Damn I wish I had the fire in my belly to talk sh*t with yall about the economy. Calling people DONKS? Yoo I'll just do my part and cheer y'all on from the sidelines
as it relates to economics, Invisible Fan has been cutting n pasting from articles, but in a disjointly way. there would be articcles critical of the current fiscal polcies and Fed monetary policies, in many of Invisible's posts, he'd parrot these criticism interchangeably, not understanding the difference. i'd often point it out to him that they are not the same, such as post #300 on page 15 of this thread ============================================================================================= just so that you understand Government spending refers to fiscal policies, spending bills passed by the Congress, which are separate and distinct from monetary policies their impact on the money supply in circulation is negligible eg of fiscal policies include tax rate changes, infrastucture bills, tax rebates, Gov bail outs, and others the Fed has nothing to do w fiscal policies.. when discussing the US economy, "tool box" refers to the monetary policies implemented by the Fed. They are not fiscal policies. these monetary tools, when implemented, have a direct / immediate impact the the money supply in circulation. eg of monetary policies include raising or cutting the discount rate, buying marketable securities to expand money supply in circulation, selling marketable securities to contract money supply in circulation Congress and the white house have nothing to do with monetary policies Fed will testify on the its “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” The Federal Reserve is mandated to present reports to Congress twice a year. hope this helps you to realize how ill-informed that phrase "a toolbox of even deeper Govt spending " is.
Hes been claiming for months how the economy was due for some massive recession and how the debt is going destroy us. It just blows my mind how these folks who have never been right about a damn thing come online and lecture others on what will happen
one more observation of Invsiible Fan's parroted criticisms which end up contrdicting one another. Invisible Fan would often cut n paste criticisms of QE, printing $ out of thin air. further down the road, he then posted criticisms of the Fed reducing its balance sheet, quantitatie tightening, when it was intending to counter the effect of QE, post #241 on page 13 of this thread criticism on QE criticism on the Fed's move to counter the effect of QE because he doesn'tunderstand that "Fed reducing its balance sheet" is the opposite of QE, Invisible Fan ends up criticizing both,
That wasn't really a joke American-first is Biden's policy, and he's been much more effective at it than Trump. Trump started it but did it in a poorly executed way. Biden effectively ran with it, implementing the IRA, Infrastructure, and Chip acts. Yes, it's a shocker to some, but he's also coordinating with regional partners surrounding China. American-first doesn't necessarily mean American-only, which was what the last administration tried to do but failed even at that. American-first means doing things for America and partnering with regional powers to put America in the optimal position to succeed. The long-term impact, especially with the Chip acts, of what Biden has done here will be felt for decades. I give the Biden administration major credit here, striking at the right time and getting a reluctant Congress to act for the benefit of Americans. It hasn't been at least a year. The yo-yo effect, from constrained supply (including labor) against huge demand (inflationary pressure) to much less constrained supply against weaker demand, is settling down and leading to an almost normal overall situation. However, some sectors are still working through this yo-yo effect and may never return to pre-pandemic levels due to ongoing shifts, such as diversifying from China and labor unions gaining strength. I believe we are almost at a new normal, one that won't be static but much more stable. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-07-13/global-supply-chains-are-almost-back-to-normal July 13, 2023 A fresh tranche of trade data shows that the historic series of supply shocks rattling the global economy for three years has subsided, boosting expectations for cooler inflation in the months ahead. The improvement in global supply chains is “resonating through almost every indicator,” HSBC said in a research note earlier this week. Delivery times are falling, port congestion is close to normal, product shortages are receding and global inventory levels are rebalancing. “Over the course of the past year, but in particular in 2023, global supply chains have eased remarkably quickly — removing one of the biggest headaches in terms of activity and inflation,” the London-based bank said, while noting that the trend is largely the result of subdued global demand for goods. Over my head so no comments What happens when the economy turns south—just like usual, recession sucks. AI and its new economy have always been a potential major shock to the system. I don't think anyone knows what will happen with that shock. But we are already seeing labor forces trying to protect themselves (see Hollywood recently). Expect more of that.
