Not sure that I agree with your conclusion but I respect your argument. I'm not surprised the usual suspects are furious about it too.
You can't take everything i Thank you for providing the chart and giving your analysis. Based on this information you provided and your assessment, Sengun is having a historical season witin his first four yrs, as far as efficiency. So based upon face value, the avg fan, which most of us are, would say Sengun is on the same level as Magic, Bird, Oscar as well as the other players on that list. This is why you can not believe stats, they are misleading. Now fans of Sengun will argue that Sengun because of those numbers, Sengun will be better than Magic, Bird, Oscar, etc. Some are saying based upon his numbers now compared to Jokic's at the same age, he will be better than Jokic....BECAUSE THE NUMBERS SAY SO! You can not beleive everything that is written, think for yourself and believe the EYE TEST.
He is insane but i like that he's never rude or anything. He says some stupid sh.t you ask him a question that annihilates his entire argument but he never gets rattled by it and goes full 12 year old on you.
Thanks for recognizing that someone can hold a conversation without being ignorant. In regards to stats/numbers vs an eye test, no one still has not given me a logical answer as to why, when Aaron Holiday shot 6-7 3pt and had what many considered the best player of that game vs OKC, had the lowest +/-? So in theory, we would say, there are many variables which lead to his +/- being low; who he was on the court with, who OKC had on the court at the time, other than his play. There are many determining factors when considering a players +/-. This is why Im saying numbers are misleading to what we actually see on the court.
Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they don't watch the games, or blindly follow the numbers. Not everyone has the same eye test as you. I watch every rockets game and I think Sengun is very clearly our best player, according to my eye test. In fact, I think he is better than his numbers show. I think he is a significantly better and more impactful player than "21/9/6" would tell you. As for the question you asked here, I think you did a good job answering it yourself. The +/- stat is borderline useless when looking at one single game because, as you said, there are so many factors involved. It becomes a lot more useful over a large sample of games, but even then, there's a ton of context. Nobody should look at single game +/- to be a definitive indicator of anything. But back to eye test vs numbers, this doesn't mean I'm right, and it doesn't mean you're wrong. We're all allowed to have our opinions. But you should recognize that other people can see things different than you do. The way you're talking here it seems like you believe that others would see he's not very good if they would just watch the game and trust their eyes. That's not what I see at all.
Good, I see your point. And if you go back and look, I have said on many occassions that I think Alpi is a good player, I said he has shown to be an All - Star but I don't see him as the quility of player, as a Jokic or Embiid. I see him more as Sabonis, who is very similar, smaller center who is effective on the offensive end but avg on the defensive end. Have I said anything wrong yet? To me, there are different levels of players; great, all-stars, good and role players. I think Alpi is an All - Star but not great. To me, great players finish games, they are closers. Although Denver was one game but it showed us a lot I don't think you can finish a game with Alpi for these reasons; he doesnt have an effective enough shot outside of 10ft, he doesnt shoot good enough at the free throw line, he doesn't rebound well outside of his area, nor is a an elite defender. And if you go back and look at previous games and the Denver game, as well as others, those flaws show up in the 4th qtrs more time than not. Your best player, franchise player, etc. has to be able to close games.
Wrong? No, we're talking opinions here. You were wrong when you said he was a bench player and not starter material. And you were wrong when you said he would never be an all star. But now you are saying he will be an all star, so no, you aren't wrong about that. But I do see him being an Embiid/Jokic tier player. He has taken massive leaps between year 1 and 2, and then again between 2 and 3. He is ascending to the type of player I thought he could be from the start. I think that by year 4 or 5 he can be that type of player. I think he is already better than Sabonis, for the record. Yeah, those tiers of player exist. And I think he will be great. If you want to look at one game, sure, that was a rough one. But we have seen him close games. You can choose to only look at the one where played poorly if you want. He's not a finished product. It's not like anyone is arguing he's on that level yet, he's obviously not. But he's on track to become that type of player, and a lot of us believe in his continued progression. Clearly you don't, and that's fine. I do though. Yeah, and I think he can. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it really sounds like the biggest issue here is that you think he's reached his ceiling. Because you keep talking about how he's not that guy right now, like he isn't an MVP-tier player right now in the 2023 season. And of course you're right, he's not right now. If he never gets any better than he is today then sure, he won't be a franchise player. But I don't think he's hit his ceiling, I don't think he's close to it. And I, like most of the fans of this team, think that he will continue to get better and that he can become that guy.
We'll agree to disagree....I stopped reading when you said, you see him as being in the same tier as Jokic and Embiid.
