Hemingway, I am a huge Rockets fan so I really hope that I am wrong on this one and you are right. I think that Amen, if things go well, does truly have the potential to be Tari Eason without the outside shot and free throw capability. That’s still better than many players in this league and makes him a legit backup, but not the star player many were hoping for at number 4.
Aruba, the handles will improve, the processing of the game will improve as those are fixable young player traits. Unfortunately, expecting 20% lifetime 3 point shooting (and I am being generous not counting his 11% NBA 3 point shooting in those stats) to jump up incrementally in the big leagues is beyond rare. I’ll keep it simple…..this is the same as expecting a baseball player who is a career .125 hitter in the minors (Single A) to be brought up to the majors and be taught by a hitting coach to become a career .300 hitter within a year or two of help. Sound ludicrous? It is and that is what many are unreasonably expecting from Amen.
fair point. Im not expecting Amen to become a great shooter. If he can be an average mid-range shooter, but become an elite play-maker, defender, and elite at getting to and finishing at the rim, I think that will end up justifying the pick. I always was concerned with drafting a guard who can’t shoot. It’s an enormously limiting factor. But I feel comfortable that whatever he is capable of, he will maximize because of his work ethic.
He’s got the enormous athleticism and quickness. Super young , too early to evaluate his shooting cause lots of players develop a jumper
He has good vision but to jump from OTE playmaker to NBA playmaker is an even steeper one than going from 17% shooter to 36% shooter. In time he will be adequate but the IT factor is if he can be better than 80% of the playmakers in here while still being able to score over 14 ppg.
Tari Eason cant playmake. Amen in the very, very short time he has played already has 28 total assist to Tari Eason's 27 total assist for the season. Tari has played 480 mins while Amen has only played 240 mins while being a rookie and playing like a total scrub his first couple of games. We didn't get Amen to be Tari Eason, we got him to be Ben Simmons without the attitude and health issues. Ben Simmons was a multi time All star despite his flaws so I wouldn't be making star predictions this early in his career especially when Amen came from OTE which is a total joke league. Lots of players were able to fix their shot after having bust level 3pt shooting percentage including Lou Dort, Jason Kidd, Kyle Lowry, Lonzo Ball etc. Dort started his career shooting 29% now he is shooting 41%. Amen can go from shooting 19% to 31% in yrs which while still bad is a lot better than 19%. Rondo went from 20% his rookie year to 41% his last season so anything can happen.
Well, Amen will be starting from 17% and not 29%.....I like him a lot but not as a star. This team needs great role players that know their role and still make a buzzer beating shot. Why not start there instead of those lofty daydreams..... Rondo shot 40% when nobody cared about him as a star but a journey dude, he was old as an ancient lizard. It is concerning if both twin brothers cannot shoot, so it is not just mechanics but it is part of their stories...
@Aruba77 makes a good comparison. If Westbrook were a good defender, no one on earth would be complaining about his shooting because he'd be the net positive high impact player he was always supposed to be. His triple doubles would directly translate into wins. That's how the advanced stats work. Defense is half of an NBA game and WB wasn't playing it. That's never going to be the case with Amen. Westbrook's first year: 15.3 points on 13.4 shots with 40/27/80 shooting splits. God knows what the F happened to WB to go from 80% FT shooting to 60% in the middle of his career, but this guy peaked at top 3 NBA player anyway. If you can do that with no shooting and no defense, then Amen will be fine. I have no doubt he would be able to average these numbers if he were given the starting PG position but those numbers are no good for chasing the playoffs. Just give it time. You're forgetting how long it takes to develop young players and he's going to make you look silly.
