They are still at least one star infielder (preferably 2B or 3B) away from contending. Their pitching staff is very good but they only have one true star in their lineup.
They have improved today, but I still think they are weaker on paper than they were last season, and that team missed the playoffs.
They missed the playoffs by 1 game and finished 2 games back in the division. Also, my reasoning for picking them to win the division is not just based on the rosters as they are today. The Mariners have 2 top 50 prospects and 3 top 100 prospects. Plus guys like Woo and Hancock that can be used in trades. They have the ability to go out and get a big time player at the deadline without hurting their MLB roster which is something the Astros aren't likely to be able to do. They can also handle a significant injury much better than the Astros.
Fangraphs is on it. They already have the rosters updated and new WAR projections Astros 47.3 Mariners 40.7 Rangers 39.3 Angels 32.0 A's 25.0 FWIW: Astros are projected most WAR in AL just ahead of Yankees at 47.1
Now tell me what the projections were for the Astros, Rangers, and Yankees last season? And how did that work out?
How am I supposed to know? I CAN tell you that most everybody projected the Astros to win the AL West and they did so I don't see your point.
Fangraphs projected the Yankees and Astros to win the division and the Rangers to finish 4th in the division. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-hopefully-not-too-erroneous-2023-zips-projections/ Picking the Mariners to win is a vastly safer pick than what the Rangers were last season and we saw how that ended up with a parade. 6 teams make the playoffs. If the Astros aren't 1 of those 6 teams that is a massive failure. I still think they get in but have the Mariners winning the division because of their rotation and stronger minor league system that might add value via players being brought up or in trade. The Rangers won the World Series at the deadline by adding Montgomery, Scherzer, etc. The Mariners can do that this year. I don't believe the Astros can.
The problem the Mariners have is that they got Garver and Raley, but neither can play 2B or 3B. France had a down season but he is still better than any of the LF options so Raley plays in the grass leaving 3 questionable infield bats. Haniger also had a down year and has never been able to stay healthy, so the lineup has at least 4 question marks. Their pitching, especially the rotation may be special, but Verlander, Framber, and Javier have all thrown no-hitters or won a CY Young in the past 2 years. They have potential to be just as good as anyone Seattle can put against them. Brown and McCullers (if healthy) have TOR stuff and can pitch a gem at any time. The Mariners may have more depth, but they can't match Pressly and Abreu at the back of the bullpen. Overall the Astros talent level and depth is superior.
Projected top fWAR players SEA / Hou Julio cf 5.5 / Yordan dh 5.6 Raleigh c 3.4 / Tucker rf 5.2 Crawford ss 3.3 / Bregman 3b 4.5 France 1b 2.3 / Altuve 2b 3.7 Urias 3b 1.9 / Pena ss 2.7 Garver dh 1.8 / Diaz c 2.5 Haniger rf 1.3 / Chas lf 2.0 Raley lf. 1.1 / Abreu 1b 1.2 Rojas 2b. 1.1 / Meyers cf 1.1 The Astros still have the better and deeper lineup. Rotation Kirby 3.6 / Framber 4.1 Castillo 3.4 / Verlander 2.6 Gilbert 2.8 / Brown 2.5 Woo 1.4 / Javier 1.4 Miller 1.3 / McCullers 1.1 If you consider McCullers is getting this 1.1 in less than 1/2 a season he is at least a 2.0 WAR SP giving the Astros the best #1 and also an advantage at the bottom of the rotation. Bullpen ( every RP projected for positive WAR) Brash 1.4 / Abreu 1.2 Munoz 1.1 / Pressly 1.1 Speier 0.5 / Montero 0.4 Topa 0.3 / Graveman 0.2 Vargas 0.1 / Blanco 0.2 / Sousa 0.2 / Mushinski 0.1 WAR is a terrible way to guage a reliever but its what we had. RP are notoriously inconsistent year to year so the more quality arms you have the better chance there is to have a good season. The Astros are surprisingly deeper here than Seattle. From the Fangraphs projections, it looks like the Astros are just a better team across the board.
