I am fine with Barnhart. He has some limitations but he is above average behind the plate, and he has some power.
If ever there was a year to go all in this is the one. That being said I’m sure will just reassess at the trade deadline as usual.
I agree with this a lot... That being said, I would hate for this team to try and swing something at the deadline. Although I am not a prospect expert like Snake and others, the farm system needs to be rebuilt. Dana and the Astros have made several hires this offseason to prove that they need to build the system up.
2024 all in and pay the tax 2025 all in but stay under the tax; strive to have 4+ QO players 2026 soft rebuild, QO’s give them 8-9 of the top 100 players in the 2026 draft; trade Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Garcia, Javier, B Abreu for prospects at the deadline; expect to win 70-80 games with very low payroll 2027 new core starts to emerge from current high ceiling prospects in lower minors and 2025-2026 draftees/signees; expect to win 75-85 games with very low payroll similar to 2013-2014 2028 start a new run in situation similar to 2015
If Bregman leaves that's 30 mil off the books after this season. Plus 8 mil for Graveman. After '25 they'll have the following off the books: JV 20-25 Tucker 20+ mil Framber 20+ Montero 13 Abreu 19 Pressly 14 Urquidy 5-7 Will some of these prospects pan out? Hopefully so but it's going to take time. With so many key players being gone after '25 (and a ton of $$$ off the books) why not go for it these next two yrs and see if they could win another World Series. I've mentioned this numerous times over the yrs and I'll mention it again. Crane says he's willing to go over the luxury tax but I'll believe it when I see it (covid yr doesn't count). If there was ever a time to go over it it's this year and next. To think that this run is going to go on and on and on is smoking the hopium pipe. Most of their prospects will not pan out and while they have a team that can seriously contend for a World Series why not spend the $$ to address the holes they have for this yr and next. Given the state of their farm system right now there's too many other teams that could offer better prospects to make a trade for someone like Glasnow or Burnes or Bieber or any other top SP or reliever. Any significant addition will have to come through FA which means spending $$$ and being willing to go over the luxury tax.
Hope so, and hopefully you are right on Brown. Truth is we don't know yet though, and there is greater than a 50/50 chance we don't have legit replacements ready when those two are gone. I agree its in the best interest long term to not sign a lot of guys to big long term deals, but I just see no replacement lining up for Bregman right now, and even if one is drafted it's more down the road Either way, he is gone after next year and we will find out
It's actually only $20M off of the CBT payroll (which is really ball that matters) for Bregman. Graveman is, indeed $8M. So $28M coming off the books. Possibly Verlander and Pressly if they don't get the IPs in 2023 to vest the options, but likely will. Tucker, Framber, Urquidy, Dubon, McCormick, Garcia, B. Abreu, Bielak, Meyers, and Pena all due arbitration raises. Will Altuve's extension be over the $23.357M it is now? It will be very hard to keep 2025 salary under the CBT, probably harder than 2024.
It would not surprise me at all if Pressly ends up signing a new deal with the Astros. The guy loves being here and has expressed interest about staying here long term. I don't expect him to be a closer forever, but he also didn't expect to be a closer here.
As far as the "big 4" goes I think the play is: Current offseason: sign Altuve to an extension. Preferably one that lowers AAV (reasonable if it's a "lifetime" type deal into late 30's/ early 40s) to help payroll situation. 2024 trade deadline: no change unless out of contention, then trade Tucker for multiple young MLB ready high ceiling players. Try to extend Bregman 7 yrs or less @ less than $30M AAV before he hits FA. 2024-2025 offseason: Actively pursue Bregman as FA with same limits. Trade Tucker (if still on the team) if return is good and can get at least 2 players who project to be 5+ WAR (combined) for multiple seasons + some lottery tickets Try to work out extension for Framber. Nola /Snell deals should be good comps but slughtly less due to Framber's age. Look for trades for Framber (similar value as Tucker) if he won't extend. Keep Tucker and Framber for QO comp picks if they won't extend and the trade market doesn't bring at least multiple legitimate, multi year assets.
If this means being able to sign Hicks then I'm good with it. BTW, if Barnhart hits .220 he will be 30 points higher than Maldy with better defense.
Brown has been snatching up unproven relievers with big arms and stuff. Gage, Kuhnel, Sousa, Marquez. Maybe others fit the mold too. I haven't looked at all the scouting reports. It would not surprise me at all if the RP market is out of Astros price range and they go with what they currently have. Pressly and Abreu - high leverage. Graveman and Montero - whichever is hot supports high leverage when Pressly/Abreu need a day off. Revolving door among everyone else until someone stands out and forces his way in. Trade deadline: Luis Garcia gets added to semi- high leverage. Post season: hopefully McCullers can join JV, Framber, and Javier in rotation and Hunter Brown can be another weapon in the bullpen. Post season bullpen of: Pressly, Abreu, Brown, Garcia, Graveman, and Montero (if they all pitch as well as they have at times in the past) would be excellent.
For the record I would try to re-sign Bregs and keep the infield in tact. I would let Tucker walk after 2025 a long with Abreu and use that money to re-sign Framber. I'm hoping on of the OF hit, most likely Baez or Loperfido. If both of them hit your lineup is set and you would have money for another really good FA.
“We want to see what Meyers can do,” Brown said. James Click Dana Brown Betting their careers on Jake Meyers Spoiler Jake Meyers Jake Marisnick Jake Myles Straw
Looks like the moves that were patently obvious to make last season - making Meyers and Diaz your primary CF and C - will finally come to pass with Crusty out the door.
