Again.... Green has been disappointing but it's just not logical to trade him now keeping with the context of this thread. We are using a 20 game sample size to make decisions on a player and claiming he's not progressing at all? That's just dumb.
This. It's the pro KPJ folks that are mostly leading the charge on trading him and it's clearly an emotional decision. Just madness and stupidity to trade him now.
So in the formula to calculate an individual players win share number there is an input that asks explicitly how many wins the team has that the player plays on? No? Didn’t think so.
Only using a 163 game sample just isn't fair, gotta wait till he's played at least 500. For the record, he shouldn't be traded unless there's a team out there dumb enough to offer something of value for him... he should be benched if he doesn't improve. There's no reason to harm the development of players who deserve those minutes more.
that’a good but still there is a component in the calculation that says team’s points per win, which seems impossible to be calculated without the number of wins. The part you quoted seems to be said to point out that the wins shares won’t exactly add to team wins exactly, unlike baseball.
I believe that the “marginal team points per win” referenced in the stats calculation is a league wide stat not based on the individual team.
I think we're just arguing semantics at this point. I think we can both agree that much of the advanced statistical improvement can be attributed to him playing on a better team, particularly on the defensive end. Any improvement or decline on the offensive side of the ball is neglibigle and even the slight bumps or drops in things like TS%, AST% or TO% are incredibly minor. I do think there's been legitimate improvement on the defensive side of the ball, and I want to give Jalen at least some credit for that as well as on the glass. I'm not sure you can really look at these numbers, though, and truly say he's "regressed," which I believe you originally said. At the very least, he's at least plateaued statistically. I also don't think a 20-game sample size with a new coach and a new roster is enough to fully say whether he's made any improvement or he's declined. But (as per my original post in this thread), it's definitely enough to start showing some frustrating and questioning whether he's going to figure it out or not. Let's revisit this closer to the halfway mark. Gun to my head, I really don't think Jalen is going to suddenly figure it out and give us the third-year leap in production many of us were hoping for. And if that's the case, I think at some point this season, Ime's going to have to make some difficult decisions on how much and in what role he wants to play Jalen.
I think Jalen is struggling this year for couple reason. Number 1 I think is a mental aspect. He was never coached as hard as Ime is coaching him and it must have shaken his confidence. He looks way more tentative this year to me. I saw e.g. couple times in last Denver game that Jalen gets ball on the perimeter, because of the switch is guarded by Joker, and instead of running around him to the rim he does not know what to do and ultimately gives up the ball. I do not blame Ime, it is kind of on Jalen to respond, but number of times I see Jalen being lectured by Ime during games is pretty ridiculous, maybe he could just let him play a little. Number 2, the regression (or at least lack of progress) in shooting percentage. I think Jalen, like James, is a rhythm player. They need touches to get going. Jalen is taking less shots, but I do not feel it is because he improved his shot selection, it is just he is much less involved. And when he finally gets the ball, he seem sometimes to feels obliged to get something and either jacks up not a great look or drives headlessly into traffic. Rare are moments when he starts cooking, feeling the game and is making controlled plays either for himself or for others. It feels to me like there is less variety in his game he became too predictable. I hope with time Ime will be able to reach Jalen and unlock his potential, so I would not trade him this year, especially since we are not getting much in return. But anyone that hoped Ime is going to turn Jalen into efficient spot up shooter, well it is never going to happen.
Maybe he might just need a chance to play more with the second unit where he can just take as many shots as he needs to get his rhythm.
I think alot about Barbosa's really important role on MDA's Sun's team, and people forget the guy was like an 18 PPG scorer on a contending team a few years. I think Jalen is much more talented than Barbosa, but it gives you a sense for what a player like Jalen could be in the right situation... even where he's at now from a skillset... which I think he's going to improve from IMO. Might take another year or two but he'll at least make some modest improvements which will go along ways.
I have resigned to the fact that Jalen will never be a great shooter. If he can be an average shooter, he can still be a good scorer with his speed and athleticism. At this point, he is a below average shooter.
Yeah I want to be clear I’m not bullish on Jalen, but I’m also not suggesting they run out and trade him immediately for whatever they can get. Having said that, I’d absolutely listen to anyone who wanted to talk about trading for him. Imo, he’s not some untouchable piece of a franchise.
Listening to offers is doing your due diligence but I can’t imagine there’s many worthwhile offers. Im not very bullish on Green being all nba or a top 5 SG but there’s plenty of outcomes between that and bust that are advantageous for the rockets.
Possible but unlikely in my opinion, because I think in that case I think total winshares would deviate more from actual wins. It seems that (cannot find the detailed methodology online) you are correct that they are not using the actual number of wins. However, I think they are using an estimate of the number of wins from point scored, conceded, variance of them etc. (there is a formula in the book 'basketball on paper'). The idea is probably to get a theoretical number of wins, reducing the role of chance that contributes to winning records. Although this number is not the actual number of wins, it is highly correlated. So, while the actual number of wins is not used, for all practical purposes you can think about the actual number of wins is used.
I’m pretty vocal about my frustrations with him, so just wanted to make clear my position on trading him!
Some sort of wins estimate has to be the basis. But my argument has always been that the winshare stat couldn’t work the way that it does if a teams actual wins were a direct variable of the equation because players can accumulate positive win shares in games they lose. The first two games of Hardens last season here we lost, but Harden had some stupid like 40/5/12 stat line average in those two losses. At that point of the season winshares/48 had Harden as #1 overall in the league even though the team he played for was winless.
