I agree that taking away even the 4 (not 1/3 of their worst innings) worst starts would make most if not all pitchers look great. I simply was pointing out reason for hope and why Brown could be good this year, and how close he was to good last year.
I share the general sense of what you are saying about France, but I think you are selling him a bit short. Rmeber, offensive environment in baseball last year was as high as it’s been for a while- at 4.33. A 4.79 era would be 10% below average. That’s still probably worthy of being on a MLB staff and if you can throw 150 innings at that level for minimum wage you are a valuable part of an organization. It’s also theoretically possible that he does have some soft contact skills that FIP understate and he could be expected to over produce that. Average 150 innings for minimum wage is hugely valuable. Either way- he’s a worthy major leaguer right now.
He’s the guy that torched the Astros in the 2021 World Series as a member of the Braves. He tormented Framber Valdez in games 2 and 6.
Ya i'll never forget that at bat, hard to strike a guy out 3 times in one plate appearance, garcia could only muster to strike him out twice. Could have another world series if we had robot umps calling balls and strikes the last 5 years
It won't work because France's results were good anyway. Ok. I am probably being overly hard on France. It's not that I REALLY think he isn't MLB caliber. 30 teams and 5 starters each = 150 starting pitchers. In truth I don't think he's worse than the 120th-130th SP in baseball. That is not a pitcher who doesn't belong in MLB, just not one that any contending team should be actively trying to find more starts for.
If you could tell me Hunter pitches as well as Javier or Valdez then it's a no-brainer to start him. I see that only being 10-15% chance. I see him putting up roughly what France did last year. It would be an improvement as the analytics suggest. I recognize the need to have more good relievers. We still need to replace Maton. Brown could be an upgrade there. I think he's capable of being as good or better with high probability. Just opinion; I'm not basing on a specific data point.
It should be noted all of his peripherals were much more respectable before he blew past his career high workload. He reached a career high in starts and IP at the end of July, and teams started hitting the f**k out of him in mid August. The Astros situation forced a few guys into workloads they had never carried before last season.
Fair point, but can he be relied upon to do so without falling off? I think he'll be fine in the long run as a starter but just personal preference to put him in the bullpen if they think he could be on par with Abreu. Leverage arms for close games have considerable influence on flipping the outcome of games. Far greater impact than a 5th starter who may pitch in only 10 close games all year. It's found money but if Whitley could be a decent reliever they would be in amazing shape...
Yep. Thats seems right to me. Maybe even as high as 100 or so. Can’t believe it is likely to be much better than that.
In this post you quoted, @sealclubber1016 was talking about J.P. France, not Hunter Brown. His point was France’s underlying metrics looked a lot better before he exceeded his previous career high in innings pitched.
127 pitchers threw at least 100 innings last season. I gave actual ERA, expected ERA, actual FIP, and expected FIP each equal weight to give the most fair rankings I could that consider actual results and expected results with luck removed. Average rank of ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP Framber 26, 67, 16, 9 = 29.5 (77th percentile) JV 15, 18, 36, 92 = 47.75 (62nd percentile) Brown 110, 61, 80, 14 = 66.25 (48th percentile) Javier 91, 77, 90, 120 = 94.5 (26th percentile) France 50, 105, 95, 105 = 88.75 (30th percentile) As you can see Brown's expected numbers were quite good. Let's hope his luck turns this year.
My only concern is Jake Meyers. I don't think he is a top 3 outfielder. We're gonna end up having to have a lot more Mauricio Dubon if they don't have a plan B.
Meyers is completely acceptable when is 9th in your lineup. That's the main benefit of having Diaz catching.
Yep. The Astros against LHP will trot out a lineup with 9 guys that are really freaking good and plus. Against RHP it will be 7 plus hitters, 1 average and 1 poor. Either way you look at it is an embarrassment of riches.
I really hope Pena is working his ass off this offseason to overhaul his whole approach and skills at the plate. He was near the top of my list of biggest disappointments last season. Only 1 HR in an entire half of a baseball season is crazy.
Any ideas how many years and how much Soler is asking for? Put him in our lineup with our bullpen, we’re running it back nice again. Our SP can’t be worse than last year. Exciting year!!
Probably so, but I'm looking at baseball savant. Hunter was hit harder. Higher barrel rate and higher exit velo. France seems like he may be more "crafty" which makes the expected results from analytics more difficult to project. The analytics are based on the macro level expected output. It's possible a pitcher, like Javier, has something deceptive that produces results better than expected. The contact rate in the zone is roughly the same for France and Brown. Brown is harder to hit on chase which is expected with the higher velo. I think Hunter is clearly the better pitcher, I just don't think by enough for a 5th starter to matter as much as going from 3 reliable bullpen arms to 4. If Brown and someone like Montero or Whitley can be great one inning guys, the Astros would have a shot at best bullpen of all time. That's a useful weapon. If France and Urquidy only need to give you 4 or 5 innings it will make them more effective. Just a different philosophy... obviously if Hunter Brown could pitch like an allstar starter you would choose that. I just don't see that as the probable scenario.
