I don't think I'm really talking about pure numbers. I am mainly talking about player prototypes and how much/little they deviate from that as they grow in the NBA. I am not really down playing Jabari, I just don't think his prototype is a shot creator given the tools his physical talent. Jabari has very little fluidity to his game when he has to put the ball on the ground, or even on rim runs to the basket. He is also quite limited by his lack of jumping abilities and average wingspan. His lack of footwork also doesn't help him much in the post. I think players typically grow to their strengths and natural abilities, Jabari's strength is shooting touch and switchability on defense. I like Jabari, I love his prototype because I think these type of players will win you games. I am imaging Jabari's shot creation abilities to mainly come from 2 dribble pull up mid ranges, and maybe a low post turn around mid range if he can really gain some weight and work on his footwork. I am not a fan of the argument that because he's 20 the sky is the limit, he could be anything. That's like saying Sengun is 21, he might start catching lobs like Capela in the future and guard 4 positions like Jabari.
I stand corrected on the mid range percentages. But guess we will agree to disagree on developing shot creation like LMA. I maintain post footwork and fluidity which are critical to shot creation can be seen before a player by the time they are 20. I also think it's the same as shooting touch, just because Mobley is 21, I predict he will never shoot like Jabari
So now your prediction moves to Mobley who has never been a shooter will never shoot like Jabari who has been a shooter his entire career. the funny thing is I can point you in the direction of Jalen Suggs. Folks criticized his shooting coming out of the draft. Low and behold it took him awhile and in his 3rd season, he’s now become near 40% shooter your fixation on things that players just don’t really get better regardless of age is just flat out wrong
I get your point. But I still think that players that young should not be put too much of a limit to their abilities. Sure, Sengun will never be Capela type lob threat. But people also said that he could never be able to play good enough defense to be an effective NBA player, let alone the best player on a good team. (People also said that about Jokic, BTW.) I think we should learn a lesson about how a prototype can or cannot do. Same thing about Jabari. He was supposed to be unable to dribble and was a poor finisher at the rim. To me, his handles have been better than I expected and have improved. His rim efficiency this season is up to the league average for a big man. Footwork can be learned. I agree that his best bet on a go to shot other than wide open catch and shoot is a two dribbles pull up and a low post turn around. He won't have many opportunities for a low post game when Sengun is on the floor. But I noticed lately that he was left on the floor to play with the second unit. Maybe they will try to feed him in the post and test the water there. I am not saying that he will certainly be as good as some of the best scoring big men like Markkanen. (He won't have the same style like Lauri anyway.) I just think that it's not a stretch to see his upside to be a 2nd or 3rd option 20+ ppg scorer within a few years.
It's an example of my point, its not about a prediction about Mobley, it could be Sengun. I'm just saying your fundamentals and God given talents are quite set at age 20,21. It's very difficult to bring that to an high level no matter how young you are.
It isn’t an example of your point. You’re reaching for it to be but it doesn’t apply. Like I just said jalen Suggs has now become a 40% shooter. Did you see that coming. Nope. so since sengun is 21, are you going to tell us he’ll never become a respectable 3 point shooter?
No I dont think Sengun will shoot like Jabari. I have never said anything about Suggs, he's not really a big. If shooting touch was so easy to improve why was Jabari drafted at 3, there's not many players at 6'11 that's shooting 40 percent from 3. You are making the same arguments as Jalen Green fans, omg he's only 19, 20, 21.
i didn't say shoot like Jabari of course he won't because again he was never a shooter. that wasn't what the question was. You just said fundamentals are set at ages of 20,21. Suggs is an example. Just because you didn't say anythign about him doesn't mean it doesn't apply. It certainly does you're making silly assumptions and trying to use these outrageous claims acting like you're proving a point when you're not Is draft positon always correct? No. Last i checked a draft is always in the wrong order. So now where you're drafted at 3 is being used as if it has anything to do with any of this. So then why did Sengun not get drafted til 16? Why did Joker not get drafted until the 2nd round? Why did Kawhi not get drafted until 15? Did Embiid not get picked 3rd? I could go on and on This isn't much of an argument. The age factor here with Bari absolutely is valid with context. You're on the other end simply disregarding it which is 100% wrong. Bringing up non applicable scenarios acting like they support your false beliefs doesn't apply
Im lost on what we are even arguing about. Jabari was drafted very high (3) because of his superb shooting touch at 6'11. That's a skill that most bigs cannot reach no matter how young they are. I just think so and so is a certain age is a bad argument on their improvement. Players typically grow based on their existing strength, I don't think they all of a sudden will pick up things that they are a certain age.
it isn't a bad argument. The fact that you have a difficulty understanding the simple concept of extremely young players can't improve is just mesmerizing. Player development concept is foreign to you We're not talking about players going on 30 years old. We're talking about 20 year olds and yet per you these guys are pretty much set in stone on what they can do going forward. Amazing So answer the question. Since Sengun is already 21, will he ever become a respectable 3 point shooter?
Jabari has been much improved - this is the type of shooting that got him drafted #3 overall. But wow man .... there's a possibility that Chet shoots 50/40/90 as a rookie. That's nuts. I think both of them have made us forget about that Banchero dude.
Maybe I'm just scarred by Greens lack of development so I'm more conservative in my expectations for young players to learn basic basketball. As far as Senguns 3 point shooting, what is respectable, I think he will end up below 35 percent and at low volume. I really hope he gets good enough so people will not just camp the lane and let him shoot.
Green is about to be 22 in less than a month. His extreme youth reference is running out which is why context matters respectable is absolutely that range not much below if anything but on high volume.
Current NBA equivalent would be JJJ? And they are centers now but Bam Adebayo's and Sabonis' games are unrecognizable from their rookie years.
We clearly just have different definitions of what "forcing it" means because when I use that term I'm talking about poor quality shots with low expected point values, mostly taken early in the shot clock. Like if a player was to get the ball on the perimeter with 16 on the shot clock, take two dribbles inside the 3 point line, fail to shake his defender, then raise up and take a contested long two over a good contest - that's a forced shot. That's not the same thing as what Harden did. Harden very rarely forced bad shots, Harden was taking good shots. And I also disagree with "in reality they are taking shots that they're supposed to." Like if we sat down with Ime Udoka and went over every single offensive possession of a game and asked him to identify "forced shots" based on my definition(bad shots that we didn't need to take), I would bet we could find at least 10 or 15, maybe more. There are a lot of times where players are taking shots that they aren't "supposed" to take. This is a young team, they make mistakes. And if we took all those shots that Ime didn't like, I think either 1 or 0 of them would be taken by Jabari. I think Sengun, Jalen, and FVV would lead the pack on taking those shots that he doesn't want them to take. Lastly, you are right that it implies limitations in his game. But there are plenty of limited players that still force terrible shots! Dillon Brooks is a perfect example, like when he goes Kobe mode and tries dribble moves into a long 2s, or fadeaway jumpers in the post. That is not his game, he is TERRIBLE on those shots. And yet sometimes he just decides to take them anyway, for whatever reason. That's forcing it. And I think it's a good quality that Jabari doesn't do that.
Yeah it's subjective. To me Tatum is worth the max because he can do in a conference finals what Lauri has done in meaningless regular season games. Also just the variety of ways Tatum can score is important. I think Lauri could get near that level but we've not seen it. He's mostly been disappointing in his career except for two seasons on a team that doesn't care about winning - that's something I'd be cautious about if I were GM.
