Im not saying that Brown is always intentionally lying. Sometimes circumstances change - sometimes ownership steps in and makes a decision and sometimes lies are told. Click said the Astros were not going to sign a pitcher after Framber Valdez was hurt - ownership stepped in and Odorizzi was signed. Luhnow at one point said he wasn’t making a big deal - Verlander came later. Last year near the deadline, Brown said he was confident in the pitching they had in the rotation and the focus was the pen. A week later Verlander is with the Astros - and Brown said he knew the Astros needed a top level pitcher but didn’t think they could get one. Are these all lies? Maybe, but circumstance plays a part. What I can tell you is that Brown said last year the Astros had enough starting pitching - then traded for Verlander and said he knew the Astros needed more pitching and with Verlander the Astros were good enough to win the WS… then this winter said he knew the 2023 team maybe didn’t have enough starting pitching depth, but with McCullers and Garcia coming back, the 2024 team has the right pitching. So - my point is, when he says things to the media, he may lie by omission, he may flat out lie - circumstances could change. Brown also said he was confident signing Tucker and Bregman and neither has been close to happening.
Gun to head? Tucker and Bregman both walk AT THIS POINT. Another World Series and the situation could change. Offers have been made to both. They were more aggressive with Tucker, but he isn’t as interested. Bregman told a former Astros executive that he will reevaluate at the end of the year. Astros internally feel they could be at a cross roads after this season and are being cautious. If you look at most the names the Astros have been linked to, it is short term deals or high value deals for Cuban players. My understanding is that the owner and front office don’t even know what they will do 10 months from now.
Gives some credence to the notion Crane might be contemplating selling. Not that I know anything…just reading the tea leaves a bit
Crane can play it very close to the vest at times. So I don’t know if he is going to sale or buy out some of his investors. What I can say is that if he is trying to sell the team, it hasn’t leaked inside the organization
Crane has dictated terms that Luhnow coached him and convinced him of. No contracts over 6 years. That means that the team will always be pre FA players, players who sign an extension during pre-arb, or mid to late 30s guys they can get on short term details. That's it.
The Astros have offered Tucker a deal over 6 years. It’s not 10-12 like Tuck wants, but it’s still a long deal.
It's nice to hear. The problem is many teams won't bat an eye at 10 yrs and players (reasonably) want the security.
Tucker will never resign. He is looking for a big bag of cash for a lot of years. I still feel we can resign Bregman but it won't be cheap. What scares me is that we won't be able to find anyone to replace his production. Good third baseman are hard to find.
We “can’t” resign Bregman. He’s going to get (with a good season) 8 or 10 years at 25-30 million per and crane won’t go there for a 30 YO.
Of course Crane could resign Bregman (and Tuck). Choosing to not do so doesn't mean he "can't". Big difference between can't and won't.
Agree with this. The thing about Crane is in his mind (because they've chosen not to do this with their other big FA and they continued to be successful) he doesn't need to offer these long-term contracts just as he's been conditioned to think that he doesn't have to go over the luxury tax. He may say he's willing to do it for the right player (or situation) but again when he sees the success they've had not going over the tax he's got to be thinking why change the model that's worked for them. I can certainly appreciate that line of thinking but there's also the idea that the past doesn't equal the future.
Problem with NOT resigning Alex Bregman: FA in 2024 who could replace him: Yoan Moncada- coming off 0.7 bWAR season where he had to be optioned mid-season. Eugenio Suarez- 31% K rate and SLG dropped below .400 in 2023. Brandon Drury- didn't play 3B in 2023, only 5 g in 2022. Jace Peterson- 3.3 total bWAR in nearly 8 years of service time. Negative bWAR in 2023. Joey Wendle- only started 40+g at 3B once in career. Coming off negative bWAR 2023. Current prospects who have played at least 20% of their games at 3B and reached Asheville (high A) David Hensley- failed in MLB chance in 2023 Grae Kessinger- SS by trade, will he hit? Shay Whitcomb- 31% K rate in AAA Chad Stevens- 36% K rate in AA Zach Dezenzo- 81 pt drop in wRC+/8% rise in K rate from high A to AA. Great production in AFL but 29% K rate. Will he be ready? Will Wagner- better @2B projects as utility/bench questionable arm for 3B. Tim Borden II- 36% K rate in high A Austin Deming- 110 total pro PA I hate the idea of putting all the eggs in the Zach Dezenzo basket.
JD Davis would be my prediction for Bregman’s replacement if Dezenzo isn’t ready. Anthony Rendon would only have 2 years left on his contract. Ryan McMahon will probably be available.
At th So far it has worked great. By following Luhnow's plan the Astros have put together one of the greatest decades in the history of the game. At this point I am hoping he stays that course for as long as he is an owner. The further in the past Luhnow gets the edgier I get.
Who knows what will happen and who might emerge. When Springer walked out the door did you have McCormick nearly matching Springer's production in Toronto? Springer 2021-23 .263 BA, .338 OBP, .798 OPS, 121 OPS+ McCormick 2021-23 .259 BA, .336 OBP, .786 OPS, 117 OPS+ Also, McCormick is improving while Springer is declining.
This. It's like belichick stocking with the same principles once Brady left. Worked for better part of two decades as long as you have the greatest QB of all time. Astros system worked for the better part of a decade as long as you had the greatest gm in the history of baseball. Guess we will see how all that works out when we don't.
