If you trade Framber then the best remaining SP on the team might be Hunter Brown. JV took a step back last season and very well may take another this season. Javier flat out sucked for large chunks of last season. France is most likely a JAG 1-2 WAR guy. Who knows what you’re going to get from Lance or Garcia in ‘24. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success, especially when poor pitching nagged the Astros last year and was ultimately their undoing in the post-season.
I think that is worst case scenario but you are not wrong. There is no way to trade Framber, Bregman, or Tucker without it diminishing the chances to win in 2024. But that may be dropping them from 20% to 10% or from 20% to 18%. There is no way the Astros have a better than 20% chance right now and there is no way any deal reduces their chances more than a 10%. But that same deal could reduce 2024 from 20% to 18% but raise 2025 from 10% to 15%, then the next 3 years from 5% to 10%. Would you rather have: 20%, 10%, 5%, 5%, 5% Or 18%, 15%, 10%, 10%, 10% ?
I would guess that in trading Framber the drop in cWPA on a year-to-year basis would be greater for '24 and '25 than would a potential year-by-year increase in cWPA for '26 and beyond. The costs in trading him are much less speculative than the potential gains which would likely be contingent on the Astros hitting on whatever players they obtained (which is much more speculative imo than Framber's ability to contribute at a high level in '24 and '25). I think this kind of trade could make sense if the Astros were trading from a position of strength where the trade would hurt some but the affected position group is still in good shape, but that's not the case right now until and unless several things happen this season like Javier demonstrating that he can be effective across 150+ IP, LMJ and Garcia looking like their old selves upon their return, etc. Instead, you could be turning a potential position of weakness (at least one of significant uncertainty as of today) into a blackhole.
This. Any speculative trade involving Framber that helps the Astros depends on the other team making a big mistake. If the expected total value on both sides of the deal are close assuming a normal premium for wins sooner over wins later, trading wins from 24-25 to get wins in 26 and later will cost championship odds.
Looks to me w hope to avoid injuries. And roll w JV, Framber and Javier. With Altuve and Yordan this team rocks. If JV, Framber and Javier are rolling then we trot out a badass squad to go deep in the playoffs. Tucker, Bregman, Diaz, Abreu, McCormick can get dialed in help us mash too. Agree?
I just don't think losing any player makes that much different in odds. First of all what are the odds now? I'm thinking 20% is the best case. If Framber suddenly was lost for the year how much do they drop? Certainly no more than 5% 10% would surprise me. When Max Scherzer and Trea Turner were traded to the Dodgers, their WS odds went from 20.2% to 21.1% When the Padres traded for Juan Soto their odds went from 4 3% to 9.1% When Robbie Ray was lost for the season with TJS last year the Mariners odds went from 1.2% to 0.9% (fangraphs) No way trading any Astros player makes that much difference.
Marginally reducing the chance in 2024? We are World Series contenders now. You don't reduce those chances, especially with someone who is under team control, is all-star level, and eats the amount of innings Framber does.
I doubt the Astros are sellers unless they falter and are way down in the standings by the trading deadline. And this likely would be due to injuries… The Astros are going to have an all star level catcher, hopefully a reinvigorated Peña after a sophomore slump, a health Abreu at 1st base. Of course we have Astro all star level players in Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker. And we will see what McKormick and Myers do as starters or if they need to be upgraded during the season. So Astros should be plenty good to be amongst the elite teams this season. pitching wise, Verlander, Framber, Javier, Hunter, McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy should form a solid 7 man rotation. I personally think that Framber wore down with the heavy innings during the season. I hope the Astros can utilize a 6 man rotation and rest guys especially the ones carrying the weight of the innings.
You are completely right. Nobody does it and it won't happen here either. That doesn't mean it's not the best move but that is completely debatable
Problem is one team is a legit contender and the other is far from it If you trade Framber to get under the tax, might as well trade Alex and Kyle too, cause without spending any money we ain’t replacing those Framber innings
I seriously doubt we are trading Framber But if we did it wouldn’t have anything to do with Dana’s panties, it would have everything to do with Jim’s checkbook
Could agree with the general principle of this But you ain’t getting a Framber for 12.5 million Clutchfans GREATLY under estimates how much value Framber brings
Quickest way to fix the farm, yes Also the quickest way to go from front runner in the AL to a team that “should have a chance if things break well”
Probably could Hell no they shouldn’t If you are trying to win it all you don’t trade an Ace for a back end rotation starter and a backup infielder Just no
Lol I like most of your posts But it’s totally impossible to put percentage chances to win it all in 3 or 4 years It’s baseball If you think you have a chance to win it all now, that’s your priority. Period And all this talk is crazy anyway. If we move Framber it’s not because Dana thinks it improves our chances in 2026, it’s because Jim told him to get under the tax Crane has never spent money on the tax
Giants are looking too deal young and controllable starters if the Astros could land Tristan Beck, one of Harrison or Whisenhunt and another arm I’d entertain it. Of course I want the Astros too sign another starter like Yasiel Rodriguez
Wait - trading an all-star or cy-young player reduces the Astros' chances from 20% to 18%, but adding some potential future prospect adds 5% to their chances?
The Astros aren’t moving anyone good - they want to maximize the window. Also be weary of teams WANTING to trade away young pitching - that’s a red flag.
I just threw percentages out there. It's all guess work. But the future chances are due to 3 players who would be better than those currently in the system to replace guys as they move on. But you are right those 3 alone probably only improve the team 2-3%. FWIW I don't want Framber gone. I think he's a top 5 pitcher in this league and will be a top 5 CY finisher each of the next 2 years. What I want is the Astros to extend all 3 of the guys we are talking about. If that can't happen then I want the team to have the depth of talent to continue competing in 2024, 2025, 2026, and after.