Lol, alright man. Maybe I should have stopped reading your posts when you said he would never be more than an average player
You got me there! Busy on calls today and I was a little abrupt. My honest opinion is that he is good but I don't see him on the same tier as Jokic and Embiid. Players who are great. I think because people put more value on stats, than what they see for themselves, they refuse to see what's in front of their face. Sure Denver was one game but if you look at what I said, I said its more times than not. Meaning not just that game. And players like Embiid and Jokic, the ball is touching their hands 90% of the time in the final 5 mins do to their effectiveness. I am a fan, a fan of ALL Houston Rockets players. I just see limits in his game, the same way I saw limits to Harden's game and he is no James Harden or do you think he is better than Harden was at that age too?? Lol
So why do you think Sengun is almost always well above 0 in the games we win and rarely in -20/-30 range in total blowouts?
I think since I asked the initial question, someone should properly be able to answer my question first, correct? Why when Aaron Holiday shot 6-7 from 3pt range and when many, including myself, thought he was the player of the game, did he have the lowest +/-? And since he did, should we put more stock into numbers vs what we actually see on the court?
A few flukes will happen in a season for anyone and nobody really cares about a player's +/- when he's not consistently on the negative side. What happened to him will most likely happen only couple more times in this season in the games we win. If he's 'always' below 0 even in the games he makes his shots then it's probably because he can't play defense but i'm not cherry picking a game like you i'm just asking you why Sengun is 'consistently' on the good side of +/- and almost never has the lowest +/- in the games we lose?
Ok. Here is my analysis, a player's +/- is not only determined by him but by how the players around him play, as well as the opposing team. Thus, that's why a player can shoot 6 of 7 from 3pt range, play good defense on a player he is assigned to but still have a poor +/-. So if you take that into account, a player's numbers have many determining factors, other than how he himself plays. So when people base their opinions, assessments on Sengun based upon his +/- and say, he is going to be one of the greatest due to his +/- by compairson to Jokic, Embiid, Magic, etc. at similar stages inbtheir careers.... Don't you find that misleading? Because as you just said, "Nobody really cares about a player's +/-, as long as he is not in the negative. But just because a player has a positive +/- , you can't flip it around and say he is the best thing ever.
+ Thus that's why a player can shoot 6 of 7 from 3pt range, play good defense on a player he is assigned to but stil have a poor +/- No if you are shooting good from 3pt line and a good defender you will have good +/- 80% of the game you played. You are fixated on 1 game for no reason. Flukes happen and nobody in the world judges a player based off of 1 game. Nobody's like oh he was -20 in the game we won by 3 therefore he's a liability. Literally no mammal brain operates like this. If his +/- is always in the negative side then ppl start complaining about his game. +/- is a terrific metric if you have enough data. Last year Sengun was: +13 in Grizzlies (-10) -8 in Bucks (-20) -1 in Suns (-15) 0 in Wolves (-12) -5 in Pelicans (-13) +4 in Pacers (-8) +2 in Nuggets (-16) -4 in Nuggets (-20) 0 in Magic (-6) +5 in Mavs (-5) -3 in Pels (-11) -1 in Jazz (-17) -10 in Kings (-20) -2 in Kings (-25) -6 in Clippers (-21) +2 in Hornets (-5) +3 in Wizards (-5) -11 in Cavs (-18) -9 in Kigs (-20) -5 in Sixers (-19) -3 in GSW (-15) -7 in Grizzlies (-14) 0 in Nets (-22) -3 in Bulls (-8) -2 in Pelicans (-10) +5 in Grizzlies (-5) -18 in Grizzlies (-37) -5 in Lakers (-25) -12 in Cavs (-17) This is called consistency. He played with awful players under a god awful coach who loathed him but he still was better than most of his teammates in the 30 games we lost. We were 22-60 last year. So in the half of the games we lost he was pretty good compared to others. Even the odds were against his favor he found a way to look better than the others. He played against many different teams, different people guarded him, KPJ was his pg and he consistently had better +/- than his teammates. You have no idea what you are talking about my friend. Just because there are different factors playing role on a player's +/- doesn't mean he doesn't have any sort of control on his +/-. > So if you take that into account, a player's numbers have many determining factors, other than how he himself plays. So when people base their opinions, assessments on Sengun based upon his +/- and say, he is going to be one of the greatest do to his +/- by compairson to Jokic, Embiid, Magic, etc. don't you find that misleading? +/- isn't the only metric you should use that's for sure but it's not misleading comparing their +/-. Sengun is not going to be as good as Jokic because he's not as big as him and doesn't have his court vision. But if a guy tells me that their numbers were similar at the age of 21 therefore he could be like Jokic i don't feel like i'm being misled by him. He's just telling you that he's on the right track the only thing he doesn't know is that road will get bumpy, Sengun will come across bunch of potholes. We don't know if he can take that leap. I don't think he will but if someone tells me that he will i'll just assume that he doesn't think thoroughly
