My bar for his success is based on what historical NBA rebuilds take and are like. Houston has had a long run of success and hasn't seen what a true, tough rebuild looks like for a frame of reference. We're doing great and on pace for having a core of 19-22-year-olds for the most part. IMO, comparing this rebuild to Hakeem/Sampson or I've heard posters say KD/Harden/Russ OKC is unrealistic IMO. Hakeem is a top ten and top five player all time, Sampson is a HOF player. The OKC trio were three future MVPs. Decades of first round picks don't become rotational players, fewer starters and a fraction HOF, MVP or top 10 players all time. That is a major outlier and the comparison should be the average rebuild. In phase one we tanked for draft picks/assets (which many fans didn't understand was the goal), we pulled Sengun (likely an all-star), Jalen, Tari, Bari, Amen, and Cam. That is a draft haul to have that many players hit in consecutive years. Phase one was a success IMO, all the other Gms didn't draft Sengun, Tari, Cam, etc. Stone signed Ime, FVV, and Brooks. They were exactly what we needed for a young rebuilding team and other GMs didn't do that, many fans hated it at the time, we're projected to have a 13-18+ win record improvement over last year and most agree those signings were excellent. Most of the playoff teams have players older with years of growth and losing seasons before they got there. SGA is 25, even Ant has a 28 and 31-year-old star next to him. Our core is 19-22, they need patience and multiple seasons to develop. My bar is year-over-year improvement record wise and player development during phase 2. If we hit the play in this year that's a homerun with playoffs as the goal, but I don't expect that from 21-year-olds in the first year. 30-40+ wins is more realistic (My italicized below is for other readers to consider, so please don't take it as I'm directing it to you personally FYI) The goal is to win a championship long-term, and not sacrifice young talent for short-term goals or a playoff treadmill team. To provide context, I posted this previously, here is what a real NBA rebuild looks like. Spoiler Fan is short for fanatic and yes it comes with typical impatience, overhype, underrating and knee-jerk reactions after wins or losses. So yes, this team is actually on pace and doing well for the rebuild. Everything after that is great, but if you expect that, IMO that is expecting too much, and you need to give them seasons to continue to develop. Many rebuilds take years, some even decades, Sacramento, New York Knicks, Minnesota's history, Denver before Jokic. Here is an old 2017 article of historical NBA rebuilds from the Bulls Athletic writer highlights/summary: Athletic Article: History of rebuilding shows a long path ahead for the Bulls (2017): The nightmare scenarios Minnesota Timberwolves: 13 year playoff drought Sacramento Kings: 11 year playoff drought Phoenix Suns: 7 year playoff drought "The record for longest postseason drought in NBA history is held by the Los Angeles Clippers, who went 15 years from the 1977 through 1991 seasons without sniffing the playoffs. Donald Sterling bought the franchise in 1982 during the beginning of that streak and ran the team’s culture into the ground. The Kings and Suns have also been plagued by impatient ownership groups that have pressured their general managers into some bad win-now decisions that have only ended up setting them back farther. While there are a lot of criticisms of the Reinsdorf family’s ownership of the Bulls, give them credit for not destructively meddling. The Wolves, Kings and Suns show just how scary rebuilding can be. Even if you hit on some talent, it might still be a long wait. The Wolves drafted a decent core of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, the Kings had DeMarcus Cousins, and the Suns acquired Goran Dragic and, more recently, drafted Devin Booker. Those players alone weren’t enough to carry their teams to playoff berths. Aimless rebuilds Orlando Magic: 5 year playoff drought New York Knicks: 4 year playoff drought ... Both franchises show that if you don’t hit on a string of picks for a few years in a row, your rebuilding project can get stuck in the mud. Promising situations Denver Nuggets: 4 year playoff drought Philadelphia 76ers: 5 year playoff drought The Nuggets and Sixers have taken patient approaches to rebuilding and drafted well. ... Even with a solid approach, it’s taken a long time for them to get to this point. They both stand a reasonable chance to end their playoff droughts this season, but they show the benefits of not rushing a rebuild." https://theathletic.com/76917/2017/...ilding-shows-a-long-path-ahead-for-the-bulls/[\SPOILER]
Well the postseason is just a hyped up reg season, everything is just an extension This play-in stuff is just drunk illiterates sitting in a room and said lets grant 6 guaranteed spots and lets turn the last 4 into a NCAA style play-in Which now has extended to in-season tourney Everything else you stated is pretty much on cue and what I have mentioned in my own two cent version
Also: Hakeem and Ralph were both #1 overall picks and there was almost no discussion about anyone else deserving that ranking. Not to mention that players in the draft back then were more seasoned because they couldn't turn pro until after their junior year of college. So not only would they reach maturity as a player a couple of years earlier in their NBA careers, but it was also that much easier to predict who would develop into true stars. Today we're picking kids just a year out of high school and hoping things pan out. It wasn't an exact science back in the day, and it's that much harder now.
