Starling Marte was below replacement level last season. He’s put up 2.6 fwar over 2 seasons with the Mets, making $39M in that time (AAV). Meyers has put up 2.0 fwar (less than a win’s difference), making $37.5M less. I was one of the people saying Houston should sign Marte, but his contract is already underwater and likely not going to recover.
As much as it caged as Meyers versus Marte, Click knew the Astros had other options at CF as well if Meyers failed that would be likely be competent (one of them was much more than just competent). The worst miscalculation regarding CF by Click was that he didn't expect Dusty to play Dubon in CF. Even with Dusty playing Dubon in CF, the Astros got significantly better production in CF over the last 2 years versus Marte at $35-40M dollars less. That is a big win for Click and it ended up with a great catch that was a crucial part of winning a World Series. Edit: What Snake said. It was obvious that Marte was not going to be good for the length of his contract, and that the Astros had decent, cheap options for CF. It was obvious the Astros would need that money for a 1B in 2023 more.
The problem isn't the RPs in my analysis and opinion. I agree WAR is a terrible measure of RP, but didn't feel I could simply exclude them but use a specific metric for the others. Furthermore WAR for SP is also less than ideal, but there is no better metric. So if a person wants to make a point based on numbers that's all there is. No other stat encompasses all aspects of the game. As for Baty I have already adjusted his value. Do you think that his first 6 year projections were only 1.5 WAR per year before last season aa the #23 prospect in MLB (fangraphs). For 5 seasons, every 1/2 WAR per adds $20M in value. His trade value should, at minimum, be that of a serviceable MLB position player for 5 years. Did Kyle Tucker's trade value suddenly crater after a -0.5WAR showing in Sept 2018 and then spending all of 2019 in AAA until September while Alvarez was promoted ahead of him? Top prospects remain top prospects through multiple chances. As for arb raises, how did I not do that? Will Baty make $30M over his 5 years in Houston w/o getting arbitration raises? If I didn't address the players the Astros send (I did IMO) then the trade becomes even more lopsided in the Astros favor. As it is, I tried to make Bielak and Singleton as valuable as I could, in good conscience by being optimistic about WAR and pessimistic on the arb salary that would give them. But none of that is the problem with your offer, or the reason that I feel it's unfairly in the Astros favor. It's the inclusion of Abreu and Montero and also adding money to the Astros that's the problem. Each of those players drastically reduce the value of the Mets part of the deal so why would they take them and also pay? It would be much more reasonable to simply remove one of them and forget about the $8M. Looking at it from both team's perspective, thoughts I don't think it works for either of them. 1) The Mets have pretty much punted on 2024. The stated that to Scherzer and Verlander and then proved it by trading them. With only 2024 and 2025 of control, Framber is much less valuable to them. 2) If the Mets have determined that Baty is still a potential starting 3B, and 2+ WAR player then trading 4 years of him (excluding 2024 they are punting) for a single meaningful year of Framber is a steep price. 3) If the Mets no longer feel Baty is a likely starting 3B, then why would the Astros? And therefore what benefit is this deal for them? The answer is salary relief. If they really want to clear $30M+ in CBT space for 2025 and feel that Baty is a legitimate replacement for Bregman then I can see a deal working. But the obvious reason for doing that would be to extend Bregman and then Baty would not be needed. Maybe they are more hopeful about Tucker than any of us are?
Running the Framber for Baty-Alonso trade proposal through baseballtradevalue....Mets get $3.5M in value and the Astros get $52.8M in trade value. Framber is incredibly valuable, but Abreu and Montero's contracts are viewed as huge negatives that wipe out all that value. I don't think Abreu's and Montero's contracts are as bad as baseballtradevalue suggests and I'd probably add some surplus value to Framber, but I don't see Mets trading Baty and Alonso for Framber without the negative contracts being closer to neutral (i.e., baseballtradevalues aren't off by $50M).
I agree with this. I don’t think any reasonable/knowledgeable person would argue that Framber for Baty straight up is a fair deal (which was what Id was posting). Part of my logic is that the Mets don’t care about money and there is a real scarcity of quality multi-year core players available. How much less valuable is Abreu than Tesocar (who just got close to Abreu’s AAV)? They project to be very similar in offensive value next season (Abreu projects for a 109 wRC+ with Teoscar at 110). Take out the money and RP and this deal is probably more realistic, although at that it probably doesn’t accomplish Houston’s mission of clearing enough payroll to replace Framber and add a RP; it would net about $10M less payroll in 2024 and $35M in 2025. It may still be worth doing depending on what they think of Baty and whatever follow on moves they plan.
I think there should be a sliding scale for $M/WAR value (Off top of my head so these values probably are off) 1 WAR is worth $3M ($3M per) 2 WAR is worth $9M ($4M per) 3 WAR is worth $15M ($5M per) 4 WAR is worth $26M ($6.5M per) 5 WAR is worth $40M ($8M per) 6 WAR is worth $60M ($10M per) As long as we are talking about a single season.
