We also have 2 pitching coaches since Strom left. Maybe it helps prevent guys from getting poached (either because they are happy with their title or because other teams would have to promote them higher?)
I simply don't see them sitting Abreu more than 25% of the games unless he's injured. Him playing everyday was determined just as much by his contract and his status and history as it was just Dusty. Unless Belt can play LF there simply is no more playing time for him. The only other option would be Yordan playing more LF than anyone expects, or an injury and I think both would be bad.
I just think that even if you do get all those prospects, and hit with more of them than you miss on...to go on a run that is anything near what we have been on, you need some strong talent already on the team too. If we were to trade away all those guys (which I think is less than 1% chance of happening) we would have no base for those guys to add to I think sometimes we feel like this entire run was built off the prospects we collected during the terrible years. Altuve was already here, Keuchel was already here, others as well. If we are going into a rebuild that would take us past the window of Diaz and Brown being significant contributors, I want no part of it.
I think planning on another 10 year run is optimistic. I'm content with trying to win one or more World Series through 2027, 2028 or whenever the ride ends. Stockpile prospects in the minors and use free agency to fill holes until the ride ends. The Astros can dump all expiring deals when the ride ends, and hopefully have a short rebuild as they have been stockpiling prospects along with whatever they get from trades. While rebuilding, use free agency to sign guys to contracts that the Astros can trade at the deadline (mostly relievers, starting pitchers).
The Astros under Strom had two assistants.... Miller and Murphy. Strom had both of them work with the Astros pitchers, in the minors and big leagues. The last couple of seasons - Strom was not as involved, he only worked with the veterans or if one of the younger pitchers were struggling. When Strom stepped aside, he suggested that the Astros keep both Miller and Murphy, because they were both very good and both had split up working with the pitchers. Miller and Murphy get along well - so it made sense to promote both. Michael Collins is basically an assistant pitching coach - as he splits his time between working with the catchers and the pitchers.
Based on what I have heard in the past - I expect the Astros to target players from Cuba and other countries that can come over as free agents on somewhat affordable contracts. They may not have the upside of #1 starters, but they have value and the risk is acceptable financially. I do not expect the Astros to hit Japan or Korea hard because those markets are saturated by high spending teams. Right now - Japan is the closest thing to the big leagues, their player talent is at an all time high - but that is also reflected in the cost.
If Houston wants a potential upgrade over Jon Singleton on the bench, I wouldn’t mind them throwing Joey Gallo a bottom dollar deal. Spring training starts in 39 days and there is still so many players looking for spots: 2 star position players (Bellinger and Chapman) 2 ToR SP (Montgomery and Snell) 7 middle of the order bats (Hernandez, Brantley, Pederson, Soler, Hoskins, Martinez, Belt) 6 middle of the rotation SP (Stroman, Paxton, Manaea, Imanaga, Ryu, Kershaw) 5 elite RP (Hader, Hicks, Neris, Chapman, Stephenson) And a metric ton of fringey regulars, quality bench players, BoR SP, and upside RP. I guess the TV revenue issues are really pinching teams, either that or they’re all colluding to get prices to drop.
I hope I'm wrong... but I'm not expecting the Astros to sign anyone else this off-season to a major league contract unless they trade someone to reduce payroll.
I just don't see abreu playing 150 games. You would rather have 2020 Abreu for 110 games than 2023 Abreu for 150.
Hard for me to believe that. Signing someone like Gallo (or an upside RP) for <$2M/1yr to replace a guy like Singleton who they have to pay $700k is peanuts difference and there’s no way money is that tight.
It's not that they don't have the money. They don't want to go over the tax unless it's someone Crane really likes. Nook has said several times "Crane would go into the tax for the right guy." I doubt that is Joey Gallo. Maybe they do well in arbitration and end up with a little room under the tax, but I just have zero expectations that they will push over the tax until I see it and right now with arbitration estimates they are right near the line according to fangraphs.
When I said there’s no way the money is that tight I was referring to their CBT payroll. I think they still have ~$5M, maybe even up to $10M left before they incur penalty. I know what the numbers are out there but they aren’t exact.
I’d heard less than 500k somewhere. Nobody knows right now, however, as arbitration isn’t done and it’s all guesswork. Also- not sure what the non payroll number is.
Unless Abreu spends time on the IL, I would bet any amount of money he plays at least 136 games - that's 1 day off per week. He simply has that kind of cache. The Astros signed him to be an everyday all-star 1B. They are not benching him more than 20% of games. Former MVP type players are given lots of leeway as they age. Biggio played 141 g his final season and he 30% below league average with a bat and had no range at 2B. In Bagwell's final season he played 24 of 25 team games before his DL stint and then PH 15 of the teams final 22 games with 1 arm and unable to play in the field. Carlos Beltran played 129g his final year for the Astros despite an 81 OPS+ and much better DH in Evan Gattis (107) sitting on the bench. Robin Yount played 127 of 146 games (16 on DL) in his final season despite a SLG under .380 and OPS+ of only 90. Paul Molitor played 126 of 142 games (20g on DL) as a DH his final year despite an OPS+ of 86 Once a player has earned that level of respect and accomplishment they will play 80% of the time because that's what the team signed them for and expects. Anyone thinking Abreu plays only 110g unless he is on IL is dreaming
Gallo is a really interesting idea. He can play multiple spots and has real ability when he minimizes the hole in his swing. From what KG told me, Gallo is the most emotional and at times, thin skinned player in baseball. The Astros coaches were shocked when NY got him - they knew he would fail because of the media and fans - and he did. The media and fans in Houston are overall easy to deal with - he may do really well in Houston like he did at times in Texas. He also can play the outfield.
Interesting - I agree his skill set fits well as a replacement for Singleton, and he should be very cheap. Would his thin skin cause problems when he and his team are booed and jeered incessantly on the road?
The bench as it stands now is an empty page. Only Caratini is assured a spot, the rest will all have to win a place on the team in the Spring. Dubon is a nice player to have around but if the Astros are looking for a little cap space or another reliever he is also a nice trade candidate. Kessinger and Singleton will both face strong competition for a place on the bench.
I agree with the first part of your post - the bench is very very weak. But the second part - Kessinger and Singleton will face strong competition. I simply don't see anyone ready to challenge them - maybe by midseason if they aren't doing well but not in the spring. And the lack of MLB ready position players is a major, but short-term problem. By 2025 I could see Barber, Melton, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Corona, and Wagner all MLB ready even if they aren't starter calibur yet. But not in April 2024.
