Sengun/FVV-centric offense won't survive long term

BING! I thought I was on ignore! I'll try not to be racist towards you.

Yes - the SUPERSTAR of the team should lead by example. Or no? He gets an excuse marathon ran for him everytime he underwhelms and then the absurd criticism of open court players on why they cant be Steph from outside or navigate a traffic jam in the paint.

3 pointers > baby hooks -- ALWAYS

"eFfIcIeNcY"

 

What do you mean? This is just not true at all.

 

Educate me Harold.

 

I guess I probably misinterpreted what you wrote, are you saying a made 3 is always better than a made baby hook? Like I could write a big ass essay on this topic because I think the "3>2" concept is very widely misunderstood by many/most basketball watchers but I think you're a pretty smart dude and probably not included in that category. I do like writing big long posts that nobody reads, though, it's a great way to pass the time while I'm supposed to be working.

 

I never said nor thought he's the "SUPERSTAR" of the team, and I'm pretty sure the dude who finished the game with 22/11 with 65% TS is not the reason why the Rockets lost the game against the Heat.

So if we shouldn't expect Jalen to hit wide open 3s or make layups in the paint because he's an "open court player," why the hell did the Rockets waive Josh Christopher and keep Jalen? Because, you know, Josh Christopher was actually a better "open court player" than Jalen.

And please let me know what exactly we should expect from Jalen.

LMAO

 

No. Inside game has a definite purpose. Just the same way we shouldnt expect a 3 point shot to get a player like Jalen Green going. When people are pointing fingers at Jalen, Jabari, JaeSean for not being adequate as outside shooters then why not have the best guy on the team take some of those? Thats been a point of contention since the jump. For Sengun to unlock not only HIS full potential he needs to be a guy that defenses honor as an outside shooter so that the skills of everyone else can get some burn. Defenses are taking away the hot hand and we continue to pack the paint and kick out. Thats with this team overachieving as outside shooters so far! Its just wild that on one hand guys say we need better outside shooters, but exclude Sengun as part of the problem.

3&D wins in the end. I'll die on that hill.

 

Buddy the train on Sengun NOT being the focal point of this team has left the station. Is it not apparent now? Jalen Green and Jabari Smith are relegated to role players via the strategy and intent to use the high shooting percentages that accompany skilled post players. Why is it surprising that a 7 foot guy with a shot diet almost exclusively within 10 feet has great efficiency metrics? That should be the expectation.

Stop. In no universe is Josh Christopher a better open court player than Jalen Green. That is absurd. You want to know how to get your 3 point shooters going? Get them some easy shots first! ESPECIALLY a guy like Jalen. Now granted some of that is on him by being a statue and not moving enough without the ball, but he's had the hardest adjustment to this new style of play than anyone. To scold him and blame certain players for losses is faux pas when it literally takes everyone to play well for this team to win when you're missing key players like Dillon and Tari.

 

The only poster I can think of that would deny the benefit for Sengun's developing a 3pt shot was hakeem94, who's not here anymore. So I don't know who you are barking at.

But you were supposed to reply to @harold bingo against your claim "3 pointers > baby hooks -- ALWAYS" which you clearly didn't have an answer and shifted to some strawman. Your claim could have been correct if you didn't have the word "ALWAYS" at the end. The funny thing is, you ALL CAP it for emphasis. "Always" takes away the need for contexts and qualifications. It absolutizes the claim. That is obviously false. Anyone, including yourself, could surely think of situations where baby hooks are better than 3 pointers. And you had the audacity to ask the poster to "educate" you as if his retort needed any more proof.

 

Baby hooks dont win championships. Or do they? Point me towards those advanced metrics where you can win a ring with a shot diet of sub 10 feet. You cant do it within the last decade -- want to use the Timmy D Spurs as an example of the modern game or nah? JFC asking for the best guy on the team to open up his game and everyone else's should be a universal understanding, except its better to point the finger at the "bad" players without context while the fluffing of an incomplete player continues. Sometimes the disconnect is too vast to overcome predispositions apparently. That could work both ways. Here I am espousing all the good that Sengun is via the direction of the ball club and asking him to do more results in panty twisting. Get a grip.

 

A couple easy ideas here…

1. Amen should be serving as the point guard when he is on the floor with Freddy. Right now, it is often the other way around. This makes no sense from the development standpoint, and I personally believe it would generate more offense right now. Amen with the ball, FVV and Cam on the wings.

2. The Amen to Cam Alleyoop was on display last game. There is so much explosion between the two and Whitmore has a very good sense of when to cut.

3. Jabari….. last year he was highly efficient at walking the ball up and stepping into three-pointers. Whether we are generating him extra shots with this or softball movement to create additional three-point opportunities. I want Smith taking nine three-point attempts a game.

 

Thanks for posting, good stuff. I'll lay out my philosophy (and the hill I'll die on). I'll note up front that this may not convince you and that's fine, we dont' have to agree and we don't have to get into a debate. But as I said before I like writing big long posts that most people won't even read. But here's how I see it-

The whole 3>2 thing came from the Daryl Morey era, and the key thing that is misunderstood about it is that 3s are not actually better than 2s as an absolute rule. The Daryl Morey philosophy (that I 100% agree with) is that teams should take the most efficient shot. Or put another way, the shot that produces the most expected points. Expected points is like, if you have a 3 pointer that has a 40% chance to go in, that is 3*0.4 = 1.2 expected points. So a 40% 3 point shot is worth 1.2 points. When Daryl first came up with this philosophy, he was looking back at the NBA game from the 2000s and early 2010s where teams took a lot of 2 point jumpers. And when he crunched the numbers he saw that most of these players shooting percentages were in the 40s on these shots. Lets just say its 45% on a good 18 footer, thats only 0.9 points per shot. So why are you taking shots that only produce 0.9 points? That same player shoots 37% from 3, which is ~1.1 points per shot. Thats a whole lot more points. So his entire philosphy of "3>2" is actually "take the most efficient shot", but in practice the biggest change to implement that was to have a whole bunch of these guys start shooting 3s instead of 2 point jumpers.