Amen Thompson came from OTE, and was hurt in the pre-season and then during this season. He has played less than 250 minutes in the NBA thus far. He is right now pretty close to what he was expected to be as a rookie. That is to say that he is a poor three-point shooter and his handle needs to be tightened. He has a solid assist/to ratio, he has overall defended very well, and he can get rebounds and finish inside. The numbers back this up as well. He is shooting an elite 75% within 3 feet of the basket. He is struggling in the 3-10 foot range (38%) and the 10-16 foot range (28%) and 3 point range (17%)... there is some optimism, in that in that 16-22 foot range, he is shooting over 60%, which is an area that he focused on. These numbers will have to improve, and it is very likely that some of them will over the next few seasons. The 3-10 foot range is almost guaranteed to improve as he gets stronger and his handle becomes tighter. The 16-22 foot range is a shot that a lot of teams will not overly guard because it is an inefficient shot for most players, however, if he shots well there - it is worth taking. On 3's, he is right now a catch and shoot player from there - and he may always be that type of player.... But currently, about 25% of his shots are at the rim, and if he improves his 3-10 foot shooting as well, then his overal EFG% will be in the 50%, even with poor outside shooting. With someone like Amen Thompson, he doesn't even have to be a good outside shooter, he just needs to be good enough. I am confident the handle will improve, and I am confident that his shooting will improve from some points on the floor - the question becomes how much will it improve. If Thompson shoots well enough from the floor, like lets say Ja Morant as a shooter - then he can be a beast because he is an excellent rebounder, he can get steals and blocks - he passes well and he defends really well. Reading what some fans are saying makes me question if they didn't realize that Amen was a high boom or bust type player at #4. He went so high because the upside is so huge, but he also is raw and it will take time. Some guys like him develop and some end up like Brandon Jennings and out of the league.
Love Tari but he will never in his entire career be as good of a passer as Amen is right now, you can pretty much book it. Amen also flashes better finishing ability--more understanding of angles, more creativity and touch, more hangtime.
Why is it a pre requisite to draft players under 20 and then try to project their career based on less than half seasons work vs just waiting for them to develop or fail?
Unfortunately, there's a good chunk of folks on the forum that only need 15 games to determine a rookie will fail and should be traded. Once they pronounce doom on said rookie, they will actively root for their negative prophecy to happen instead of discussion the player objectively.
The problem is either doom and gloom and the opposite is always sunshine.....there is very little grey are that would fit me for example.....
He is too clever to be a bust but he's too bad of a shooter to be a cornerstone. Amen's ceiling is 16/8/8 type of player a starting caliber PG. Similar to Ben Simmons. People are worried for the wrong guy.
Man, sometimes I feel that you have caught the SamFisher bug and become cynical about every one of our young players when something positive is said of them.
Sam Fisher was always mistaken for me, or I was mistaken for him but he is an eloquent dude who is more negative than me even. Me I am truly merely hardened and seasoned by real life....which is much harsher than net lyfe. I swear some people sound like addicts who have been addicted to koolaid for far too long.....
Sengun or Amen needs to be a good shooter if they are going to play a lot together. Amen needs to be a good enough shooter that his man won't go under screens.
I think he has already exhibited the ability to hit 2 pters from the free throw line in. He’ll be able to expand. I keep harking back to Magic Johnson, who I think was the greatest PG in the history of the game. It was a different era, but he was a mediocre jump shooter his entire career. His career 3pt % was 30%. He can be a hall of famer, if he can get to be a proficient jump shooter from the elbow in. I’m a very patient man and, sometimes, I’m wrong, but not often. Too many on this board are quick to call these youngsters busts (not referring to you). It is especially stupid given Amen has a total of 250 mins or so playing NBA ball. At the same time, these same posters are claiming Cam as the next coming of Lebron in even less minutes, mostly against scrubs because he can shoot. Ime is doing a masterful job of developing our young core. As a fan, I want to see more of Amen and Cam, but I trust Ime to bring them along in due time. Tate and Holiday are short timers in the rotation and expect Tate to be gone by the trade deadline.
Probably true - although the league is changing some as we speak. The Rockets/Warriors spamming 3 point shots doesn't quite work as well as it used to. Having said that, I agree for Amen and Sengun to work together, one of them most likely needs to become an average or better outside shooter. That doesn't apply to the Rockets trading one of them for another player that fits better though. I have always believed that Sengun would become at least an adequate outside shooter, and while it isn't shown in his three point shooting percentage - Sengun has been consistently improving as a shooter. For example, he shoots over 50% everywhere on the field, outside of the 3 point line. That is a real improvement over what he has shot in the past. The fact that he is shooting over 50% on 16-20 foot shots also shows that his range is improving. So I am not concerned about Sengun's ability to shoot from the floor next to Amen. I do have concerns about Amen's long range ability from the 3 point line, but that isn't a surprise. I also think long term that Sengun should play a lot of 4, which can cause spacing issues. It looks like Jabari is going to be at worst an average, high volume three point shooter. Right now, Jabari is shooting 39% on threes this season and he is only 20 years old. So he has a real chance to become a 40% volume three point shooter....... and then there is Cam Whitmore, who has a really nice three point shot as well. I think the Rockets will be fine from 3 point land even if Amen becomes a 30-32% three point shooter...... especially if he is getting into the paint a lot and finishing, and he is hitting middle range shots.
