Sengun/FVV-centric offense won't survive long term

I would also like for us to run more DHOs with Sengun like Saboner is doing in Sactown. I think it would benefit Jabari and Jalen a lot if we ran more Sengun DHOs with those two players.

 

Yeah it's probably not sustainable long term, but nothing in the NBA really is. Remember KD/Harden/Kyrie... or even Harden and CP3.

I'm only really looking at this year, and next. I think the Sengun/FVV offense is fine for our goals as long as add more shooting or our young players improve enough to add more offensive firepower to win closer games, and maybe a play-in/playoff series.

The fact is without a superstar to pair with Sengun, or whomever becomes an all-star caliber player (or a young player becoming a superstar to pair with Sengun, etc.) this team or any team with a comparable roster, this is not a true contending team even if they are competitive.

 

If Jalen was the guy we wanted him to be, this offense would be lethal. Unfortunately it doesn't look like he's going to completely fulfill that role, so until you get that deadly scorer, this offense will be maxed out as currently constructed.

 

I agree with your points but I don't think it's really a problem (at least for now).

1. Yes Udoka is a defensive oriented coach whose offense was pretty reliant on stars being stars. However, at least he has shown to be able to structure a top defense with Sengun at center. That was always the biggest issue with Sengun's ceiling (close second may be his shooting) so to solve that issue literally made Sengun's ceiling to become Jokic-lite. So to me whatever other faults of Udoka, this is already so major that I'm willing to give him a pass for most other stuffs

2. FVV does shoot a lot of mid-rangers and he's bad at them. This was the case last year and before. FVV is not a great scorer. He's much better as a 3rd guy (like when Siakam and Kawhi were on the team) than lead guy. Paying $40mil/yr for him was a clear overpay. This was all clear coming into the season. And his role really is dependent on other players around him. I'm sure if Jabari and Green are scoring 20 apiece, he'd be happy to just be taking open 3s, but unfortunately our youngsters have not really stepped up. So... this is more of a "it is what it is."

3. To me the issue with the Rockets is still that they're just they don't have offensive weapons. Whether this is due to youth that needs development or that our players are fundamentally not talented enough, I don't know. Time will tell. But they are certainly not producing. There's not enough shooting and not enough penetration for easy buckets. The staples of an efficient offense. Maybe Udoka isn't helping them as much as some other offensive guru, but at the same time offense is a lot about the talent of players. To me it's less about shot selection and more about Jalen and Jabari simply being better scorers and better shooters. And if they can't, then the Rockets need to find a true alpha on offense to complement Sengun. But to me that's more of an offseason thing or even a next year thing, rather than today.

 

If anything, FVV should be shooting 2s MORE often, as he's one of the players most likely to draw a foul. His FTs PG are down this season. I'd like to see him start drawing more contact and get that FT% closer to 90. Ideally, he would be averaging 4 FTM per game for the season.

 

Meh. It's mostly personnel.

 

Ime most likely thought that through when he chose FVV over Harden.......

I would not be opposed to bringing in another point guard who is better than Aaron Holiday.

 

FVV is taking just the right amount of shots at the midrange. The Rockets aren't looking for a FVV midrange jumper as their first option. He's mostly being assisted on those attempts as a last resort. Fred is looking to distribute the ball to others, but when the ball ends up in Jalen or Jabari's hands, they often either defer by passing to someone else or miss an open shot. Fred is not the problem with the offense.

For this offense to improve, Stone needs to do some tweaking to the roster. It's not likely that Jalen is going to find consistency as an all-star caliber guard and Jock Landale has been complete trash. We need upgrades at those positions. The worst thing that can happen to this team is that FVV gets injured and misses significant time.

 

Hopefully it's just an issue of experience. Even talented players still need to make good decisions at a quick pace. They need a feel for the game. Jabari's shooting splits and efficiency look great, but his decision making and confidence vs someone like Jeff Green is night and day. Despite not being able to shoot lights out and 37 years old, Jeff knows how to attack a defense both on and off the ball. He didn't come into the league with this, it took him over a decade to become "Uncle Jeff".

