I’m not sure why this blew up with Brown and France. The Astros will give Brown another shot at starting and see how it goes. If it doesn’t work, he can be a dominant pen arm. I was not a big fan of JP France when I saw him in person last year. However he was overall effective. He had a game in Boston where he should have been pulled, and he wore down over the season but overall was relatively effective. France deserves a shot in the rotation with a solid spring. The Astros have Javier, Brown and Urquidy who don’t go deep in games. Verlander is legitimately old and he cannot go 200 innings anymore either. Even Framber, an absolute bull wore down last year. There are plenty of innings out there for France and Brown to absorb. Garcia and McCullers will be coming back in the second half. 150 innings from France with an era of 4.00 is fine for this team, and maybe he is even better. That saves the arms of guys above him. Bielak is out of options so he will likely be lost. Arrighetti and Gordon may prove worthy of a call up and some point - but a guy that can get you 150 innings with an era around 4 and is healthy is actually fairly valuable and some teams pay tens of million for that type of guy on the free agent market.
He was 102nd among starters in fWAR (FIP based) and 64th in RA9-WAR (ERA based). I think he had some contact luck last year for the ERA. That said, Dusty Baker was his manager. He was 78th in FIP the first two times through the order and 69th through 5 innings among starters (60 IP min). I kind of doubt France has as good a year as he did last year because it was a really good year while being taxed with a lot of innings per start for a rookie. That said, I really want to see what he can do if he is treated like most starting pitchers. My guess is that his velo doesn't drop as much during the year if he isn't pitching into the 7th as much as he was last year.
Curious what Maton and Stanek would be looking for as FA? Wouldn't be opposed to either of them coming back.
Urquidy was hurt last year. I'd expect him to go deeper this season. Javier and Brown were both slightly above average in IP/start last season. An Astros problem has been long relief. Baker rarely used guys multi-innings, and when he does, he didn't give them adequate rest. The Astros FO stopped giving him guys to use in long relief since they would just be used as SIRPs anyway. Despite having starters that typically pitch deeper than other teams, this still leads to the back end of the bullpen getting overworked a lot partly on Baker/Pitching coaches, partly on the FO. Click's answer was just to overbuild the depth of the pen. Brown, even with Hader, probably won't be given this option.
So basically we have the same understanding of what we want and that a winning team needs. What we have is a differing opinions about the players' expected results this year. Please correct me if I have your opinion/expectations incorrect. You think Brown will take a step Girard and France may take a step backward but neither will be big and the result is them being close enough that neither is especially better or worse than the other. Furthermore you think that since only 1 of them should be needed in a 5 man rotation, that Brown has a chance to be very good in the bullpen but France doesn't so that's the move the Astros should make. Especially since you are skeptical of all the other bullpen arms (outside of the big 3) and think he is needed there for the late innings. You think this is just a 1 year special case and Brown likely moves back to the rotation next year. If that is the case then I get it. Meanwhile, I think that the talent level between Briwn and France is huge. France was very lucky and Brown was very unlucky the majority of the year and by that equalling out Brown should be much much better than France this year. Furthermore I believe that young starting pitchers need to remain starting to get needed reps, build up the innings, and continue to develop their pitches. Relief pitchers tend to stop using their 4th and 5th pitches and usually drastically reduce the use of pitch #3. I also think that in any given game and/or season the better pitcher should throw more innings than the lesser pitchers. Additionally, I think that with 3 dominant leverage relievers, Brown's importance would be reduced further with only a small percentage of his innings being leverage or important. I also think Dana Brown has compiled a very underrated group of relief pitchers and as many as 2 or 3 unknowns or semi-knows may turn into very good pitchers this year so Hunter is not needed. So I think that is the reason we have disagreed these past few days.
I kind of think about guys like Bielak as a sacrificial annode. He is out of options and will be lost but there is some usefulness in him. I would put him in the pen as a low leverage multi inning relief pitcher. If the outcome of a game seems clear let him eat a few innings, the more the better. When it becomes clear there is nothing left of him you bring another arm up and let him go. Every inning he pitches is one less inning of wear and tear on your staff.
So much of this was because he was needed due to injury and since he was not considered a prospect or part of the future, so his usage wasn't really a concern and nobody was interested in "protecting his future"
When accounting for injury risk and track record, I think there are only 5 free agent SP available who project to be better than Urquidy: Snell, Montgomery, Kershaw, Paxton, and Lorenzen, and it’s debatable on Lorenzen. There are a lot of arms out there that may have more upside than Urquidy, but if a team without a ton of money is looking to stabilize their rotation, it seems like Urquidy would make a lot of sense. Especially if the Astros think Arrighetti will be ready in short order, trading Urquidy for a good controllable RP or a high upside prospect seems to make a lot of sense. 3 hypothetical trades: Urquidy to the Red Sox for IF Nazzan Zanatello and C Enderso Lira Urquidy to the Orioles for OF Anthony Santander, IF Carter Young, and $4M Urquidy to the Pirates for IF Alika Williams and OF Lonnie White Jr.
