I agree, that roster currently projects to a war somewhere in the mid 30s. Thats on par with what teams like the Red Sox, Brewers, Giants, Cubs, Marlins, and Reds project for this season; teams that aren’t terrible but that are not realistic contenders. I don’t see Crane sitting in that range. He will either tear it down (which would mean most of those SP plus Alvarez, McCormick, and Pena would be traded) or add big pieces. The good news is that roster would be a really low payroll so there’d be some money to spend if they wanted to keep contending. How the farm system develops this year (along with how younger MLB guys like Diaz, Pena, Brown, and Javier play) will be huge factors in their decisions next offseason.
Mid 30s with about $100M to spend. That should be a comfortable 88+ win true talent team provided Brown doesn't screw up free agency and injuries don't plague the Astros. 3 position players needed in free agency at bat first positions won't be that expensive in FA. Will need at least 1 SP which should be costly, but doable.
Yup. They will have plenty of money to spend- BUT they need the system to be producing or on the cusp of producing starting caliber players to fill half of the holes… if (it’s a huge if) that happens, then they can consider spending up to the tax line and trying to compete. The issue is that, it’s a massive ask for the farm system and player development system and in a very limited window of time.
Looking at that 2026 roster, if they tore that down they’d be selling: Diaz Pena Dubon McCormick Alvarez Meyers Javier Brown Garcia McCullers France Abreu Plus anyone else who emerges this season or next season. Those 12 guys would have enough surplus value to bring back 8-9 Top 100 prospects (on par with someone like Drew Gilbert) plus 5-6 Org Top 10 guys (on par with someone like Korey Lee or Ryan Clifford). To me it seems like if you have enough talent on your big league roster to bring back that kind of haul, you should still be contending.
If we did a sell and things didn’t go horribly wrong, and ate some salary- I think I had 20 prospects including 10 or 12 top 100’s coming back to us and that might be light but if Diaz and Yordan are both worth 3 top 100’s, Javier worth 1 or 2 if you pay some salary, brown worth a couple because he’s a really good pitcher and the other guys worth anything then yeah- that’s a good enough team probably, to add to.
I think it’s pretty obvious that this season will shape the future of this team going forward. This team is a contender in the AL.
The chances of Melton, Dezenzo, Corona, Loperfido, Arrighetti and Gordon ALL developing into MLB regulars is incredibly incredibly low. Even if all were top 100 prospects the chances that ALL of them make it would be very low, with none of them being that quality of prospect if we get 3 of those guys to the point that they are mlb regulars that would be a great return on investment. We will either have to supplement the roster with some older (therefore not needing long contracts) free agents or trades to fill at least a few of those spots, or reality is we won't be very good. In fact, that roster could very well be so bad we would be better off trading Alvarez by the trade deadline of that season (maybe Javier also) and go into full rebuild mode
Of the team decides it expects to compete in 2025 then (let's assume Altuve is extended) then 3rd base is the only hole (assuming current holes are filled and JV/Pressly continue to be good and options vest). Dezenzo really looks like the only current prospect with a chance to fill 3rd that soon at a decent level of production. There is enough still on the roster that the team should still be very good in that scenario, but Diaz and/or Chas will need to have another good year in 2024 and earn a spot in the top half of the lineup. If the team decides Dezenzo is not the answer then it becomes tricky because FA prices are at an all-time high. Based on the cost of a guy like Matt Chapman vs keeping Bregman for an extra 2-3 yrs and (maybe) up to $5-$10M per, Alex may very well be a better option and become acceptable. The other option is to identify a young controllable, but established 3B and trade for him. Here is a list of 3B who have 3+ years of control (-2026), are not butchers in the field (top 75% in OAA and/or DRS) and have been at least average with the bat (100+ wRC+ and/or OPS+) in at least 365 innings (25% innings in 162g season) in 2023. Ke'Bryan Hayes Austin Riley Manny Machado DJ LeMaheiu Isaac Paredes Royce Lewis Nolan Arenado Jose Ramirez Josh Jung Jaimer Candelario Patrick Wisdom. As you can see there simply isn't much here. Hayes, Riley, Machado, Lewis, Arenado, Ramirez, and Jung aren't getting traded. (Arenado is only really possibility and he has no trade clause and reportedly loves St Louis and won't leave) That leaves LeMahieu, Paredes, Candelario, and Wisdom. LeMahieu and Wisdom are not true everyday 3B and Candelario just signed a FA deal w/ Reds and is very unlikely to be moved so soon. That leaves Paredes who could be a very good option. The Rays love high ceiling cheap pitching so maybe a deal around Hunter Brown could work. But overall this exercise simply reinforces that Bregman should be resigned even if it means expanding Crane's usual limits. Get something done.
The problem with this is the contract length that players of that level would be offered by other teams It's great to say we have $100 million a year to spend on 3 bats and a SP, but when we offer a hitter $20 a year for 4 years and someone else offers $20 a year for 7, it's a pretty easy decision for the player to make. I fully agree there would be money there to spend but I think the same problem we have in extending our own would apply to any of the better FA's, we won't match contract length. I have no doubt Crane would offer big numbers to Bregman and Tucker both, if they would accept a 5 year deal
I think Diaz and Brown have too many years of control to consider moving them, if that is the direction they decided to go. I think even if you wanted to say let's rebuild it a little, you wouldn't have to go all in like we did before. Even doing that doesn't guarantee you the top pick anymore.
I get what you are saying and nobody higher on Diaz and Brown than me, but because of all the control they have left that’s why I’d want to trade them. if they pan out to what I think they will be it will be worth 3 top 100 prospects and you just have to trade them (and Yordan) and dump the 26 and 27 season and hope 28 opens up another 10 year type run with all the prospects you get from these 3 guys being traded with 3 years of cheap control left. Thats a full reload of your system if you do it right. Middling around and hoping you get to quasi decent in 28 is a wasted opportunity imo. Unless you want to offer them 5 year extensions or something at 3 years left to give them money and lock it in early. That would be my #1 wish with all of them.
Cubs coming out of left field to poach the Astros staff… Kanzler was really liked, but Cubs giving him a major promotion.
Do they bring in a replacement or all Cintron for now? What did Kanzler do and what does Cintron do? Basically I'm wondering why they had 2 hitting coaches and do all MLB teams have multiple hitting coaches?
They still have Snitker so they had 3. My understanding is most organizations have multiple + other positions like hitting coordinator, game plan, offensive coordinators, video analyzers, and who knows what else. Kinesiology coordinator? I would bet most teams have at least 4 coaches in uniform and out who work specifically with the hitters
Belt had an .890 ops last year against righties; which are most starters. I would think he sees 100-110 games, not 70. Abreu was a .654 against righties and .741 against lefties. I would think Belt sits against lefties and is otherwise rotating 1B/DH with Abreu. If a lefty is out there you move Yordan to DH and plug Dubon in CF because Dubon hits lefties very well but struggles against righties (.858 lefties/ .677 righties). Seems like good maximization of value.
I don't know if the Astros will seek a replacement from outside the organization. I haven't heard anything about the Astros being overly concerned. Kanzler did a lot of work with players on mechanics in their swing, and also worked with them on defensive positioning and maximizing their movements. He also helped prepare for the next series. He really ultimately was a jack of all trades for the coaching staff. He was a middle school teacher only like a decade ago. Cintron does some duplicative things, but also has a more hands on relationship with the players. Kanzler worked a lot with the younger players. The trend is towards having multiple guys like Kanzler. They have various titles, but with so many players - it really requires multiple people.
