It's a matter of Bidenomics!

Bazinga!

Have fun watching the Powell interview with your eyes covered. I'll await that reply with baited breath.

 

Im just arguing for context and nuance instead of just posting large numbers. You consistently don’t talk about what we are actually spending money on. And guess what…. You still aren’t talking about what we are spending the money on.

Of course serving a trillion dollar interest payment isn’t sustainable…. But we do have levers to pull.

 

Of course they work together…. The Treasury is the bridge between monetary policy (Fed) and fiscal policy (Congress). Nothing nefarious

 

Trump: "I'll make your prescription drug prices more and implement a 60% tariffs on everything imported "

Dipshit MAGA - @LosPollosHermanos trump is so much better on economy!!!

 

Looks like MMTy brain Stephanie Kelton will carry enough water to fill the Hoover Dam in the coming years when it comes to the debt debate.

Federal forecasters: Budget gap to top $1.6T this year, growing another $1T over next decade

CBO's projection is rosier than estimates from last year, thanks in part to the bipartisan debt deal Congress passed last summer.

The federal budget gap is expected to top $1.6 trillion this year and grow by another $1 trillion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

In its latest 10-year outlook for the federal budget and the economy, the federal forecaster said the widening deficit, or the difference between how much money the government spends and takes in, is largely driven by a greater share of federal spending on net interest costs, an aging population, and higher spending on mandatory programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

Federal spending on net interest costs, in particular, is ballooning. Beginning next year, the amount of money that the government spends on servicing federal debt is expected to be greater in relation to the size of the economy than at any other point since 1940, according to the budget office.

CBO’s deficit projections are still lower than last year's estimate, thanks in part to the bipartisan debt limit deal Congress passed last summer, greater economic output and stagnant government funding more than four months into fiscal 2024.

Relative to the size of the economy, federal debt is expected to rise from 99 percent this year to 116 percent of GDP in the next decade, blowing past its historical high and skyrocketing to 172 percent of GDP by 2054.

Those debt projections are lower than the budget office’s past forecast, as well. Last year CBO predicted the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 129 percent of GDP within a decade, and 192 percent within 30 years.

On the heels of a now-doomed border security deal in the Senate that sought to curb immigration, the budget office also notes that higher immigration is contributing to a bigger workforce, boosting economic growth and increasing revenue by about $1 trillion over a decade. CBO expects a surge in immigration to last through 2026, and projects that the labor force will have 5.2 million more people in 2033 compared to the agency’s projections last year.

The economy “grew strongly” in 2023, compared with the previous year, CBO notes. The budget office also said inflation should continue slowing this year, in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent, while the central bank is expected to reduce interest rates in the coming months. Inflation then “ticks up” slightly in 2025, the budget office predicts, before falling slightly.
​

 

I didn't mean it to be nefarious.

I wrote that both fiscal and monetary policy supercharged the economy, and focused upon the Fed's decision to keep rates near zero during the reopening as the cause for massive asset bubbles that's still ongoing. It does cause inflation in housing and rent, and even if the inflation housing numbers "look better" right now, and renters are still paying jacked up rates from 2021 without any recourse. This will continue until people can't pay those rents/mortgages or the landowners default/sell their property.

Somehow that's a false narrative because of whatever I wrote before.

 

If you live in a trump or Biden dichotomy and it’s too much mental work to process more I can see why you’d drive yourself insane like this

**** both of them

 

If you care about the debt that the only solution is voting for biden. Trump is just going pass another tax scam for Wall Street and cut the IRS budget even though it's shown that's the best ROI for the government.

Trump doesn't give a **** about the debt and his policies will make debt worse. Cutting IRS budget, more tax cut scams, not letting Medicare negotiate lower drug prices will only add trillions to the national debt

 

You claim you're concerned about the national debt but not allowing Medicare to negotiate lower prices will add half a trillion to the national debt....I just don't get how folks think trump will be better on the economy. What's the pitch?

60% tariffs on all chinnese imports
Banning Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices
kicking off 35 million people from their insurance
Adding trillions to the national debt by adding more wall street tax cuts

Amazing economic plan!

 

There are both positive and negative side effects to everything. I understand it’s often more fun to focus on the negative.

Housing is more complicated than just interest rates as the supply of housing has been lacking due to many local, NIMBY factors. Also a ton of people moved to new places that needed new housing, mostly the SW, South, and SE parts of the US. We had a record number of apartment units completed over the last several years but that will still take time to work its way through.

I think you just have a very ideological viewpoint of fiscal and monetary policy.

 

But one of them will become president…..

Just seems like you are hand waving everything away because you can’t accept that fact.

Or maybe you just want things to burn down so something new can emerge… which is potentially way worse than either Trump or Biden. IDK…

 

I think you lack prior context of what I was referring to, which is fair because no one likes reading the ugly correspondence between me and my dingleberry, and people generally don't have interest reading details that doesn't directly benefit them and is arcane and obfuscated by design.

There's been debates over whether QE causes inflation. It wasn't noticable during obama and trump despite minting ultrarich from higher asset class valuations. So I'm not arguing that.

But there's no doubt that ZIRP plus unprecedented QE to hoover up and magnify demand for loan origination during 2020 through 2022 caused a housing and refi craze where housing inflation was and is still being felt.

Didn't you wish for nuance?

 

Fair enough.

I won’t argue that ZIRP and QE wasn’t a factor in housing from 2020 to 2022 but so were supply chain issues, migration from high cost areas to lower cost areas, and NIMBYism. It’s pretty multifaceted.

That cheap money certainly fueled an apartment boom over the last several years and that’s still working through the system.

 

It attempted to serve a purpose during lockdown, but hell is a road paved with good intentions.

It's difficult to gauge the RE market especially when boomers start passing down or selling their homes in what should be a "Silver Tsunami". What you didn't list among the facets are global investors, speculators, hedge funds, private equity groups, and sovereign funds.

When central banks coordinated with their "easy money" policy, it magnified the buying power of the ultrawealthy through leverage, and ****ed up real estate prices globally. Canada and South Korea are going through their own thing that could be more impactful than China.

I might be fine letting my checking account rot with .05% interest rate, but if you're a global sovereign fund, they can't dump centi-billion accounts into stock markets despite TINA. So they park assets by buying lofts in NYC or SF and call it a night while prices moon from "limited supply". Individual families see this and consider buying another property for Airbnb or boomers don't sell their original house for a "comfier home", they buy the comfy home by leveraging with their original paid off home.

When you add distortions on top of your facets, the original intentions of price stability and full employment aren't even the main topics anymore.

It still is for voters though, even if cheerleaders or Wall Street parasites want the rate cut ASAP.

 

Do you get paid for each reply as a dingleberry propagandist? You can shoot the messenger all you want. I'd rather debate and discuss.

I'll let you take a stab at that Japan debt article txtony contributed with but you're probably to gutless to reply without looking for my words to cherry pick.

You havent watched that Frontline either, which I might be inclined to engage in a discussion with.

Par the course for our resident doodoo expert.