Not sure what point you are trying to make. You said Rox should be Orlando light I'm telling you Orlando was rebuilding so long they drafted Vucevic, watched him be an all star, watched him get washed, traded him for other pieces and they still rebuilding. OTH the Rox had just a 3 yr time frame look at Orlando 3 yrs after Dwight left you're not really making an equivalent comparison.
Your 36-38 wins projection seems very optimistic at the moment. Rox fans will be lucky if we win more than 32.
I don't know who are the "most agree" people but people in my surrounding were very angry for employing "transition period salary fillers" (i.e. FVV and Dillon Brooks) and ineffective bench players. Rockets wasted $85M+/year for this adventure which won't bring 13-18+ wins over last year record. Athletic article seems good but does not mention that Donald Sterling never focused on winning. As far as I remember he was the main reason for NBA bringing minimum salary bar. Otherwise he would be happy to play whole season with $5M total salary pay-roll. As there is no relegation in American sports he would not mind for bottom finishes as long as he made money. We had a Donald Sterling experience in London.Nuggets owners Kroenke/Walton family started to get shares of Arsenal Football Club since mid 2000s and they are the main shareholders now. Between 1996 to 2004 Arsenal finished the seasons either as winner or as runner-up but as Kroenke bought the club they have never become champions again. Rebuilt: 20 years. Why? The owners had no idea about the sport. It was just another franchise for them. I was reading a book tonight and Tony Benn, a former MP and ex-president of "Stop the war coalition" was quoting at foreword:"Every generation has to fight the same battles again and again and every time it is the confidence of campaigners that determines the speed of their success". Rebuild and the speed. The key word was determination for Tony Benn. I would like to add know-how also. FVV,Dillon Brooks, Bullocks,Landale are huge mistakes to employ. Jury is out for Ime,Jeff,Holiday. If we have to improve our young core, the management should not let Dillon Brooks to attempt 19 shots today (only 26% fgp).FVV was paid superstar salary but FVV-Superstar is a kind of oxymoron. Rockets did not have KD/Russ/Harden but exceptionally drafted top-5 type of 3 players as mid-FRPs: Alp-Tari-Cam together with #2,#3,#4 draft picks. Is there any team in NBA history to pick All-star caliber mid-FRPS 3 consecutive years but also having top 4 picks at the same period? May be, I don't know. Rockets had unique draft history between 2021-2023 and can't waste the opportunity because of mediocre transition period salary fillers and average FO/Coaching.
I believe the German system is not bad.....50% property kept by the clubs themselves.... You cannot go over the top. Not total ownership. If Kroenke let Arteta do his thing, multiple championships could be had.
Well in short, how to rebuild with promising situations (like Nuggets and Sixers) is to draft superstar/MVP players (Jokic and Embiid) and another star players (Murray and Maxey).. then you add players from trades.. right?
