Jalen Green is basically an 80% FT shooter this year. It feels unfair to criticize on that basis. His TS% is also a little up from last season, and his defensive rating is way day (110 v. 122 last season). In general though, I don’t disagree that his lack of developing a better 3 ball is discouraging.
I agree 79-80% isn't bad. But I guess my main point is that there are things a player can improve on regardless on who's coaching. I think the defensive effort this year by Green can be attributed to better coach. But something like jump shooting is improved in the off season, I just don't understand why he seems to stagnate in both mid range and 3 pointers.
Well, lets look at those numbers too ... but let's be honest here, most of those have a lot to do with who you share the court with and they really don't show the improvement you claim (on the offensive end). You don't get win shares if your team doesn't win games. BPM is dramatically affected by the other players on the court. Starting with BPM: BPM he's a career high -1 but breaking that down: He's a career Low in OBPM at -0.6. DBPM is a career best -0.3 improved from the -2.5 he averaged the first two seasons. Better but still Bad. PER = his Per has taken a step back from last season down from 14.5 to 13.2. Win Shares - His Offensive Win shares are -0.2, down from 1.4. That -0.2 is a career low. Defensive win shares have improved from 0.5 to 1. VORP increased from 0 to 0.2. Turnover percentage has increased from 11.3 to 12.1. Assist percentage has declined from 17.3 to 14.8. Rebound numbers have improved on the defensive end. EFG% down from .494 to .488 3pt% down from .340 to .336 FG% down from .420 to .419 TS% at .543 this year compared to .542 career. (these are all really right in the ballpark of his career averages - separated by thousandths of a point, one game can swing them one way or the other) For a guy who's supposed to be a volume scorer, his offensive statistics and advanced metrics all paint a different picture and really haven't "improved".
Here for my annual reminder on win shares. The calculation of win shares is NOT dependent on team wins. Keldon Johnson on the 3-19 Spurs has better win share numbers than Green and Brooks on our team with a far superior record.
Again, I think you're assuming his situation is exactly the same as other rookies who are on bad teams. In reality it was the worst development environment ever. So whatever you think is possible elsewhere, it wasn't really with us. All the young players stalled, it wasn't a Jalen-centric issue. His jumpshot is bad because we gave him the keys to turn it into a deeper habit. He can work all he wants in the offseason, if a HS'er is given 20 shots to do whatever he wants in that environment, the results will be bad. He can't fix everything on his own. He's improved his strength, defense and passing. How much can a player improve in one offseason and 20 games with Udoka? If I had told you before the season that by game 20 Green will have improved only his strength, defense and passing would you then start nitpicking about the fact that he hasn't also improved his scoring within 20 games? He'll be fine. Always starts the season slow then improves. People get down around this time. This is going to be the 3rd time in a row we go through this cycle.
At what point do the excuses run out? Will we be hearing about how we need to wait for the 8th year leap?
The best bet still will be to hold on to him until restricted free agency. The team can decide how they want to deal with him and FVV at the same time. Unless some superstar comes available that the team needs to include him in a trade package, I don't see the return on trading him being equal value.
Pretty much what most of the forum thinks about when contemplating if you will ever become a good poster....
I'm not sure he has all that much now. If he was currently on a 3 year deal I think he'd already have negative trade value.
I'd be interested to see some advanced stats on degree of difficulty because just based on the eye test on my end, it seems like Jalen overwhelmingly taking higher degree of difficulty shots. I'd chalk that up to a mix of a more methodical half court offense since this is more of a defensive minded team, and some hesitation from Jalen alot of time that allows his defender to get set, and he has to make a move to get a shot off, or drive. A player like Jalen I think probably gets alot more easy looks in the open court with more of a up and down, low defensive intense style of offense. I think Jalen would look really good in a D'Antoni or Adelman type of offense for sure. Less so much in a Thibs/JVG style where he'd probably have trouble remaining as a starter. With Ime's system, I think we are still sort of in-between and figuring it out, but seems like we are leaning more Thibs than D'Antoni.
Yeah, I'm not sure people realise how insanely potent on offense Green would look in a D'Antoni offense (a typical one obviously, not later years where everybody just stood watching Beard play.) I'm way more impressed by Ime on the defensive end in general tbh, it's amazing to see the d, but the offense is less than inspired tbh. We make teams scramble more than the Silas years, but it's night and day compared to some of the looks Beard created over the years how much less we're making opposing defenses have to hustle to shut us down.
He’s not 22. Not in basketball years. Not when he had to suffer though G-League coaching and Silas coaching. It’s the main reason he’s so behind. no, no, Jalen is a fresh 19 year old rookie in NBA years
Then I'll remind you annually that you are wrong . https://nbastatsgeeks.wordpress.com...his formula is based,His name is John Zubatko. Quoting a relevant part: 'Essentially, the primary goal of the Win Shares Value is to measure marginal production. It calculates both a marginal offensive figure and a marginal defensive figure for each player, which is a way to value their production – that is, how well they produce points and prevent scoring – relative to league figures. Then to calculate the Win Shares, it requires dividing the sum of the player’s marginal point production by his team’s marginal points per win. In this way, a team’s Win Shares is distributed in a way that sums to the team’s actual win totals.'
Sure, but we are using a 20 game sample size to compare to an 82 game sample size.... Green's first 10 games 3pt % was markedly better than his last 10 games and his last two seasons. I'm not sure how we can definitely say Green is shooting worse this season.