[QUOTE="Snake Diggit, post: It's cool though I understand I'm very long and detailed. I'm not everyone's taste.
Agreed. The # of guys you can find to give you 2 WAR per year is obviously much larger than those giving 6 WAR. Outside of catcher and relief pitcher, I would hope that we would never be in a position of needing to spend $10m+ to get a guy expected to provide 2 WAR even on the open market. You would hope you could find a guy that can be a reasonable facsimile in the system.
I read this and my first thought was.....“I think of a man. And I take away reason and accountability.” The Mets may be willing to have larger payrolls and use money to buy prospects in trades, but they aren't going to give away money without receiving something back. Baty and Alonso for Framber is probably close to a neutral trade in a vacuum. I wouldn't do it as I expect Diaz to play 1B a lot when he's not catching, Bregman is better than Baty, and Framber is a great SP providing value when the Astros likely need it the most.
Yeah it’s a narrow case for it working. If Baty can play LF most days while serving as the backup 3B in 2024 then take over for Bregman in 2025, the net effect on the 2024 offense would be swapping Abreu for Alonso and giving all of Singleton’s and most of Meyers’ (as well as a handful of Dubon’s) projected pa to Baty. If Baty hits to his potential the “everyday” 2024 lineup might be in the running for best ever. For me, I’m assuming any Framber trade means Houston thinks he’s due for regression without Maldy and is very high on a more affordable alternative like Paxton or Yariel Rodriguez.
Since you can not base salary on performance (a really stupid rule to have agreed to) what you are listing is dollars based on previous WAR. Are you using LY or Avg WAR over time, and what about a rookie who has no ML history. Also not all players play the same number of games so unless you calculate WAR per game you are not using meaningful numbers.
I don't see anyway it comes to this because Alonso is a fan favorite face of the franchise for fans at least and Framber would need 3+ years of control for him to be of value to them because they are punting 2024. However, if it did then a few thoughts 1) Is Baty a starting 3B in this league but just needs time to adjust like Tucker, or is he over hyped and over his head like Singleton 9-10 years ago. 2) How do the 195+ innings Framber takes get replaced? McCullers and Garcia getting healthy (yada yada) are fine but 20 starts and 120 innings will need to be covered April - July before that happens even if that happens. 3) How much LF could Yordan SAFELY play so Abreu and Alonso were both able to be in the lineup together? A lineup of Altuve Yordan Bregman Tucker Alonso Diaz Abreu McCormick Pena Would be insane if everyone was healthy.
I was basically talking about projected WAR. If a FA projects to be a 4 WAR player (say 20 WAR over 5 years) he is more valuable than 2 guys who are 2 WAR players (say 10 WAR over 5 years, each) So why lump a single value "per WAR" is all I'm saying. But at the end of the day there will always be guys who overachieve and some who just plain stink after being hyped.
Allocating 162 starts without Framber: Verlander 25 Javier 25 Brown 25 Urquidy 20 France 20 Garcia 12 McCullers 12 Arrighetti 12 Bielak/etc. 11 And that’s if they don’t end up signing anyone after trading Framber. I’m comfortable with that roster but it puts quite a bit of pressure on JV, Brown, and Javier to stay healthy early until Garcia and McCullers are healthy.
Right, and this is the hesitation with signing free agents - even for 3 or 4 year deals. The Mets needed an outfielder, Marte did the job year one and hasn't since. A team like the Mets, Yankees or Dodgers can withstand one or two signings like Marte. However, not many other teams can if they have a really good team. Let's look at the Astros for example. The Astros really needed a 1st basemen off and on the last 3-4 years. Gurriel was very much up and down, and there was no one to really replace him. The Astros looked for players at the trade deadline and couldn't pull it off - they looked inside their system and could not find anyone. So, the Astros looked at their outfield depth, internal pitching options and looked for someone to play 1st base that was a clear upgrade over a washed up Gurriel. The Astros signed who appeared to be a perfect player. Abreu was known as a leader, well respected and hard working. He could hit tough pitching, he was durable and he had pop. The Astros were able to sandwich him in their window on a 3 year deal. Seemed very shrewd and close to perfect. Abreu ends up hurting his back in the pre-season, struggles almost half the season, before finally getting an injection in his back. He has a huge post season. However, as it turned out - Yanier Diaz could have played a lot of first last year. This year, do you think the Astros would rather have over $20,000 to spend this off season? Would they rather trade for someone like Harold Ramirez and use the money for relievers or an outfielder? Who knows - if Abreu's back is healthy, with his work ethic and the Astros line up, maybe he has an MVP type season (he has had several of these in his career). The only consistent is that organizations need to be able to develop useful players, to prevent from paying free agents to fill holes.