Now that we have that foundation down, that doesn't mean that 3s are always better than 2s. A dunk is still better than a wide open 3 unless that player can shoot over 66% on those shots. So basically only Steph Curry. But if you have the choice of a wide open layup, or a wide open 3, the layup is going to be the better option almost every time. That's 2 guaranteed points vs, what, maybe 1.5 or 1.6 or 1.7 points. The most extreme and ridiculous example of this premise is if you watch the all star game. Morey even tweeted about this and was joking about it - in the all star games, 2s are actually way better than 3s because nobody plays defense. It flips his philosophy on its head (or rather, the perception of his philosophy, that 3>2) because the math turns back around to 2>3. If nobody is going to guard you, and you have the chance to take a practice 3 or an uncontested layup, the correct move is actually the layup. The layup will end up giving you more points, and the open 3s actually become the "bad shots." Craziness!

So now we can get onto the "baby hook vs 3s" thing. Going ahead with what I wrote above, the answer is not that 3s are better or the baby hook is better, but rather, the more efficient shot is better. It's hard to quantify and you can't just say "Sengun makes 60% of his baby hooks so its always a 60% shot" because it all depends on who's defending him, how well he's doing, did his footwork get him an open look, etc etc. Similarly the same goes for the 3 point shooters with rhythm and everything else. But at the end of the day you do make some kind of determination of which one you think produces more points. And (speaking hypothetically) if Sengun can get a 2 that goes in 60% of the time, that is better offense than a 3 point shot that only goes in 35% of the time. Same thing goes with hitting cutters, hitting a cutter for a layup will always be better than hitting a wide open 3 point shooter. Getting fouled on a 2 (for most players) is also much better than a wide open 3 point shot.

The TLDR version is it doesn't matter if you shoot 3s or 2s, just produce efficient offense. You absolutely can produce efficient offense jacking up 50 3s per game. But you can also do it barely shooting any 3s too.

 

Sengun's man will never not pack the paint no matter how many 3's he shoots at the moment because he's not a good 3 point shooter. In fact they will probably no guard him on purpose if he shoots more 3's because that's bad offense. Just because you attempt 3's doesn't mean the defense will get drawn out.

Also Jalen's offensive creation to the basket is the same whether the lane is jammed with Sengun, or open with Uncle Green spacing the floor. We have seen Jalen with the second unit without Sengun cramming the floor, it makes no real difference how he plays.

 

Also Morey has never said 3>2, I don't even know how that that rumor was spread. I remember his philosophy was always Layup, 3's and Fouls. Which was how Harden played. He hated midranges at a low percentage from certain players, he never said 3 > all 2's. .

 

Thank you Harold!! You are the salt of the earth - and you didnt even get snarky!

So why not hope that the guy that is hitting 66% from inside 10 feet and eats up usage to go ahead and get to 33%+ from 3? Decongest the paint some for all the youth we have that can get to the rim? We've all seen Sengun hit 3's. He has a decent enough stroke. He passes up those shots more often than not. Last year it was "coach doesnt let him shoot 3's" and now its just as easy as saying he isnt a good outside shooter so lets blame everyone else. Its bizarre especially when the team isnt nearly as bad shooting the 3 as they have been. If you have multiple guys who shoot 40% around a post fulcrum like Sengun it works. If you dont then you need your best guy to be part of the solution. When opponents are knocking down 3's at a high clip you cant keep up even with 100% success rate on 2s (exaggerated obviously). If Sengun makes more outside shots players WILL get up on him that is just natural defensive basketball. Right now they dont even respect him enough to leave the paint.

I just chimed in when I saw the usual scape goats getting tossed about and blamed for our losses and not including our most effective player in the corrective action moving forward.

Digressing the transition game is also held hostage by committing to only initiating offense from within 5 feet. It becomes predictable and easy to defend. We/Sengun must diversify.

 

I do want him to shoot 3s! I've been a big proponent of Sengun becoming a 3 point shooter from the beginning, since his rookie year, and have been posting that he needs to become a respectable 3 point shooter to really become a superstar. Our resident nazi hakeem94 used to mock me and call me a simpleton because I wanted Sengun to shoot 3s lol.

Agree on the diversity part, I think the issue though is that we need our players to improve enough that running a diverse offense is worth it. Like if you have a PNR option that scores 1.1 per possession, you wouldn't want to "mix it up" by throwing in some shitty isolation play thats going to give you 0.85 or something similar. So what we need is for all our players to develop and improve to the point that their go-to offensive plays are on the same level as our FVV/Sengun PNR. It will take time, but I agree with you that diversity of offense is key.

 

Excellent post! Cogent, logical and well written. I cannot believe I read this on Clutch Fans.

 

Play to player strengths. I love it.

It really is that simple.

The cherry on top would be if we could utilize our young legs more than we do particularly in fast break and transition offense. Let Sengun take a few plays off every game. Easy buckets off of post action via cutting. We're getting there. It took Boston half a season to figure it out with superstars, it could take us a little longer, but you can see the progress in real time.

You the man Harold!

 

poor defense.

 

Missing the point. Besides that you’re logically flawed. Your statement would be true if playing “through” FVV Sengun wins 100% of the time.