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Sengun/FVV-centric offense won't survive long term

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Jan 4, 2024.

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What should we do with the offense?

  1. Don't change anything

    45.8%
  2. Cut down FVV's 2PT shots and spread the wealth

    32.7%
  3. Other

    21.5%
  1. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Yes! Transition is definitely a place we have easy room to get more points. Practice would help. Another thing that would help is throwing a lob once in a while to our athletic guys who love to run the break (Tari, Cam, Jalen, Amen).

    It's very un-Spurs like so I'm not sure what Ime is up to here. I wonder how FVV has historically done in transition.
     
  2. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I'm going to start bunching up replies because this is turning into a job over here.

    There's no one in the world who's happy with a person shooting 40.5% inside the arc on a significant number of attempts. Practically everyone is shooting that better than him there. I can't understand why people think it's impossible to tell FVV to pass the ball 2 more times a game when the shots are especially difficult for him without losing all the good things he does. Just kick out. If there's no one open, you should be making more than 40.5% of your layups.
     
  3. albuster

    albuster Member

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    This. One of the remarkable revelations in the past two games was the explosions in scoring in the second half. Though most of the points were made by Sengun in that stretch, the ball movement has become better. The young players have started to find open spots, and Sengun was learning to make quick, crisp passes to his open teammates. Everyone is still learning how to play off of each other, including FVV, but they are starting to develop chemistry among themselves.

    Even Jalen's give-and-go plays with Sengun are starting to develop, and frankly, they are a thing of beauty. The initial offense between FVV and Sengun is in many ways similar to the triangle offense, where there are many options, but it takes familiarity and experience in reading and reacting to what the defense is doing.

    It is really a thing of beauty once the players get more acquainted with the system and opportunities presented to them. I would still want a reliable three-point shooter that will open up the lane more. I think the offense will be much more effective with the current Ime offensive system in the long term once the players learn how to take advantage of the opponents' focus on Sengun and his incredible passing skill. I am more worried about their defense and rebounding than the offense in the long term.
     
  4. j@amc

    j@amc Member

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    Jalen and some other guys would be helped by strong outlet passing and even FVV looking ahead to catch guys on lob threats to the rim. But the key to a modern break is getting a shooter to the 3-point line. This is where Cam Whitmore can be an elite threat. If Jalen is on a lob run to the rim, Jabari is filling the lane, Amen or FVV are bringing it up, and Cam is on the wing -- you should score. And if the defense recovers, give it to Sengun at the FT line.

    It's not quite the Paul Westhead/Loyola Marymount break but think back with me: substitute Sengun in that Hank-Gathers-catch-at-the-top-of-the-key role, have the PG drive the basket, add a solid scorer on the wing (Bo Kimble played by Cam Whitmore), everyone else fills in.
     
    Mathloom likes this.
  5. AroundTheWorld

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    Here is a slightly deeper look at the stat comparison between the two that goes beyond "17 points on 14 shots".

    [​IMG]

    Aside from all the counting stats, I recommend looking at the circled areas. Biggest thing that stood out to me was, one has a +10 net rating, the other one has a -9 net rating. Pretty massive difference, especially considering that they share a lot of minutes together.

    Very simplified analysis why?
    • One passes the ball a lot to the team's franchise player Alperen Sengun (who then produces high quality offense), the other one doesn't do that nearly as much.
    • One is much better at defense than the other
     
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  6. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I don't know anything about Loyola Marymount but that kind of high octane transition sounds great.

    I suspect part of the reason we don't see Jalen on the break as often as other SG's is because Ime wants everyone to rebound. If everyone is rebounding, who's going to beat an opponent to their basket?

    Transition puts a lot of pressure and raises the energy of the team. If we're not doing it, then the other team is doing it to us. I can't think of a team that needs it more than we do. We're a very slow half court oriented team who is struggling to generate quality offense if Jalen is not on fire.

    We don't need an overhaul, we just need to cut out a couple of our worst shots and try to replace them with ones that have a chance of being better. It would also give Amen, Jalen and Cam stability because SG's need easy points to balance their efficiency, it's an important part of their offensive diet so to speak. It keeps them consistent because they're otherwise scoring the most difficult points breaking down the defense from the perimeter.
     
  7. raining threes

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    This

    I'm very happy with where the offense is right now.

    Could it be better? Yes, are there growing pains yes. I'm just happy to have a young competitive team. This team is an all star go to when you need a bucket type player away from being a very good team

    Can will really help a lot by adding a scorer to the second unit.
     
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  8. a time to chill

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    Also, FVV averages 37 minutes per game to Jalen's 30. Jalen has often found himself benched for long stretches and to close out games.
     