Just a quick thought. Would you be happy with Seth Brown as a platoon lefty and Bench OFer who can also cover 1B? I'm just randomly loking at Power from the Left in the OF and know nothing about his fielding or weaknesses. He's sort of an anti-Meyers/McCormick with power against righties and weakness vs Lefties.
I think so much of this depends on whether the team goes with a 5 or 6 man rotation. Framber, Verlander, Javier, and Brown should be in stone unless hurt before the season. I see Urquidy and France as pretty similar: Urquidy has the track record while France is cheaper with more control. Bielak and Blanco (as a starter) are clearly a step down. Dubin has not received a real opportunity. Arrighetti and Gordon both probably need a bit more time in AAA but with 10+ good starts could force their way in because they have upside that those 5 don't. McCullers, when healthy, needs to be in the rotation. I'm not so sure about Garcia. If this team decides to go with a 6 man rotation it should stand pat and look to move Urquidy and/or France if/when 2 of Arrighetti, Gordon, McCullers, or Garcia are deemed "ready/healthy" If they go with a 5 man rotation, then they can move one if them now but only if it is to shore up a weakness they see in the current team. Ideally before the trade deadline, Framber, JV, Javier, Brown, McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, and France are all healthy and pitching well. Throw in Arrighetti, Gordon, and maybe even Kouba pitching well in AAA and this team could move 2-3 of them for the stretch run and 2025+ and still be 8+ deep.
Garcia is definitely worth a rotation spot when healthy. He was a 2-3 win pitcher over his 2 healthy seasons. Both he and McCullers are solid Game 3-4 playoff SP if healthy. Both would also likely make for very good RP. Houston has excellent SP depth. 2 aces (JV and Framber), 2 guys with the upside to be playoff SP (Javier and Brown), 2 injured #3s (Garcia and McCullers), 2 proven #5s (Urquidy and France), 1 good MoR prospect (Arrighetti), 3 AAAA guys with varying upside (Bielak, Blanco, Dubin), and a glut of 3rd/4th tier SP prospects who could be ready this season (Gordon, Kouba, Melendez, Blubaugh, Gusto, Robaina, Tamarez, Henley, Bellozo). Having 2 key pieces hurt increases the risk, so I would understand if they held onto everybody until that got sorted out, but if another team is willing to overpay, to me it makes a ton of sense to flip Urquidy.
Brown was used like France as well until he got a case of the homers. This looks like it was mostly an Astros decision to always go for one more inning when a starting pitcher is pitching well.
I think you summarize well. I do think 3 isn't enough. There will be injuries and stretches were there is 4 or 5 straight close games. If Whitley and Montero can do it then so be it. I have more faith in Hunter Brown. I would like the 4 or 5 starter to not have to go 6 innings. The more arms the less we have to ride the better back end bullpen arms. For example, if Urquidy goes 6 then you could go Montero / Brown / Abreu and save innings on Pressly and Hader. If Espada thinks in camp that Hunter could be a 2 or 3 starter this year, I'm fine with putting him in the rotation to start the season and see how it goes. I just think most likely scenario is high 3 era with decent whip and k/9. I think France could give you 90% of the production. I just don't think France has good enough stuff for the pen. I like Bielak stretched out in AAA ideally. France has earned a major league roster spot.
Nothing wrong with him but he is a bad fielder and there are better options out there IMO. I don't think he moves the needle for me but just kinda shrug and say OK if they brought him in unless he gets 50+ starts in LF or starts vs LHP w/ Chas and/or Meyers on the bench.
Just a small bit of info: Bielak is out of options and just good enough to not make it through waivers. He will either be on the 26 man or playing somewhere else.
Wasn't aware... guessing he's traded or stashed as long relief. Wouldn't mind moving him for an upgrade at backup 1B or CF. I would be curious how available Kebryan Hayes is... possible Bregman insurance... lots of injuries may have taken the untouchable label off him... Would need Bielak as like the 3rd best piece.
Hayes signed an extension. Pretty sure Pittsburgh is looking at him as a key player for their 2025 time line to compete.
Players like Hayes ( and Luis Robert) who sign long extensions early become crazy valuable. These players never get traded until their last year or two if at all.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/adam-ottavino-free-agent-mets-player-option.html I would love Ottavino in Houston for $4M/1yr.
Sure, unless you get hurt all the time and underperform. I was thinking buy low... He makes reasonable money at 7-8 million per year. He was barely above average last year with a 105 ops+. Just throwing the name out there. They don't have anyone to replace him in the minors. They may not think of him as untouchable as before, but that doesn't mean worthless. Do you want to build around a 27 year old averaging 118 games per year the past 3 seasons with a career ops+ of 100??? My thought was as a low risk gamble, not as dumping Bregman to get him. Bregman walks we do what? Overpay a free agent? Trade for a veteran? If the price is reasonable I would use him off the bench for a year and have him in case Bregman gets expensive. Let's not pretend a guy with an ops of .689, .659, and .762 is some kind of cornerstone to a winning franchise. Just like that better than throwing Dubon out there...
