I am also okay with seeing if the likes of Forrest Whitley can be your mid-leverage 6th inning reliever. IMO... Stanek's first years here were a mirage... his inherited runner, WHIP, and FIP numbers was glossed over by a beautiful ERA.
Why? He's basically $18.3M for us this season. If he stays healthy it is his option to come back for $35M. I'm comfortable with Seth Martinez and Mushinski.
Yeah- worry about who the #5-7 guys in the bullpen are at the beginning of the year is silly. Those guys will likely be good enough to watch whatever innings are necessary in non competitive games and shouldn’t impact our W/L at all. There are plenty enough options to find 3 guys that will be fine (my preference would be Whitley, Bielak and Martinez- but there are like 7 other guys beyond that) in that relatively unimportant role, and if that doesn’t work then LMj and Garcia coming back in July should fix it, and if that doesn’t work we can get guys at the deadline. None of those guys are likely to be needed in the playoffs anyway. Your 8 dudes pitching in the playoffs in winning time are likely to be Presley, Abreu, Hader, JV, Framber, Javier, and whoever (2) looks the best between LMJ, Garcia, Brown, France, Montero, and urquidy. the path to victory is 4-6 innings for the starters, 3 innings from Presley, Abreu and Hader, and a swing guy (brown or LMJ or Garcia or Montero) pitching 2 if the starter goes 4 or 1 if the starter goes 5.
Stanek is a perfectly good #5 or 6 guy in the bullpen. And those guys are necessary. They are very valuable in pre-arb and early arb seasons but once they get to final arb year and especially FA they simply aren't better options than the young failed starter prospects. And those guys are needed to establish themselves and sort out which ones will move up the ladder into leverage roles. If too many veterans get signed that never happens.
Its $18M plus the guy who would easily be our top prospect and a decent candidate to replace Tucker. The player option really concerns me though. I think JV is a good bet to reach 140IP but at around a 4.00 FIP instead of the elite production we’ve gotten from him in the past. For $18M that’s not a bad deal, but from what I understand we could be on the hook for the full $35M in 2025 for likely even worse production, which would hurt a lot.
I’m excited to see Whitley out of the pen this season. He looked utterly dominant early last year and maybe switching to a relief role will help him stay healthy.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...8QFnoECA8QBQ&usg=AOvVaw1WJejpavvpsK9GhGNwBMi9 Mets will pay $17.5M of JVs option if it vests.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Astros are the AL favorite and 3rd best odds to win it all after Atlanta and LAD.
Only time will tell on the prospects, but I don’t regret the trade, because it solidified us as World Series contenders this year and next year and whose to say that we won’t find Tuckers replacement when we trade him or from a Bregman trade. I doubt seriously we let both of them walk for nothing.
If Crane were up for it, and the free agent value is there, how would yall feel about signing Jordan Montgomery and Jorge Soler, then trading Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez for 6 top 100 prospects?
I mean, there may not be that much fall off . . . When he's right, Framber is better than Monty. Soler isn't Tucker, but often . . . Tucker isn't Tucker. I'd think long and hard - but would likely increase the $$$ for 2024.
Kyle yes. Framber no. It would depend on the cost difference between signing Montgomery and extending Framber. I think Framber will return to be a perennial cy-young candidate. Kyle is not signable in my opinion so sure on that end.
It would be very interesting. I think that's a pretty good hit to 2024 and 2025. Montgomery is probably 90% the pitch Framber is so probably just a 1-2 wins less once you figure the additional bullpen usage. Solar is the big issue. You suddenly don't have a RF. I'm sure Chas can play there (or hope Cabbage is up for it or Melton/Leon are ready) but his arm is a liability. And if you do need to replace Tucker with someone besides Chas - what have you gained? Then you have 2 DHs who must share LF every day to keep them both in the lineup. Between the weakened defense and on base/baserunning reduction that is probably another 3-4 wins off the record. If this team can absorb 4-6 less wins and still compete for a World Series then the 6 top prospects make this team a potential monster 2026-2030
Soler can play RF; all of his time in the field last season was in RF. There will be a 2-3 win drop in offense and 1 win drop in pitching each of 2024-2025, with probably about $15M payroll added in 2024 and $10M added in 2025. But Houston would go from one of the worst farms in the league to likely a top 5 farm. It would be really hard to make all that happen before opening day but if they could get 6 top 100 prospects and if Soler would do something like $35M/2yr and Montgomery something like $130M/5yr I think it would be a good idea.
PECOTA has us winning the division by 9 games over the rangers and essentially tying with the yanks for best record in the AL.
So . . . would there be a benefit to trading now . . . wouldn't we just sign monty and soler . . . stay over the cap and keep FV and KT until the trade deadline? If you are going down that road, I feel like you'd get a better price at that point and then maximize your team on the front end. Garcia and Lance come back, you can evaluate, then decide who to keep/trade. But I'm not super intelligent when it comes to how all the money and timing works.
That's what I get for not looking, lol. I thought he was a DH who could play LF if he was forced to but was a butcher (a la Schwarber)
Theoretically I think it’s a great idea but the pr and clubhouse impact of downgrading the roster of a contending team who is winning their division at the deadline would be a nightmare.
A lot of people "can" play in the outfield, that doesn't mean they aren't complete dogs**t at it. Significantly downgrading our OF defense and adding another non GB pitcher to replace Framber would have more than a slight impact. Not to mention the real possibility Soler turns back into a pumpkin offensively.
