2026 Astros? Kenedy Corona CF Yordan Alvarez DH Chas McCormick LF Yainer Diaz C Jacob Melton RF Zach Dezenzo 3B Joey Loperfido 1B Brice Matthews 2B Jeremy Pena SS Michael Palma C Will Wagner util. Pedro Leon OF/2B Grae Kessinger inf. Christian Javier SP Lance McCullers Jr. SP Luis Garcia SP Alonzo Tredwell SP Spencer Arrighetti SP Colton Gordon SP Bryan Abreu- closer Bennett Sousa Michael Knorr Dylan Coleman Jake Bross Andrew Taylor Rhett Kouba
I understand $300M is tough. But look at the market. Will be 29 just before his 1st FA season starts. Never had a major injury. Gold glove and silver slugger winner before 27 years old. Never had a full season under 5 bWAR (4 consecutive if you prorated 2020= 5.1) Bryce Harper had 2 5+ bWAR seasons going into FA and has now had 3 in 12 years. 13 yrs $330M. Giancarlo Stanton had 2 5+ bWAR seasons when he signed his huge extension w/ Miami prior to his final arb season and now he has 3 in 13 seasons. 13 yrs $325M Both of those only stayed under $30M AAV by going over 10 yrs. Comparable early extensions: Fernando Tatis Jr: after 6 yrs= $36M per season. Christian Yelich: $26 M per season. There is absolutely nothing in his history or skillset that makes him a risk. His body type and skills even actually tend to age better than most. He is WORTH $40+M per year for the next few years even if you only figure WAR @$8M per instead of $10M. He will expect $35M+ per year on any contract under 8 years, $30M if 8-10 and $25M+ on any longer deal. And he will get it and be one if the safest bets ever to "earn" his contract.
22 MLB players had 300+ PA as a RF in 2023 Ronald Acuna Jr. - 8.2 bWAR / 6.2 career per 162g Lane Thomas - 3.2 bWAR / 2.3 career per 162g Nick Castellanos- 1.5 bWAR / 1.6 career per 162g Fernando Tatis Jr.-5.5 bWAR /*7.4 career per 162g Alex Verdugo- 2.6 bWAR / 2.8 career per 162g George Springer- 2.1 bWAR / 5.1 career per 162g Adolis Garcia- 4.2 bWAR / 3.8 career per 162g Seiya Suzuki- 2.8 bWAR / 3.1 career per 162g T. Hernandez-2.1 bWAR / 2.6 career per 162g Hunter Renfroe- (-0.6) bWAR / 2.0 career per 162g Max Kepler- 2.9 bWAR / 3.3 career per 162g Anthony Santander-3.0 bWAR/ 2.2 career per 162g Mookie Betts-*8.3 bWAR / 8.3 career per 162g Josh Lowe-3.7 bWAR / 3.5 career per 162g Michael Conforto-0.7 bWAR / 3.0 career per 162g Jordan Walker- (-0.1) bWAR rookie Will Brennan- 0.5 bWAR / 1.1 career per 162g Jesus Sanchez- 1.7 bWAR / 1.9 career per 162g Starling Marte- (-0.8)bWAR / 4.6 career per 162g Ramon Laureano- 1.8 bWr / 4.0 career per 162g Kerry Carpenter- 1.9 bWAR / 2.6 career per 162g *bWAR numbers include time in the infield especially SS that inflates the number. Tucker: 5.4 bWAR. Take away his miserable 2018 cup of coffee and he averages 5.9 bWAR per 162g There is no world where Tucker is not a top 4 RF in baseball. He is going to get paid.
No, I understand the market and he will most likely get it. I’m saying if I’m running the show, I’m not giving him $300mil. I have some reservations about Tuck.
An athlete is in a high risk occupation by definition. When multiplied by time the risk grows at an increased rate as time goes on, resulting in extreme risk of injury over time. The more players you are willing to make this "bet" on the less operating capitol you will have to build a team on. A few exceptional individuals supported by whatever you can scrape up with what little funds you have available will not make a competitive team. Ever. You can go through all the mathematical contortions you like but it will not change these immutable facts. Money is a limited commodity that is likely to become even more limited as revenue from broadcasting dries up. Prudence dictates avoiding large long term commitments. Victory conditions for fans are very different than for owners. Victory for an owner is about return on investment. Winning or losing games is incidental to return on investment.
They will extend Altuve. CF Melton 2B Altuve DH Alvarez C Diaz RF McCormick 3B Dezenzo LF Corona 1B Loperfido SS Pena Bench: Meyers, Dubon, CJ Stubbs, Kessinger SP: Javier, Brown, Arrighetti, McCullers, Garcia, Gordon RP: Abreu, Whitley, Coleman, Sousa, Dubin, Gage, Kouba
That’s a shitty team. Unless Hunter brown (who you left off) is a cy young guy or something. Then it’s only moderately shitty.
Yeah forgot Hunter. I was doing it off the cuff and by memory. But it would not surprise me if he had a season ending injury (he's a pitcher after all) or simply doesn't develop beyond 2023 and the others outperform him. Not likely but would not be shocking.
That's likely the roster of a semi rebuilding team, either we will trade off some of those good players to kickstart or we will sign free agents. That lineup is likely way better or quite a bit worse than we will actually see. I agree Altuve will be here one way or the other.
That’s assuming they try to make all of the loss of Bregman up at third base. They may upgrade another position and try to get solid production at 3rd. First, let’s see what Matt Chapman gets. Even if Bregman leaves, there are trade candidates like Issac Paredes, Jake Burger (who the Astros almost got at the deadline), JD Davis, Brandon Lowe, Glaybar Torres… and possibly Ke’bryan Hayes. The time to extend Bregman and Tucker IMO was 2-3 years ago. I understand the concern of risk for Crane, but it will likely cost 30-33% more to sign them this summer and that’s a lot of money. A lot of this is going to hinge on how the farm system looks. They may actually be willing to spend more keeping players that are keystones if the system looks strong.
