom was coaching in the Dodgers system when conversations with Sandy Koufax helped crystallize the overriding principle that has shaped his career: A rising fastball is better than any sinker, even as the latter pitch was spreading across the sport. "Koufax made me realize all we are, are controlled throwers," Strom said. "We're not pitchers. The best way to ruin a pitcher is to make him a pitcher. ... If I get an 18-year-old Koufax, an 18-year-old [Dwight] Gooden and an 18-year-old Bob Feller, you want me to teach them sinkers? They're born doing f---ing this." He shot his hand out to indicate a fastball. "As Koufax once said, do you know who throws sinkers? People that can't throw fastballs." But not everyone was ready for Strom's forward-thinking philosophy. Between 1996 and 2005, he made stops with the Astros, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres and Montreal Expos before finding himself completely out of the game. Without a baseball job, Strom helped his wife open a dog grooming business in Tucson, Arizona -- he had gone from discussing pitching with the best left-hander in MLB history to caring for pets. "I was cleaning dingleberries. ... That was my job," Strom said. "I was washing dogs." But soon after, then-St. Louis Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow gave Strom a chance to work with the Cardinals' minor league pitchers -- but only their minor leaguers, according to the coach. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan had all of the say when it came to pitchers already playing in St. Louis, and they weren't looking for differing philosophies. Duncan preached sinkers -- Strom believed in rising four-seamers. "I was not received very well by La Russa or Duncan," Strom said. "If it was up to them, I would have been fired after a year. In fact, they told me I was only allowed to work with the kids in the Dominican or Low-A, no one higher." "[In one meeting] they asked if anyone knows the batting average on ground balls compared to fly balls," he said. "The comment was made that ground balls are .233 and fly balls are .407. So I raised my hand and said, 'Is a line drive considered a fly ball?' They said yes. I said, 'That's bulls---.' A line drive is .700. A real fly ball is .233 and a ground ball is .231. "I got over my skis a little bit on that one." Though the Cardinals went in another direction after run-ins like that, Luhnow continued to believe in Strom's message -- and upon getting the GM job in Houston, he hired the then 64-year-old as the Astros' pitching coach. With Strom guiding one of MLB's top pitching staffs, the Astros won the World Series in 2017 and became a perennial playoff team. But after losing in the World Series in 2021, he decided it was time to move on. "I put a lot of pressure on myself," Strom said. "Heaviest is the head that wears the crown. Winning in Houston became expected. I was living and dying by the whole thing." That's when the Diamondbacks called, offering an appealing opportunity: a new challenge, closer to home and a chance to bring his philosophy to a new group of pitchers. "Brent Strom brought a new glossary, a new pitching glossary," manager Torey Lovullo said. "And he's the architect of what we do every single day on the mound. "There's a fire in his belly, at 70-plus years old, that I hope we all have. The language changed immediately. The focus as to what we needed to do, pitch to pitch, batter to batter and game to game changed instantly." Asked what Lovullo meant by a language change, Strom reeled off a few of his favorite terms: "Top-shelf cutters. Elevated fastballs. Stay out of the honey hole." These were more than just buzzwords; Strom brought a philosophy that resonated with a younger group of pitchers eager to experience big league success. "Three things impact the outcome of the game most," Strom explained. "Win the battle of three: Throw two of the first three pitches for strikes. Secondly, eliminate or shut down the amount of hard-hit balls. And create chases. Get hitters to chase at balls." His pitchers nod their heads when reminded of Strom's intense but caring attitude and point to his tireless work ethic as key to gaining their trust. Strom is seemingly always thinking about pitching, sending a middle-of-the-night message to reliever Joe Mantiply while vacationing in Europe and a Christmas Eve note to Merrill Kelly with some holiday reading material about hitters' numbers against him on a certain pitch. "I haven't been around a pitching coach that works as hard as he does," Mantiply said. "It's nothing to get a text or email at 3 in the morning. He's always looking for ways to get better. I don't know if he sleeps." THE OCTOBER SUCCESS of Arizona and Houston under Strom has been a victory for the style he has spent so much of his career spreading. The D-backs, like the Astros before them, dominated the top of the zone last postseason. "For my whole career, I was told [because] I don't have velocity ... make sure you throw the ball down and away, and then we realized that if you throw the ball up in the zone it's going to work a lot better," Arizona closer Paul Sewald said. "He's a huge proponent of rising fastballs and sweeping sliders." Strom's guidance isn't without hiccups -- Madison Bumgarner was released last year after posting a 10.26 ERA. And there's the occasional salty moment, according to Diamondbacks pitching strategist and former major league pitcher Dan Haren. "I can sense how things are going during a game to whether I'm going to get a text or call afterwards," Haren said. "He's really emotional. I'm OK with being the punching bag and then giving back info in a way we can all get better and grow from it. "And he can be funny." That sense of humor perhaps was never more apparent than in Strom's most memorable mound visit. In a game at Yankee Stadium while working for the Royals, he went to the mound to talk with pitcher Dan Reichert. "He walked two guys in a row on eight pitches," Strom recalled. "I didn't know what to say to him, we need to get [Jorge] Posada out. I said, 'Dan, you have to get him out fast.' And he said, 'Why?' I said, 'Because I have to take a s---.' He started laughing. The catcher started laughing. I knew I had him right there. He said three or less pitches. I said make it two or less. I turned around and in front of 50,000 fans ... I waddled off the mound. "And the SOB threw a sinker for a double play. Probably my greatest mound visit ever." The master of mound visits, indeed. Preparing for another season of them isn't easy but Strom is committed to 2024 and he's still happy doing what he's doing. "The body will accommodate the goal that's required," Strom said, seemingly referring to himself as much as his pitchers. "I don't know how much further I want to do this but there is some unfinished business here. That's why I came back."
And yet that variation and error seems to work for some and against others. THAT is luck. If perfectly random, the "luck" would average out over time.
