That's not even close to generating the kind of money that they make from the RSN's. There are 750k subs in the Houston area and they pay like $4.00 per household to the RSN- call it $50.00 a year. 10-15% of subs have ever watched a single game on their RSN. In Astros world that's like 110k households. If they offered a standalone service for $150.00 a year the providors would immediately tell the RSN's to **** off- there is no need for their product. LIke- nobody would carry the network as less than 10% of the subs regularly watch that network and they have to kick $4.00 a month for every single sub up to the content creator. In order to make back that $36M that they get from the cable companies and satelite providers at $150 a year they would need.... 240,000 subscribers. We just said that something like 110k households in Houston have ever watched the channel. So, yeah- you aren't going to get 2X paying that you are going to get something like .4 or .5 X willing to pay that. It would be absolute carnage and a financial bloodbath for them to do that. Unless you think the providers are going to continue to pay $40M a year for your channel when there is a viable stand alone option for the 5% of their base that actually would care enough to pay for it as a stand alone service (hint- they won't).
Yup... Bottom line is the people that WEREN'T watching games but had cable subscriptions that included the RSNs are what made that industry a massive success and provided the revenues for these teams that are now evaporating. You won't get anywhere near enough streamers to cover the lost revenue from cord cutters. The fan base isn't that big.
Adding a hypothetical Framber trade, since Atlanta is known to be involved in Cease talks and we know Dana Brown knows their farm system really well, so if Cease ends up elsewhere Atlanta may pivot to Framber. Altanta’s move to acquire David Fletcher could be a precursor to using Grissom in a trade for a ToR SP; as it stands their depth chart doesn’t have much room for Grissom. Braves get: SP Framber Valdez Astros get: SS Vaughn Grissom P AJ Smith-Shawyer P Spencer Schwellenbach Astros get Grissom, who can contribute in LF this year before taking over for Bregman next year; they add 2 very high ceiling pitching prospects who likely become their 2 best prospects overall. Astros also free up $12M they can use on free agent pitching. A quintet of Smith-Shawyer, Hunter Brown, Javier, Arrighetti, and France gives Houston an excellent long term rotation outlook. Braves get 2 years of an ace.
Yep. Sports is the most important thing that providers have. It's also not near important enough to justify what they were paying on any ala carte basis. basically you need the aggregate of all sports fans together to even come close to justify that pricing if you were going to offer a program that was something like "sports streaming" but even that doesn't work without being a free rider for the 75% of households that don't watch sports. It's pretty fascinating ****. I think it's going to go back to bundling by the way and the bleeding of subs is going to stop. I've been shouting from the mountaintops for 15 years that separating the bundle is going to be BAD for the customer and you are starting to see it now with the ubiquity of streamers existing and people b****ing about how split up the content is and all the streamers raising their fees. People are going to say "you know what's cool- if I could get all the content I need in one place- I will even pay a good bit for that- but not as much as I would pay all of them individually. Maybe all like minded people like myself could band together and it would make sense for the content providers and distribution people." These things run in cycles.
Upon further review, I think maybe "the window" may not be as close to closing as we thought. Depending on your definition, of course. Looking at hitting first because wRC+ and OPS+ are very convenient metrics and pitching requires much more research. I chose wRC+ because fangraphs is easy to filter by day/week/month. I chose just looking at August 1st- end of season to try and get an idea of how goodvthe teams hitting was heading into the post season. I chose this due to the trade deadline. It was best way to reasonably determine who was on the team without too much research on individual seasons or details. I think we will all agree that league average hitters are not impactful and easier to get/have than above average hitters. Having them is better than having below average hitters, but it's the big bats that make a team a contender. From 2015-2023 every Astro team had at least 5 hitters with 110 or better wRC+ from 8/1- end of season. It's reasonable to project this as the minimum need for a team to compete. 2026 has Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick should qualify. Also there is an exceptionally good chance that Jose Altuve is on that team and even regression due to age will probably keep his wRC+ above 110. That means the team most likely needs to add 1 impact bat through development, trade, or FA to have an offense worthy of continued contention. FTR here are the numbers per season: 2015 = 8 2016 = 5 2017= 6 2018 = 6 2019 = 7 2020 = 5 2021 = 7 2022 = 5 2023 = 8
If Houston does trade Framber, my list of reasonable free agent replacements and the max I’d offer: Lucas Giolito: $70M/4yrs, backloaded, opt out after 1st and 2nd years Yariel Rodriguez: $70M/6yrs Sean Manaea: $30M/2yrs, backloaded w opt out after 1st year James Paxton: $18M/2yrs w/ip incentives for addl $6M Frankie Montas: $18M/2yrs, backloaded w/opt out after 1st year
That's the problem with trading Framber If we did trade him, it would be because Crane ordered Brown to get under the tax, so spending more money on a replacement wouldn't happen
As you said I guess it depends on what you consider the window being opened is With the amount of high end talent that will be here for several more years, if you have a GM who is good at finding solid mlb roster fillers and can continually build good bullpens, you will "be in the playoff race" for several more years. Your chances of winning it all any of those years would be extremely low though. Sort of like the Angels have been...with Trout, Ohtani, Rendon coming into new seasons, they were always a team that many thought "had a chance"...but they never did
Exactly. Sounds just like my rational to get a new car . . . if i sold the old one, got some better mpg, and put a little down, I'll be able to get a new car and not change my payments. WRONG. everytime. but I wanted one . . . so.
