Unless the team goes with 6 man rotation, I don't see a place for him on this team. To be clear, I do think there is a good chance they use a 6 man rotation but Arrighetti and Gordon, maybe Kouba too have better stuff and could very well be better than him if they are ready. But I doubt they pass him on the depth chart I do see him being the 6th option until McCullers is healthy or one of those AAA guys force the team's hand. But he replaces Bielak (who will be out of options and likely arb eligible) in 2025 as the go to AAAA emergency starter.
Brown wasn’t very good in 2023 but he was a rookie so he has a chance to bounce back. Brown will get every chance as a starter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a #2-3 starter…. I just think it isn’t guaranteed.
Crane also sets the budget obviously. People blaming or crediting him or blaming him so far for big ticket (or lacking of it) big moves are misunderstanding g how it has worked so far. The drafts and international free agent signings and moves at the margin are unknown and will tell his effectiveness up to now in his job. We will know in a couple years (or start to anyway imo).
I think Brown is going to be really good. I need to do a deep dive on his 2023 season. I have a couple things in my mind I perceive about him and his usage need to check all the game logs to see what that looks like.
A meddling owner can overcome his mistakes by spending more of his money, although there are limits to that. But it now seems pretty clear to me that Crane has determined that the GM’s real job is to find and develop cheap controllable talent (through the draft, waivers, international signings, and minor trades), and that the owner makes decisions on major acquisitions via free agency and trades. All 3 of his GMs have been player development guys with little to no experience signing free agents or making final decisions on major trades. I thought they dug themselves into a hole with the Montero and Abreu contracts that went south on them, but if Crane is willing to spend his way out of that, then it’s not an issue. And you can’t argue with Crane’s overall results as an owner.
On Hunter Brown, his peripherals were all still rock solid until the last quarter of the season when he fell off pretty hard in terms of standard and advanced results. The question becomes was the falloff a workload issue due to his first season as a full time regular starter, or did the league catch up to something. In those situations I tend to lead more towards the former. The velocity and spin rate of his fastball and curveball were all down quite a bit down the stretch before skyrocketing in his inning the last game of the year. With a full season under his belt, and hopefully more latitude to spread out his workload a little, I would be surprised if Brown isn't at least a league average starter.
Nothing meaningful. Maybe a back end org top 10 prospect. He doesn’t have any pedigree and the underlying stuff isn’t great. Any value he has comes from his actual production where he fit as just a good #5 SP despite outperforming his peripherals. For him to have significant trade value he’d need to throw another 150+ innings this year with an era under 4; that’d probably have a few teams believing his pitch mix and deception can carry him to being a good #4.
A middling prospect who is highly unlikely to be as valuable as France is right now as possibly a league averageish depth starter. This isn't 2003, you aren't fooling other organizations with an ERA and W/L record.
You know who would look good on Houston’s roster right now? Wilyer Abreu. Lefty hitter who can play all 3 OF spots, making league minimum, and projects to a .244/.343/.415 slash line after posting a 135 wRC+ in a short audition last season. I know Houston won the Series so the Vasquez trade was worth it, but Abreu may be another Teoscar type trade giveaway.
Houston is ~$3M under the 2nd threshold, or ~$17M over the CBT. They can spend another ~$23M with pretty minimal penalty; Crane just pays an additional 12% on the overage, which equates to a few million dollars. Spending more than another $23M would push them into the 3rd tier, where their 2025 1st round draft pick gets moved back 10 spots; again not a major penalty. Going over the CBT as they have now means that if they sign a QO free agent NEXT offseason, they’ll lose both their 2nd and 5th draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.
Looks like Hader told Crane he will pitch more than one inning if needed per Rome. This tells me Hader boxed himself in with his demands. I don’t think he had an offer in the ballpark of what Crane gave him. I don’t consider this an overpay. I actually think Crane did a great job with this. He basically told him and his agent this is it and you need to make a decision because we are moving on.
I have no issues with Jim Crane getting involved with FA signings. I know the Jose Abreu contract looked terrible based on his performance in 2023. If Abreu comes in healthy and puts up, this contract looks better. The Montero signing was Crane trying to get "ahead" of the market after winning the World Series. This 100% was an overpay, but I understand he wanted to keep intact the bullpen together that will go down as one of the best bullpens in playoff history. With all that being said, I would like to see Crane prioritize getting extensions done before the season starts. You don't give a contract like that to Hader unless you plan on extending the window. No one believes they won't get something done with Altuve even if he is a Boras' client. I strongly believe Bregman should be the priority over Tucker. They do not have anyone in the system like a Pena to step in that role. JD Davis is the only 3B on the market next season. This doesn't mean they couldn't trade for a 3B, but you have to assume they would like to keep their prospects. This is where Bregman needs to be play ball as well.
Any chance the usage analysis includes throwing all fastballs to Maldonado, who was too lazy to catch curves?
Zach Dezenzo is Baseball Prospectus’ #44 overall prospect on their recent Top 100 and was on MLB.com’s recent list of most underrated prospects. He will have to show it’s real this season, but he’s certainly got potential to claim the 3B job after Bregman leaves.
Brown also was very good for almost 90 innings, then wore down In his first 86.3 innings he gave up 74 hits In his last 67.6 innings he gave up 83 hits I would be surprised if he isn't at least a #3 type starter, and has the upside to be a 1 or 2
