This was entirely preventable. She was supposed to get a promotion at the end of this season to be an assistant GM. I even posted about how I was surprised that she did not get the promotion. I do not blame her for leaving FWIW. She was very well liked - also was very close to Martin Maldonado. The Astros under Dana Brown has now let go or failed to promote the two highest female executives in the the organization.
It’s not a certainty. They will need unexpected breakouts from their farm. Assuming they extend Altuve at a reasonable rate they will have 5 above average position players under control thru at least 2026: Diaz, Altuve, Pena, McCormick, and Alvarez. They should have the money to buy another star bat, so they essentially need the farm to produce 1 star bat and 2 solid regulars over the next 2 years. On the pitching side, Brown, Javier, Garcia, France, Abreu, and McCullers are all under team control thru at least 2026. Again, they will have some money to spend on pitching that should be able to patch up the back of the bullpen. I think if the farm can produce one ToR SP and one other core pitcher over the next 2 years, it will make sense for them to keep contending. I can’t pinpoint a prospect that I expect to be a star but they do have guys with that level of ceiling that could pan out. Either way it does make sense for them to go as hard as possible over the next 2 seasons and reevaluate after 2025.
I'm not for trading Framber, although I think he's a headcase. I think he wore down last yr. What would you do if you were in Crane/Brown's shoes. It's obvious to me they're going to have to shed one big money contract if they want financial flexibility. I keep coming back to there's about a 10% chance of Tucker signing long term with the team. He could probably get you a Gallen type pitcher. They could then trade say Urquidy and Arrighetti to the Cards for one of their studly young OF'ers and gain financial flexibility. I say this thinking Baez and Loperfido will be ready soon.
Yes - it is possible, unlikely but possible - but we will know a lot more after the 2024 season. If we get to the ALCS or WS, we are very likely to just role the dice on the 2025 season and let players leave as free agents. If we take a step back in 2024, then we will likely see players like Tucker and Valdez and Verlander moved. The reason I am fairly comfortable that the Astros are preparing for some degree of a rebuild is that I know for a fact that the Astros have increased their budget in the scouting department quite a bit, and that they have made moves to improve their farm system - and some of the people that they have targeted are people that are oriented towards the farm system. To the point that some money and resources have been diverted from other areas.
This is really about will guys like Baez/Gomez/Loperfido develop into star level players by then. Will Dezenzo develop or will they need to trade some of the guys you listed for a 3B? If they let Bregs/Tucker Verlander and Framber go, then they should have enough money to buy at least one TOR guy and hopefully by then Garcia will be back to normal and Brown after going through the normal rookie doldrums can become a solid SP2-3. Are there any potential Aces down in the lower minors? If they do this right, and hit on the OF'ers then the everyday lineup should still be solid for a long time and the pitching staff will still have an Ace plus 3-4 SP 2-3.
LMJ will be such a tough case going forward. I can't see dealing him right now, but either of the next 2 offseasons, he's kind of the perfect guy to move because he's owed decent money and you can't trust he'll stay healthy. If he makes it to an offseason healthy, I definitely think the right thing to do is shop him.
I agree that the window shuts after 2025 regardless. What I'm not sure about is if Crane and Brown agree or understand this. It sounds like they still think if they can trade away 1 or 2 short term, all star calibur players then suddenly 2026 is open again. It would take huge returns on any trades to make that happen. Let's say a team needs 5+ position players and 7+ pitchers who are above average to contend. 2024: Y. Diaz, J Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, McCormick, Tucker, Alvarez. JV, Framber, Pressly, B. Abreu, Javier, Brown, Graveman, McCullers (post season), Garcia (postseason) 2025: Y.Diaz, J.Abreu, McCormick, Tucker, Alvarez. JV, Framber, Pressly, B.Abreu, Javier, Brown, McCullers, Garcia + Altuve in all likelihood 2026: Y.Diaz, McCormick, Alvarez, ( Altuve). B Abreu, Javier, Brown, McCullers, Garcia. Even if Altuve is resigned, this team needs at least 1 other all star level bat and 2 very good pitchers just to have a chance to contend in 2026. Realistically 2 and 3. And the players who do leave are not the 7th and 8th best hitters, and 6th and 7th best pitchers. They are among the top 4 of each.