Yes. It takes much more than talent to win but it looks like talent is all that is being lost. The culture the experience etc will still be here and the Angels never had that. This team will lose a ton of talent in the next 2 years but the cabinet won't be totally dry. There should be enough talent left (and plenty of payroll space) to form a good foundation requiring just a couple of good replacements. 2026: Alvarez, Diaz, McCormick, Javier, Brown, France, B Abreu, Garcia and McCullers (depending on health) along w/ possibly Altuve is a great start. Of course the more players come in and excel the better the chances are.
Here's the flip side to that- if you don't develop anyone else- and Crane wants to sell in 2026 you have the following as assets: Comp pick for Tucker Comp pick for Valdez Alvarez- 3/75- I think that dude would be worth something like a top 10 prospect, another top 50 prospect and a fringe top 100 prospect. If you paid down some of his money you could probably get like 4 top 100 types- Kings ransom Diaz- 3 years at arb pricing- that's worth 3 top 100 prospects if he's a 5 WAR catcher making baseball minimum wage Mccormick- Last year of arbitration. Maybe worth a fringe top 100 type Javier- 2 years 40 million left- If he's doing well and the Astros pay 1/2 his salary (and why not- we are talking about having a fire sale) that's 2 top 100 prospects Brown- 3 years of arbitration left- he's going to be worth (if not injured) somewhere between a kings ransom and a top 50 type prospect- depending upon his development B Abreu- 1 year of arbitration left- he will be a closer by then and a great one I bet- call it 2/3 of the Hader package Garcia- 1 year of arbitration left- depending upon development somewhere between a top 50 type prospect and a couple interesting prospects McCullers- 1 year- 17M left. If he's healthy he will be worth a couple fringe prospects- if not whatever. So- call it 50M going out in Alvarez and Javier deals and the Astros could have something like 10 or 12 top 100 prospects and 20 total interesting prospects coming back from a fire sale. Figure that means we suck in 26 and 27 and pick really high those 2 years and be really well set up in 28. So- maybe worst case scenario with that talent if you don't think you are a real contender you close that window and yank another one wide open in 28. All this assumes reasonable health and development for those guys you mentioned on the big league staff and crappy development and drafting in the minors. If the minors drafting and development is good then it supplements what's a pretty decent core still in 26.
Odds of winning a World Series tops out at a little more than 20% for the best team in a given year. The sum of the Angels World Series Odds on FanGraphs for opening days the past 10 years is 25.5% (or about 2.55% in an average year). The Astros roughly have about as much talent under contract/control for 2026 as a typical Angels year (granted it is spread out into more players than just 2) with likely >$100M of spending room for 2026. I'd guess the WS Champ opening day odds in 2026 for the Astros will be much higher than a typical Angels year (and any in the Ohtani-Trout era) as they will use their money to bolster the roster.
Interesting concept. I am actually getting very excited to watch what the Astros do. I have watched a fall in the late 80s result in a vast rebuild in the early 90s and an even more extreme rebuild in the mid 2010s after a similar fall from competitiveness. Now I can appreciate it even more. I do hope its short though lol.
I don’t think we are trading Framber…. Unless it’s a crazy package you can’t say no to or Astros are out of the race and we start unloading Bregman, Framber, Verlander to contenders for prospects.
