Good. Maybe some of these cheap owners could sell to a Saudi how can compete. That’s what sports is about right? Competition?
In that case I hope he figuratively goes down just like the last Yamamoto who tried to take on 'Merica
That Ohtani contract is basically a stupidly rich team throwing money at something that will never justify it. Ohtani the pitcher is not worth 350 million, and neither is Ohtani the hitter...not even close. But the Dodgers can afford this type of extravagance.
A season where he gives you 150 games as a hitter and say 140 innings as a starter is worth about 100 mil, so any healthy season he has they're getting massive surplus value. I obviously hope he fails completely, but he's basically yordan at the plate and an elite starter
Gerrit Cole and Mookie Betts would have gotten 500 million if that were the case. Their 2 contracts combined aren't as much as Ohtani is making, and they are both significantly more valuable in their respective areas. Ohtani is already gonna miss a full season of pitching value.
The market is whatever somebody pays for a player. We knew his market was going to be astronomical. Everything you said is true… and yet we’ve already seen when a player gets a ridiculous contract that has never happened before… and eventually the markets correct to where future deals will one day be comparable, and it isn’t just inflation (much like the A-Rod deal was unheard of when it was signed). Ultimately the economics of baseball allow the richest teams to afford this… but the Dodgers have been pretty decent in their spending. Their shortcomings the last few years (much like the Yankees), while having a modest payroll last year… this sort of escalation wasn’t all that surprising.
they also signed years ago, and having 1 player who can do that is much more valuable then having 2. Like i said, i hope he fails and the contract is a disaster, but if he gives them 3 years where he's elite at both the contract will be fine
Ohtani won't pitch next season. So including next year he will have had "full' seasons as a pitcher in 3 off the last 8 seasons going back to Japan. Forgive me if I think it's absurd to suggest you are getting an actual ace level pitcher. But yes, market dictates and the cash flush Dodgers were never gonna allow him to go elsewhere, the fact that Toronto was even in the ballpark made them push all the chips in.
that's fair, but he's still going to likely have SOME elite pitching seasons over the next decade (i hope he doesn't). If he has 1 or 2, it's an overpay, but if he has 5 or 6, it's a bargain
For those interested, the Ohtani signing article on Fangraphs explained how deferred money works in CBT calculations: “As a result, on contracts with deferred money the MLBPA calculates the amount by which deferrals lessen the contract’s value — in Betts’ case, by about $5 million a year. That number is used to determine the contract’s value for competitive balance tax purposes.” So the deferred money doesn’t mean the money only hits the CBT calculation when it’s paid; it means the deferred money is discounted when calculating the year of the contract it applies to. Not as impactful but still interesting and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston use this tactic with Altuve.
With Ohtani, the opinion of the contract’s value is tied up in very subjective concepts: scarcity, consolidation, and marketability. Looking at Ohtani as an elite DH and an oft-injured ace makes $70M/yr over 10 years seem really stupid. But when you consider that Ohtani is probably the best player to ever live, providing more combined on field value than any player in history over the next 3-5 years, and that he is extremely marketable, the deal starts to make a lot more sense. Valuing Ohtani is like valuing a painting; there is only one. Ever. How do you price something with no peer or comparable. Theres also value in a 2 way player occupying only 1 roster spot but providing elite value at 2, although for me the consolidation actually lessens the value due to increased risk; I would much rather have 3 3 win players than 1 9 win player and 2 replacement players.
Generational players having generational seasons together (Ohtani and Trout) were unable to do much… just a perfect microcosm of the nuance of how baseball teams are generally successful, regardless of an individual player’s greatness.
pretty crazy they had both of those guys, making little money, and couldn't do anything. I guess trout wasn't great and was mostly injured the last few years though
Trout wasn't great, he is HOF Great. His career trajectory reminds me of Chuck Klein, and Cesar Cedeno, and Dick Allen and others...amazing at a young age yet were basically done by their early 30's.
In considering value, you also have to discount Ohtani's contract by however much value he brings to the Dodgers from Japan and the rest of his fanbase above and beyond what a Betts or Cole would do. I don't know how the TV rights work and if Japanese TV would have to pay the Dodgers to broadcast, or if MLB is going to move to more streaming, if the Dodgers stand to benefit, etc. Does everyone in Japan now buy new Dodgers Ohtani gear, and if so, how much does that bring in? Does their fanbase grow? Not sure what Ichiro's impact on Seattle was, but I imagine something similar there in how they valued him.
If they double the length of the contract to do payouts and use the current high interest rates to do the NPV, you could conceivably get the actual cost down around $50MM/yr, which is what he was widely assumed to get.
Samir : You know what I would do if I had a billion dollars? I would invest half of it in low risk mutual funds and then take the other half over to my friend Asadulah who works in securities... Michael Bolton : Samir, you're missing the point.
This has to be the absolute worst case scenario for the angels. Not only losing Ohtani to a crosstown rival but not trading him at the deadline and going all in yourself lol. Hate to see it happen to a team in the Astros division. How long until the angels fire sale starts?
This wasn't a good contract. He doesn't play enough to justify it. Rather jut get a great hitter for 35 mil and a great pitcher at 35 mil, but dodgers have no limit.