  9. j@amc

    j@amc Member

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    LMU ran the best NCAA break ever. Google "Loyola Marymount fast break" and you can see lots of arrows and drawings of how LMU filled the lanes. Super simple and highly effective. They also gambled with an insane amount of double-teaming full-court pressure (which I'm not advocating). They did score 149 on Michigan in a 40-minute game.

    If Hank Gathers hadn't died on the court that year, they might have won it all.
     
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  10. AroundTheWorld

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    It's true that this happened, but that has no impact on the per 36 and the net rating and BPM and WS stats.
     
  11. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    That sounds like someone should make a movie about it. Thanks for the tip.
     
  12. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    FVV's attempts inside the arc is in line with everyone else's in the starting lineup. FVV - 6.4, Brooks - 5.9, Jabari - 5.7, Green - 8.0, Sengun 13.3. The only spot on the floor anyone on the team outshoots FVV is around the rim. He's a poor finisher, yes, but he attempts fewer layups and floaters than anyone else too.

    If you want to generate more shots at the rim for Jalen, Jabari, Cam, Brooks whoever then I'm all for it. But an offense doesn't get to pick and choose their spots that way. Firstly, that's Sengun's territory because he's a better finisher than anyone else and can't space the floor himself. Secondly, outside of transition or catching the defense napping on a cut (those opportunities are limited) the only way to the rim is to get there yourself. Sengun and Jeff Green can do this. The others cannot.
     
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  13. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    The argument isn’t that Fvv is better than Jamal Murray. It’s that Denver runs a similar offense as Houston which literally is the future of the league which is wildly successful. Sure we aren’t Denver yet and sure FVV isn’t quite Murray but this offense can work.

    but go ahead and deflect by cherry picking one stat and calling me stupid. It’s what you do.
     
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  14. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Guys, stop it. FVV shoots 40.5% inside the arc and 40.5% on layups. Jalen Green is one of the worst starting scorers in the NBA and is making 45% inside the arc. I'm using that example not to advocate for Green, but to show you that FVV is significantly worse inside the arc than the player most of you have been saying is useless offensively most nights.

    It has NOTHING to do with impact, vorp, all that sh*t ATW is circling. We can have all the positive effects and FVV just cuts out his 2 worst shots in a game. They do not go to Jalen Green, they go to whoever you think is the best person to try to get us points at the rim. Try someone new.

    The stats you posted to dump on Jalen actually destroyed your own argument.
     
  15. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    I don't think it has anything to do with him "holding back" young guards because it could cost him money. IF he's holding them back at all (which is debatable), it's likely more a matter of a veteran player trying to win games who wants the ball in the hands of the players he trusts most. Including himself. It's Ime's job, along with Stone's, to determine whether we should trust our young guys implicitly even when they fail so that they can get up to speed quicker. If the task is to win as many games this year as possible, then not trusting the kids 100% makes perfect sense.
     
  16. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I'll just refer you again to the percentages you forgot to attach to the TS% and attempts inside the arc:

    FVV should be taking fewer of those shots, especially layups which I discovered thanks to your link. For untested people to deserve to get a shot, their % has to be better than FVV. Cam, Amen and Jalen so far are much better than FVV at just creating points at the rim. It's not a high bar to clear. FVV is really bad inside the 2PT line. Compared to the league. Compared to our young guys. Compared to our bigs. Compared to our guys who suck at it. He's bad. I'm not sure why this is contentious.
     
  17. AroundTheWorld

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    Why do you think it's sh*t?

    By the way, I actually agree with you on one thing, sometimes FVV could improve his shot selection particularly on long twos early in the shot clock. When they go in, it's ok, but sometimes I'm like...dude...why.
     
  18. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    No, don't walk it back dude. Stick to your guns. You said it's a Jokic centric offense. Go ask a Nuggets fan or the GM how important Murray is to winning in Denver.

    Hint: it's more than FVV. According to everyone on earth but you it seems. You're saying FVV is not as good but we can achieve the same results. HOW? Sengun is not better than Jokic and FVV is not better than Murray, but we will do just as well? lol

    I'm out dude. I know your next move is the goal posts one.
     
  19. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Our offense is a lot better when we aren’t weighed down by a streaky inefficient shooting guard with questionable decision making. When Jalen is confident and shooting 50% from 3 our offense is great…when he isn’t it’s subpar. Cam isn’t ready for prime time yet but he is tracking to be much better than Jalen in every aspect. He isn’t a true SG but who cares.

    I’d love if they could get Caruso to replace Holiday as well.

    Anyhow, placing blame on FVV, Sengun, and Udoka is strange when the problem is painfully clear.
     
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  20. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    That's a fair point. I'd just say, I'm not advocating for trusting the kids 100%. I just want someone else who already makes layups at a higher rate to take a couple away from FVV. That's all really.
     
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