Glasnow and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez are the only 2 guys off the board who I think Houston even talked to. Here’s the list of guys I think Houston has genuine interest in: Josh Hader Yariel Rodriguez Jordan Hicks Matt Moore Robert Stephenson James Paxton Phil Maton Michael Brantley Dylan Cease Randy Arozarena
This has been a very slow off-season so far. I mean the Dodgers spent a 1.2 billion, but that was only 3 players. Still plenty of guys available even in the bargain basement level where the Astros are shopping.
Combo of Ohtani/Yamamoto holding up the market and so much financial uncertainty due to RSN bankruptcies. Should unclog big time next week.
If the rumor I read ends up playing out (Framber/Pena out, Arozarena/RP/prospects in), I think on paper it would it would only be a net loss of 3-4 wins/yr in 2024-2025, a push in 2026-2027, with the prospects projected to add 2-3 wins/yr total from 2028-2033. And that doesn’t account for the potential added payroll flexibility that they’d have after trading Framber; if they add someone like Paxton or Yariel Rodriguez with that money, it could get it closer to a 1-2 win projected drop in 2024-2025, with the upside/downside potential greatly favoring upside for Houston.
Nah- anytime after April 15 of 2027. That would make them super 2. July 1 of 2027 would make them regular 3 years of arbitration through 2033.
You aren't, you're giving up a cost controlled SS and a potential Cy young level workhorse. Arozarena isn't even significantly cheaper than Framber or noticeably better than Pena, from an upside perspective it would be an absolutely absurd trade for a team currently hoping to win the WS the next 2 seasons. Hell he isn't even a Tucker replacement to free him up to trade because he's pretty much locked in LF. Reallocating Frambers 200 innings to some unreliable/unproven rando would be the height of stupidity. If Framber goes anywhere, a proven solid starter better be coming back.
The rumored deal was Pena for Arozarena “and a reliever”. That leaves a lot to question. Pete Fairbanks is one of the best relievers in the game and has 3 seasons of control. Shawn Armstrong is a rental but a pretty solid 7th/8th inning guy. TB has some other interesting relievers. Setting aside his off the field history, Arozarena is a bonafide star hitter. He has 3 consecutive full healthy seasons of >120 wRC+ and >2.7 fwar. He’s been a more valuable player than Pena. He comes with 3 seasons of control to Peña’s 4, but adding in a reliever gets the deal to a reasonably fair value. If Houston thinks Pena is topped out and/or they believe in Kessinger or Dubon, it makes sense. Framber for prospects only makes sense to me if it is being done to both “buy prospects” and replace Framber with an outside SP like Yariel Rodriguez or James Paxton. But again, that only really makes sense if Houston thinks Framber might regress and/or they feel really great about who they plan to replace his innings with, along with how they feel about the prospects they get. Trading away Pena and Framber this offseason is a huge gamble for a team still hoping to contend, and would likely be one of the defining moments of the GM’s tenure. So liking those moves would depend almost entirely on your faith in Dana Brown.
Lol. Thanks for the correction. I think you understand, but I will ask it here for the masses. How close to the majors and proven can a prospect be if he isn't projected to make his MLB debut until into the 2027 season? What kind of a ceiling/floor can that prospect have? How risky would that prospect be?
Trading away Framber, and Pena for Arozarena and others would tell me several things I) to give up Pena either they think he has reached his ceiling (or has over achieved) and will never be better than an average to slightly below average hitter or they are very high (and confident) on Kessinger or Whitcomb as the starting SS for this team in 2024, or at least 2025 if Dubon fills that role in 2024. But I think making Dubon a starter at any position is a huge mistake due to his versatility and lack of any impactful offensive skills. 2) to be interested in Arozarena the Astros must not be as confident in Meyers or any of the OF prospects in AAA/AA to be starters in the next 2-3 years. If this is the case they simply must trade Meyers now before he loses even more value. He does not have the skill set to be a 4th OF. 3) the Astros don't realize that every trade w/ TB ever involving a pitcher has drastically favored TB. They do not give away pitchers until they have peaked and are never as good or worth their salary after they discard them. I am not opposed trading those 2 guys but those deals would be a huge net negative unless there are at least 3 50+ grade prospects coming back as well. To me trading a #1 pitcher and everyday starter for a different everyday starter, RP, and prospects basically is surrendering Bregman/Altuve's final season. IF this trade goes down it would be borderline malpractice to not trade Bregman too as 2024 is over before it starts.
Nah man. If we traded Peña for a really solid 7th inning guy and RA we are a better team in 24 than if we go in with what we have right now. Dubon and RA is better than Pena and Meyer’s, and the river from Tampa solves our bullpen problem. The trades aren’t linked together they are 2 separate deals. If we did that then I’m fine with trading Framber for the Cuban guy and Bregman replacement at 3B and a pitching prospect. The Cuban guy obviously isn’t a trade it’s repurposing Frambers salary, but same same. JV/Javier/Brown/Cuban/France/Urquidy Presley/Abreu/TB Stud/ Graveman/Montero/Whitley/Souza/bielak with a bunch of stuff guys at triple A is plenty good enough paired with this lineup: Altuve/Alvarez/Bregman/arozarena/Tucker/abreu/Diaz/Mccormick/Dubon. **** man- there’s not an easy out in that lineup. Meyers plays every position at a gold glove level in Of, Kessinger backs up 3 IF positions and Diaz and Caratini act as very good backup Catcher and 1B. That’s a freaking stacked team. If you could make that happen and pull 3 legit prospects from Baltimore I’m absolutely doing it. Especially when you consider that LMj and Garcia are coming back midway through. Sign me up and write in the astros as the plurality favorite for the AL with that roster. If they are right about the 3 prospects from Baltimore then that keeps them in playoff contention through Alvarez/diaz/Brown as a window.
Sure trading Pena for Arozarena and a GOOD leverage reliever would improve 2024. But that doesn't address: 1)trading away Framber for prospects that would negatively impact 2024 2) there is a good chance any reliever TB trades away will suddenly not be good anymore.
They have all sorts of good relievers. I wouldn’t worry about that. I’d worry about trading for their prospects bc of what you point out.
White Sox rumored asking price for Cease from the Reds. What would be the equivalent for the Astros? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023...cease-trade-talks-between-white-sox-reds.html
I wish people would quit saying anything about the Astros giving up on Pena and Framber. It's exactly because they are good and controllable that they would be good trade assets. Whatever the White Sox can get for Cease is exactly what the Astros can get for Framber if not more. There's no giving up on them. There's no disappointment in them. Everyone knows they are great players and valuable. There are 5,000 other variables that factor in other than whether the Astros think those two players are good. It may just be that the overall health of the organization could be improved.by dealing one or both great players.