Groceries are up 19% since 2020 which obviously sucks but countries in Europe are seeing close to 35% increases and even japan/china/Korea saw massive inflation to Groceries post Russian invasion. Why do you losers try painting this as if it's some American issue. Every country in the world had inflation but we had the strongest job market and fastest recovery anywhere in the world. You can't cope with facts
Biden’s 2024 Problem: Voters Say His Policies Hurt Them A recent Wall Street Journal poll finds Americans feel far more positive about former President Donald Trump’s record than they do about President Biden’s https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/joe-biden-poll-donald-trump-73cfa7d9?mod=hp_lead_pos4 excerpt: WASHINGTON—Robert Gilbert is fed up with high prices for groceries and other necessities, and he has giving up hope that President Biden can help. “I don’t think he has really done much for us, nothing that benefits me really,” said Gilbert, 65 years old, a retiree living on a fixed income in Fenton, Mo. He voted for Biden in 2020, but doesn’t think he will support him again. Gilbert isn’t a fan of Donald Trump either, but he felt that the economy was better when Trump was in office. “I think Trump did a pretty good job if he shut his mouth,” said Gilbert, who is considering voting for a third-party candidate next year. More than half the country now thinks Biden’s policies have done them harm and nearly as many voters think Trump’s policies helped them, a foreboding sign for the incumbent heading into a likely rematch with his 2020 foe. For Biden, the finding in a recent Wall Street Journal poll offers a stark explanation of why support from those who helped put him in office is waning. It also illustrates why Democrats are increasingly worried about his prospects, even against an unpopular Republican opponent with whom Biden hopes to draw a contrast. Voters across the political spectrum single out inflation and high prices as a chief complaint about Biden’s presidency, but some also are upset with his broader record on domestic and foreign policy. Many voters couldn’t cite specific Biden administration policies they disliked, but instead channeled a pervasive malaise in the country that they said was difficult to pin down. Several said they were considering supporting an alternative to either party’s front-runner or not voting at all. In interviews with voters, what’s striking is that the frustration is coming from all sides of the coalition that put Biden in the White House. Liberal voters are angry about Biden’s approach to Israel’s war in Gaza, and complain that he hasn’t done enough to enact the progressive policies he laid out during the 2020 campaign, including large-scale student loan forgiveness. Centrist voters want him to do more to secure the border, while left-leaning voters think his immigration policies have moved too far to the right. Among Democrats and independents who lean that way, 45% say Biden’s policies hurt them personally or had no impact on them, according to the Journal poll. Among voters overall, 53% of voters said Biden’s policies hurt them, and less than a quarter—23%— said they were helped by his policies. Some 49% of voters said Trump’s policies personally helped them, while just 37% said they hurt them. more
Look at this clown. What happened to your 100+ page hunter biden thread in which you swore to us biden was complicit in? You were claiming Joe biden would be caught any day now. What happened donk?
Similarly... back in Sept 2023: In the poll published Thursday, around 47 percent of Americans said they trust Trump more to improve the economy, compared to 36 percent who said they have greater trust in Biden. Nearly 14 percent said they were undecided, while about 3 percent refused to answer. Meanwhile, nearly 70 percent of Americans said they feel the economy is getting worse, while around 22 percent said it is improving. Nearly 8 percent were undecided on the issue. A CNN poll released last week found 58 percent of U.S. adults surveyed believe Biden’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country, compared to 24 percent who thought his policies improved economic conditions. There is still a persistent disconnect that is specific to Americans (which is pretty amazing to witness and is hard to explain, though I have my guesses), but it might be closing as the Fed is set to reduce rates next year due to inflation continuing to abate. The actual spending pattern also tells a different story. Link It seems US consumer sentiment is becoming the latest victim of expressive responding, where people give incorrect answers to questions to signal wider tribal political or social affiliations. My advice: if you want to know what Americans really think of economic conditions, look at their spending patterns. Unlike cautious Europeans, US consumers are back on the pre-pandemic trendline and buying more stuff than ever.
