Ya i’m just more interested in what’s best long term for the team, and that would be waiting a year to max him. There’s no rational argument against it. If he was picked 2nd like jalen then sure, but at 16 it’s dumb
Realistically we are looking at a best case scenario of Brooklyn finishing with the 7th worst record, which would give us a 32% chance at at top 4 pick and a 7.5% chance at the #1 pick. That’s the best case scenario if they fall below Toronto. But they aren’t falling below Memphis or Portland. So we just have to be realistic that our best odds for that Brooklyn pick to turn into a top pick in a weak draft are slightly less than 1 in 3. And if Brooklyn finish’s where they currently rank, it will be a 1 in 4 chance. I see this pick as having good value, but probably not as valuable as many folks in this forum think. I would be looking to trade this pick, and if not for a player, then for a future pick in a better draft. Obviously if there’s a Tari, Cam or Sengun at #7 or #8 then I can see using the pick, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that it’s going to be a mid-late lotto pick (more like a mid round pick in a better draft).
I have run the Tankathon simulator once this year (about a week ago) and we got the #4 pick. That's all I needed to see. What we saw this year was that the play-in severely limits the amount of players that will be available at the deadline in any year. If we are going to make a move, we need to do it in the offseason. With this being a lackluster class, I have no problem trading this year's BKN pick in a blockbuster deal. Trade pieces we can offer that I would be willing to part with: '24 BKN pick '26 BKN pick '28 HOU pick FVV - $42.8M Steven Adams - $12.6M Jalen Green - $12.4M Jock - $8M Tate - $7M There is enough there to get any trade that comes available done, and none of them have guaranteed salary beyond next season. The question is who the target should be. Donovan Mitchell, Dejounte Murray, Trae Young are the most recent names I have heard. Is there anyone else of significance that could possibly be dealt this summer?
A top 10 pick is always valuable, I don’t care what anyone says. You don’t trade that unless you’re getting really good value.
Good post. I also believe our 2030 1st rounder become available to offer this summer. The pick swaps also have some value. I’d be hesitant to move Fred before summer 2025. And the reason is that I can’t see us winning without him next season. And we really need to win next season. Also that yr 3 team option means we can still move him for value after getting another great year out of him. Honestly, if Tari and Cam keep developing, I’m not sure Dillon Brooks wouldn’t be in consideration for trade inclusion at some point.
I essentially agree with your takes on both FVV and Brooks, but in order for me to send either of those guys out, I need to be getting back some serious win-now pieces. If we were to send Fred out for Young or Mitchell, I still see us being a winning team.
It’s weird. I started doin tankathon with the brooks pick and five gotten more number one pick results with the Nets pick the now getting last year with out our own lottery pick. I used to have to do the sim 10+ times to get a result with a number one selection FRP for us last season. I be getting that on less than 5 tries for the Brooklyn pick.
I think trading for young or Mitchell is idiotic considering Amen and Cam’s fast ascension. The only if in my mind on our team is Jalen. We will be playoff contenders next year, if we do nothing else except adding our draft pick. Trading for anything but a sg better than Jalen without giving up any our core is the only thing to even consider.
Someone help me out here. FVV's contract is for three seasons. Isn't the third season a team option? If so, he'd be essentially an expiring contract this summer for trade purposes (if Stone wanted to go all Morey cutthroat), or (here's where I have a bit of doubt, CBA and all that) in summer 2025 the Rockets could maybe give him a new contract for more years closer suited to his actual talent (i.e., we had to overpay to bring him here last summer) and future role (more of a 6th-man backup, with Amen able to collect minutes anywhere from 1-2-3 spots).
I agree. No need to make an “all-in” trade yet. The 24/25 Rockets should be a playoff team. With Adams healthy, internal growth of the young core and drafting/signing/trading for 2-3 decent outside shooters they should win 45-50 games.
Those picks can actually land stars in the draft if they end up high enough. They are super valuable.
Crazy how folks dismiss a top 5-10 pick, when many times more of the solid players can be had in this range. Way too opten the top 4 picks are boon or bust, just look at the past 10 drafts and top 4 picks aren’t necessarily the toast of the draft after it’s all said and done by a career.
Mitchell and Young are better SGs than Jalen. Edit: I would like a big SG next to Amen, but I'm not going to say no to great players.
This idea that its a weak draft is overplayed. There are some really good players in this draft. There just isn't a Wemby or Zion or Lebron. Give me the kid that's shooting .520 from 3 point land ....
Especially crazy considering we got Sengun, Tari, and Cam outside of the lottery in the three last drafts. I'm excited for a pick in the 7-10 range. And "only" a 25% chance of it being a top 4 pick? I'm happy about that too.
