Only Correa, Bregman, and Tucker were actually expected to be that good. Every other player dramatically exceeded their draft/bonus and prospect ranking. Altuve, JD, Framber, Javier, Garcia, Diaz, JP, and Keuchel were prospect nobodies and Houston has 2 dozen guys in their system as highly rated as those guys were. Springer, McCullers, Yordan, and Pena were nice prospects but not super hyped guys; guys like Matthews and Melton are currently as highly rated as they were.
Exactly, and we've also had our share of super hyped draft guys be complete buns, either here or somewhere else (Appel, Aiken, Bukauskas, Beer, Daz Cameron)
Potential future call ups with a chance to make this list. Most will not but at least one a year will. 2024 Corona CF, Loperfido 1st base/VB, Kouba P 2025 Dezenzo 3rd base, Gordon SP, Dombroski SP 2026 Melton 1st base/LF, Bloss SP, Tredwell SP, Taylor closer 2027 Mathews 2nd base, Baez corner OF, Gomez CF, Diaz SS, Luciano 3rd base, Bloss SP and on and on.
If I had to guess who it will be in 2024 - I’ll go with Whitley in the bullpen or maybe Gordon if he starts out well.
I know we can develop pitchers. JP is a prime example. Position players are different. Only Chas has been a surprise. Pena was good in last years playoffs but he's pretty much what we thought he was. All the other guys including Diaz were pretty high upside bats and none were a surprise. Maybe Yordan was a surprise but not to the Luhnow. So unless there are some guys that management is stashing away, I just don't see 3 guys in the next 2 seasons to replace 3 out of Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, and Abreu. We can extend our window if we find 2 from the minors and pay up for the third.
I depend on you guys for my farm info, so I hope you are right. The last 8 years has been a real blessing as a Houston sports fan.
So much of the rookie contributions is based on opportunity. For 2024, the majority of impact positions are projected to be filled. 8 of the 9 starting position players are set, with an outfielder being the opening. There are 6 healthy starting pitchers and 2 more that should join the staff sometime during the season. the closer and top leverage s/u reliever spots are set. any other positions: backups and lesser leverage relief pitchers simply don't make enough of an impact to get ROY votes. Case in point: in 2020. Andre Scrubb, Blake Taylor, and Enoli Paredes were 1st, 3rd, and 4th in IP among Astros RP (less than 5 GS) and had excellent years but none of them sniffed any ROY consideration. Of course health is a huge part of opportunity so I will look at that as well. Last year, Yanier Diaz played approximately 2/3 of the season: 104g and 377 PA at exceptional level at a premier position yet only got votes from 4 of 30 voters. That means that any player will need at least that amount of opportunity to be considered for a top 5 finish. Best options: an OF that gets lots of playing time. This would likely require a Jake Meyers trade and/or a great start from this rookie. So who could it be: Kenedy Corona? Pedro Leon? Justin Dirden? Joey Loperfido? Jacob Melton? Colin Barber? Quincy Hamilton? What if there is an injury? It would take multiple pitcher injuries to give any rookies a chance. Not realistic even if 2023 level of injuries. For position players: An injury to Diaz, Altuve, or Pena would likely mean a non-rookie gets the opportunity. An injury to Abreu or Bregman could open an opportunity for Kessinger, Desenzo, Wagner, or one of the OF above.
I would not be surprised by Whitley making this team and being a positive contributor, but how many innings is he likely to get? 75? Apparently the Astros have 6 healthy SP that they are only likely to trade from if it involves adding another. That means at least 2 of those guys will need to get hurt before McCullers and/or Garcia return and then he would need to be the winner of a starting role over guys like Arrighetti, Gordon, Bielak, Blanco, and/or Dubin.
Whitley at this point would be found money. The dude has so rarely pitched and often not with that much acclaim. I know his fastball is still seen as plus but he can't be ready for very many innings. If he is going to be a factor it will take a STRONG spring . Too many proven arms on the roster already with more coming in second half.
I do not expect any favors from MLB for the Astros. Even with all the injury time he lost Whitley may not be awarded an additional option year. If he is not they will have to put him on the 26 man roster or loose him.
