Yamamoto signs with NY, Houston trades Framber to Toronto for a boatload of prospects, then the Astros outbid Pittsburgh for Yariel who goes on to win 3 Cy Young’s and just as many World Series.
The Astros certainly had a higher percentage of their top prospects "hit" than almost any other organization. Some of that was the strength of the player development, and part of that was that the media and "experts" grossly under-estimated the talent in the Astros system. Altuve was catching lightening in a bottle - but Alvarez wasn't. When he was coming over from Cuba, the coaches and Cuban players were raving about him. His work ethic was well known (he taught himself English and he planned to go to medical school). The only reason he wasn't a bigger prospect was his position (1st at the time) and because of the lack of great US scouting. He had all the pieces to be a 30 homer/100 walk type player at 19-20 years old. Even when he came stateside, he didn't work much with the hittting coaches in the minors because he was so adept at making his own adjustments. As far as the Astros going forward - I do have a couple concerns. First let me say that Dana Brown is probably the best scout and scouting director in baseball. However, he has made it clear that he is going to change the Astros model in some ways. He is going to seek those players with high ceilings that you alluded to. He is going to target athletes on the hitting side, and pitching wise he is going to target high "stuff" guys. The problem is that the failure rate for these guys is probably going to be higher than what the Astros have had - and if you have 4-5 busts in a row and the system can be nearly empty. This is reflected in the Astros draft last season - look at the top picks, they all have serious question marks with contact rates, health, command - etc. Hell, his favorite prospect in the system is Melton - who has blistering speed, a strong glove and lots of power - but he also cannot hit for average, is old for his level and has a high chance of turning into a guy like Fisher, who had a similar profile with the Astros.
Depends on how good you think Melton is? It doesn't have to be Melton but you get the idea. If you think the window is closing then it makes sense to do whatever is necessary to create as much room as possible to add to the MLB roster.
Like I said, depends on what you think of Melton as a prospect. I like Baez, Loperfido, Corona and Gomez a lot more than Melton. Although I've only read about these guys and haven't actually seen them play. Anyway they've got pieces to move to create roster flexibility. Since this appear to be the last of the ride they need to make moves to win championships now. Only guys in the org I'm not trading are Baez, Gomez .
I like Browns approach at this stage of the run. Luhnow’s core brought the star power, and developing mid ceiling/mlb caliber players to fill gaps was the play. With that core fading/leaving, mid ceiling players isn’t enough to maintain the juggernaut. And I want me some more juggernaut.
Melton is more likely to be a bust than a regular - but his upside is very high. He is an elite base runner and has a lot of pop, if he hits .250 in the big leagues, he is likely a star.
FA are expensive Young players are controlled for 6 years and typically at peak only 5 of those years. Let's say 10 above average players are needed to seriously contend. That means the team needs to produce 2 per year to maintain. It's not linear though because sometimes the player is further in his career, (like Chas last year) and has fewer years of control remaining. If a season goes by with only 1 or 0 then there needs to be 3 the next season or you are looking at needing to bring in a FA or trade for a star to keep the status quo. If a young player signs an extension giving up 2-4 FA seasons then it reduces that down to 1 for those seasons, reduces the risk and/or strengthens the team's position.
I am on board with trading Framber Valdez if they have other means of getting players to eat innings. Rotation would need to stay healthy until Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia make their comebacks. I made a post the other day about the Rangers making the WS with Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi. It's not that simple, but you get the point. Don't know much about Yariel but that would qualify as a guy who could eat those innings at a discount. Never know how these guys translate to the majors. On Crane, I'm not going to complain whatsoever on his approach this season to avoid tax. The futures of Bregman, Tucker and/or Altuve after this season will signal which direction this team is going and how much Crane is willing to spend. For now, it's a team that might make the ALCS again as it currently stands. Let Dana Brown get another few drafts under his wing and see what happens.
Curious what those other means would be... Doubtful if they can't replace Framber's work load. People should again realize that he's under control for 2 more years. They're trying to contend next year. He's got a lower value now compared to where he was just at the ASB thanks to his not so great second half. They're far better off attempting to contend this year... and then re-assess where they're at next off-season when the true question marks of the future start to arise.
Understandable. I think you're right about it being the last ride. Bregman seems like he's gone and Tucker as well. We really lucked into locking Yordan to that deal
It would be a ****ing shame if after everything we have gone through crane doesn’t do everything possible to improve the team for one last dance. The city, players, fans, and the organization deserve more than some lottery ticket relievers and a backup catcher. Especially if bregman is gonzo after this year.
Are they in the mix because Crane is willing to go over for this guy or in the mix because Brown is still trying to convince Crane that Rodriguez will be worth it?
Crane is willing to spend money to get Rodriguez, it is someone that they have targeted since at least the end of the season. I posted they were serious about him months ago. So yes - Crane will spend money on him, the question is whether Crane is willing to spend more than every other team. It has been the case since day 1. Brown cannot just go out an sign players as he wants - but Crane will spend, and if needed get approval to spend, for the right player and situation. It is why I rolled my eyes with the stores that the Astros will not spend. It is true that the Astros are not going on spending spree, or shopping trip - but if Crane likes a player, he can come up with the money.
My point is that we will have to get even luckier because we don't have high first round picks or first rounders at all for a couple seasons. Brown has to hit homeruna for us to keep this going if Crane doesn't open up the pocketbook. One thing that would change my outlook is Pena learning how to see a slider like Chas did.
It's hard for some people to understand the concept of a budget and a process to ask for and receive approval to go over budget if it is warranted. They want a blank check and no controls whatsoever. In business it's a recipe for bankruptcy.
Completey agreed. In addition to this - with our organization it is clear that the gm executes against ownerships vision. While the GM can plan and strategize- Crane defines what we strike against.
Lofton turned out to be a great player, but I still think the trade reasoning was sound. I would probably do it again right now, but hopefully have better scouting.