I'd pay market price (or slightly above) for a contending team. Half this run, Crane hasn't had to pay that. Half this run, they have. Revenues have presumably been consistent (or even higher) throughout. The biggest factor to keeping the window open will be their starting pitching. Getting JV/Morton/Cole (with a hint of still good Keuchel) and then Greinke at various times is what carried them from 2017-2020. Then covid year happens and they get Framber to find his way while promoting Javier/Garcia. Then 2021 truly sees glimpses of how good Framber can be, while getting post TJ LMJ for his best season yet. Then 2022 sees the JV comeback, best Framber, best Garcia, best Javier, best Urquidy, meh LMJ. Then 2023 it all goes to **** requiring them to trade back for JV. If Garcia comes back strong, LMJ comes back strong, Framber stays healthy again, JV on a one year to one year deal, and Javier gets in shape and can actually survive a full season... by all means they should continue to invest in the lineup (extend Tucker, Altuve, Bregman, etc.). If their starting pitching is once again held together by duct-tape, this window is essentially closed... regardless that they have prime Yordan.
This is why I'm not against trading Tucker for a young ace pitcher. Way too many variables on the pitching staff for my liking.
From a position player standpoint the team will have far far less margin for error. I'm not sure I agree Pena is above average. Certainly average and possibly gets there but not sure. But even if he is, he's not more than 10% above average. McCormick is probably due some regression to about 20-25% above average, and does Altuve decline any at age 36 (2026)? 2023: wRC+ Alvarez 170 Altuve 154 Tucker 140 Chas 133 Diaz 127 Bregman 125 Pena 96 2026: Alvarez 170 Diaz 127 Chas 126 (5% decline) Altuve 123 ( 20% decline @ age 36) Pena 106 (10% improvement) ? Pitching looks to be even worse.
Young ace pitchers don't really magically become available though. Best way is to develop one. If you can't develop one, you're limited to trade for higher priced, slightly older, pitchers that could be an ace. They're not trading Tucker this off-season, regardless. Maybe next off-season depending on how the team does... but by then, they should have a better idea of their pitching needs. A lot depends on how Framber does this season and how Garcia/LMJ bounce back when they're eventually cleared.
They need Framber to perform like a TORP or else they are probably ****ed from here on out with JV likely to get even worse next season.
All said and done, JV actually had a really good season. Better than any of his final seasons in Detroit when they thought he was "done". And what is preventing first half 2023 Framber from being that guy again? Anything? It wasn't that long ago.
If they add Cease and Robert they are probably looking to shed salary elswhere. I'd be curious what Framber could fetch in prospects to reload... My preference is with all but Bregman and Altuve locked up 2 years, roll with what we would have and figure out Bregman or replacement next offseason, possibly using a pitcher like Framber as a rental for a young 3B and young RF. SCARY... Verlander Valdez Cease Javier Mccullers/Garcia/France/Bielak Altuve Tucker Bregman Alvarez Robert Diaz Abreu Pena Add a DH and you're cooking...
What it comes down to is having to juggle so many balls that eventually it doesn't happen. In two years the Astros will need a 1st baseman, 3rd baseman, right fielder, a closer, a #1 and a #2 starter........ and more. There will be some money to spend, and the younger guys in the system will be older by then - but the odds of it all working are very remote.
I don't know for certain what their timeline is when it comes to competing again. The most likely outcome is that the Astros are very good in 2024 and the team keeps Tucker and Valdez and then go hard at 2025 knowing they will take a step back in 2026. Regardless of what the Astros will say publicly over the next 18 months - I know for certain that the Astros front office is preparing to shift their focus.
There are logical and known reasons for the struggles of Valdez and Javier last year. There is a good chance both of them are pretty good next year. Verlander is always dicey with age and injuries, but when he pitches he is still really good.
I think Framber will be fine - in some ways he showed the best stuff of his career last season. As for JV, he was in his early 30s during his last years in DET while he his over 40 today. Moreover, he really had two iffy seasons in DET in which he lost of some velo which he eventually regained. I don't think his struggles were as much velo related last season as they were with spin/movement, which caused his Stuff+ to take a big hit this past season. Maybe he has another mini-renaissance...but considering his age I think it's far more likely that he gets worse.
There's worse... where he goes from a dominant cy young award winner in 2022 to a top 10% every 4th day starter in 2023 (could have been an all-star). Then there's fall off a cliff, should likely retire worse. He'll likely be in between... which is still damn good/consistent and moreso than they can say for any other pitcher on their roster right now.