Udoka specifically pointed out Jalen's struggles with decision making. Jalen doesn't know when to attack, when to pass, and has bad turnovers. Even with his shot coming around lately this is still an issue. We don't have a choice right now but to ride through it and hope for improvement, but he simply isn't making the most of his opportunities.

 

the defensive recipe against us is to choke/throttle al.p. and fred as much as possible and force jalen and shooters to beat them off the dribble or spot up
that's why fred and aaron lighting up those long 2's
we don not have enough shooting and it is magnified when dillon and bari are out
tari missing games doesn't help either

the obvious solution staring us straight in the face is cam getting off a lot of clean looks with his consistent release
he's a much more efficient and consistent shooter than jalen
and dare i say a better finisher

the problem is when we make that move....jalen's trade value goes straight into the toilet
but cam should take holiday's minutes fo sure

 

Should have known this was a long winded mathloom thread. Yeah sure no offense can be Sengun fvv centric long term because it’s not like a similar formula has ever worked.

Oh wait, the defending champions run a very similar big man centric offense with some guy named jokic.

When the offensive priorities are 1. Alpi 2. Fvv 3. Green (as a guy whose only job is to take open shots and cut) this offense is beautiful.

The more wide open 2’s fvv takes, the better. You are still stuck in Moreyball lol.


keep the bad takes coming my man.

 

FVV's TS% is 56.4% which is a bit below league average. Jalen's TS% is 53.5% which is well below league average. Let's not round to whole numbers to try and make a point. Fred scores 17.5 points on 14.0 shots, Jalen scores 17.4 points on 14.3 shots. You advocate taking shots from the former to give to the latter because the latter is more efficient at twos, but that's only true at the rim and Jalen cannot get there at will.

I don't agree with your premise that FVV is taking too many twos and is bad at them. He shoots 54% in the midrange and his shot selection is good, he simply struggles at the rim where he doesn't take many shots anyway. He has more attempts from three than all other spots combined. Please look at his shot chart and tell me which twos he should be avoiding.

Fred VanVleet 2023-24 Shooting | Basketball-Reference.com

 

I am also hoping it's just a matter of youth and inexperience. But honestly I'm becoming very concerned with Green. Not even that he's shooting badly but the fact that he's dialing down his usage and STILL shooting badly. I feel like perhaps he needs a full reboot of some sort. Jabari to me will work as a role player even if he doesn't find his offense, but honestly he should be more aggressive. There's no reason he should be taking fewer shots than Dillon Brooks.

 

To me, the next phase of the offense is talking with everyone about big-picture ideas on a controlled fast break. How can we run as a team to put pressure on the rim, space the floor for the right open three-point shot, and smoothly get into an offensive half-court set?

We lose 6 to 10 points a game in transition (3 to 5 possessions) where we have the numbers and get a shot blocked, a turnover, or some breakdown that leads to deflection, etc.

Our second string with either Amen or Holiday at the point runs an inefficient break; FVV almost always dials the tempo back unless he's driving and calling his own number (and those are not always great shots, unless he's drawing fouls).

Just a little practice time and communication would go a long, long way here.

 

Who deserves those opportunities more? Jalen/Jabari?

This is just a weird thing to criticize Fred for. Like I said earlier, Fred is looking to pass first and Sengun has benefited the most from that. You don't want Fred passing up an open look at the midrange just to pass to an inefficient Green or Smith Jr. You're risking a brick, turnover, or shot clock violation by doing so. Fred is making smart decisions with the basketball which is why we're above .500.

Also, everyone on the team is still getting their touches and has a high offense usage rate. It's just that Jalen Green and Jabari Smith haven't always made the most of the opportunities they do get. Criticize those players directly instead of saying Fred needs to adjust his game. This isn't last year's tanking 'Pray for Victor' Rockets. They expect to win games. Winning basketball means to keep doing the thing that's working. As long as both players remain healthy a Sengun/FVV-centric offense is money.