You keep making this weird claim that i have some obsession with biden but my only obsession is laughing at donkeys and morons who swore they were right. Biden has made my business almost 6x in value and im going to sell it in the spring for a good 7 figure number bcz of bidens expanded subsidies. If republicans werent so effin crazy and had a rational candidate I would seriously look into voting for them. I dont agree with biden on anything culture wars related. @Os Trigonum posted conspiracy after conspiracy swearing that one of them would be correct and how the smoking gun would be released. How can you not laugh at such a donkey when they were so utterly wrong. As a society we should laugh at people more for being wrong.
Under senile joe Biden, inflation is down and the SP500 is up 23% year to date. Imagine that. In the face of global unrest, predictions of recession, and “no way there is a soft landing”, investors made a crap ton of money by just sticking $$ into a freaking index fund. And somehow, risk free CD rates were over 5%. Good returns for you, and you, and you, and you. Biden’s puppeteers are geniuses. Perhaps we can elect them again.
The past year we had a fed funds rate of over 5% and the nasdaq went up by over 40% and gdp grew by over 3% over this past year. Next year the fed fund rate will be around 3% and this economy will be on fire. Everyone is going to get rich over the next few years if you know how to place your money. This economy is about to hit its strides and you will make a **** ton of money as long as youre in the market. The party is just getting started.
it is too bad that ur so ill-informed that you don't know about Nobel Prize Winners, Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman, and their textbooks on Macroeconomics / Money & Banking. their scholarly research peojects, have led to currencies pegging to the US dollar, the world's de facto reserve currency, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/061015/top-exchange-rates-pegged-us-dollar.asp
Reaganomics is dead. Long live Bidenomics. Even David Stockman, the OMB Director for Reagan admits that "trickle-down" economics failed, https://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-us-is-in-race-to-the-fiscal-bottom-2010-10
This is yet another example of the growing gap between fact/reality and perception in America. It's truly alarming and unhealthy for the nation as a whole to be so divorced from reality.
I can't stand all these people running around wearing biden hats, Biden shirts, Biden flags on their jeeps, and Biden yeti cups everywhere!
@adoo I don't like debating you. You act like I lost you money or kicked your dog. I can be wrong but spending time on an anal retentive prick is not worth any payoff even if I were right, which you would never admit. You prob cream with every smug eyeroll. Keep bringing up receipts to things you never bought. You do it so much, I sandbag your lazy trick of berating others to do work for you, then see how you magically become J Powell's research gimp overnight with every breadcrumb. The Fed has lost more than 100B this year, which is the first time in their history. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. The Fed captures its losses in what it calls a deferred asset, an accounting measure that tallies what it will eventually have to cover in the future before it can return to its normal practice of returning its profits to the Treasury. Losing money is very rare for the Fed. But at the same time, the central bank has cautioned many times that the situation in no way impairs its ability to conduct monetary policy and to achieve its goals. In that dumb debate chain, you didn't even know how the Fed used the deferred asset until I brought it up. Now you're an expert because you looked up the definition on an normal accounting website and pretended like the Fed is a normal accounting body with normal accounting rules. It wasn't even a term pre-defined by the Fed because they never lost money in its entire existence. The Treasury still has to account for that loss, and Congress, which is normally used to extra funding that the Fed pumps in with profits has to deal with that budgetary shortfall (from 70-120B to 0). You know all this as we've gone through this before, but you're going on all Sheldon Cooper with petty gotchas that no one gives a **** about. You didn't even know what near zero interest rate policy meant to the point where you got called out by someone else for being an insufferable prick only to become an expert on it to gloat and hold receipts for it. Well guess wut, **** happened months later in March 2020 that forced the Fed to do ZIRP and buy a whole lotta ****. I don't like gloating over good bad-calls. I normally don't like gloating over good good-calls. I wouldn't even remember your all-too-common fly-like pestering if you didn't keep bringing up how the "balance sheets would be wrecked" from years ago that nudged me to reread that over new information I would potentially learn/think about in a good debate. BTW, I like how you latch onto words I wrote before It's cute, but you should really use your own words or at least quotes to be ironic. I mean bottle half empty or behoove makes you sound like a DONK who microwaves fish at the office, but those are your own words. Own them.