Might be worth reviewing how the 2017 team was built and who the farm had at that time, as a way to judge what is really needed to start a run. McCann was acquired using a couple of pitching prospects in the Org Top 10-30 range. Gurriel, Reddick, and Morton were free agent signings. Altuve was a non-prospect who wildly exceeded expectations. He is a borderline hall of fame player whose career has reflected what might be expected of an MLB Top 10 prospect. Correa was a #1 overall pick and MLB Top 5 prospect when he debuted; his career has been pretty consistent with that pedigree. Bregman was a #2 overall pick and MLB Top 5 prospect when he debuted; his career has been pretty consistent with that pedigree. Springer was a mid-1st round pick who was a consensus MLB Top 100 prospect who moderately exceeded that pedigree. Marwin was a Rule 5 pick who significantly exceeded expectations. Marisnick was acquired in an odd prospects-for-prospects trade involving Jarred Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Wates, Colin Moran, Frances Martes, and a draft pick (that became Daz Cameron). Boiling his cost down is difficult. McCullers was a late 1st round pick (who got mid-1st round bonus) who was a consensus MLB Top 100 prospect and has performed in line with that pedigree. Keuchel was an overachieving mid-round draft pick. Peacock, McHugh, Devenski, Harris, and Musgrove were acquired for peanuts and all overachieved. Verlander was acquired using 1 MLB Top 100 prospect (Perez) and 2 Org Top 10 prospects (Cameron and Rogers). Giles was acquired using 2 MLB Top 100 prospects (Appel and Velasquez) and 2 Org top 20 prospects (Oberholtzer and Eshelman). Their farm going into 2017 included the following notable prospects: Big hype guys: Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley Moderate hype guys: AJ Reed, Jonathan Singleton, David Paulino, Yordan Alvarez, JB Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, Gilberto Celestino, JD Davis, Cionel Perez Big bonus busts: Ronnie Dawson, JJ Matijevic, Miguelangel Sierra, Joe Perez, Freudis Nova, Angel Macuare, Elian Rodriguez Overachievers: Framber Valdez, Myles Straw, Josh Rojas, Corey Julks, Brandon Bielak, Cristian Javier, Jorge Alcala, Abraham Toro, Enmanuel Valdez, Jake Meyers, Bryan Abreu, Wilyer Abreu, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Jason Martin im not sure what to draw from that. I think it’s notable that the core of the team was built with 3 top 15 picks (Correa, Bregman, Springer) plus another guy who played like a top 5 pick (Altuve). It’s also notable they had Tucker and Alvarez in their farm along with a wild amount of future top notch pitching (Framber, Javier, Garcia, Abreu). It’s also worth noting how many top prospects Houston rifled thru during the rebuild before settling on their core. DeShields, Villar, and others busted along the way. I’d make a ballpark estimate that the proper start of a run would require 4 prospects ranked in MLB Top 50, another 8 ranked in the MLB 50-100 range, a healthy number of supplemental high ceiling guys of the Org Top 10 ilk, and the ability to field a Top 10 payroll.
The problem is that the team is not starting from 0. Therefore players like Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown who have 5 years of control left must he accounted for. In a 30 team league, any team that has 12 top 100 prospects is LOADED. I would expect 8-9 is much more likely to be feasible. The vaunted Orioles system currently only has 6, though they are all Top 50. I would say 3-5 prearb 3+ WAR players (hopefully a 5 WAR guy or 2 in there) and 8-9 Top 100 prospects is a great start.
RE: Valdez trade rumors I've read a lot of chatter from the forum and for me it's kind of a simple take. The Rangers won the WS with Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery leading the way as SP's. If the Astros don't feel like they can sign Valdez, then trade him before ST starts. They can survive through the month of July-August until McCullers and Garcia come back. JV is healthy with Javier, Brown, Urquidy, etc. The team can win the ALDS again (5 game set with JV probably getting 2 starts) and it's the team that gets hot who advances most times.
Of course it's not that simple but you are not wrong. It is perfectly feasible that Verlander, Javier, Brown, France, Urquidy, and the AAA elevator starters can lead the Astros to the post season. However it's much more likely that Verlander, Framber, Javier, Brown, France and Urquidy do it. Then healthy McCullers and Garcia add more quality arms for the playoffs. I am not opposed to trading him, as I think the Astros have plenty of depth. But they have to be lucky with injuries and have much less margin for bad luck/performance without him.
But there’s a key difference, when Houston started their rebuild in earnest in 2011, they had almost no big league trade chips outside of Pence and Bourn, and maybe Bud Norris, but none of those guys were traded for anyone who ended up contributing in 2017. Altuve was the only big league ready long term piece. Their farm was pretty barren outside of Jason Castro and Dallas Keuchel. Between 2012 and 2015 (3 seasons) they drafted Correa, Bregman, Springer, Marwin, McCullers, and acquired all the prospects used to trade for McCann, Verlander, and Giles. So let’s say Diaz is the modern day Altuve and Brown is the modern day Keuchel. And let’s assume with a clear payroll they’d have money to sign free agents equivalent to Gurriel, Reddick, Beltran, and Morton. I also think it’s safe to assume the current farm system can supply prospect to trade for complementary players (like Peacock, Devenski, and McCann) and provide a steady supply of bench players and middle relievers. Let’s shoot for just 2 years (2026 and 2027) of sucking, with 2028 being the equivalent to 2015 (when the Astros were finally worth watching again). Let’s assume they want to try to win the next 2 years and can field their current payroll during that time. So the 2024-2027 drafts plus their current trade chips would have to supply (either directly or via trade) the equivalent of Correa, Bregman, Springer, Marwin, Verlander, McCullers, Giles, and McHugh. That’s 4 drafts of 1st and 2nd round picks with several extra 2nd round comp picks, 4 international signing periods, and trade chips including Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Dubon, Javier, Urquidy, and B Abreu.
