The thing is that Lance has always pitched well when healthy. He has Cy Young talent in a very injury susceptible body. I don't think anyone expects him to start 25, or even 20 games or pitch 150 or even 125 innings. But I think after missing all of 2023, having surgery, and rehabbing, making 2024 as rested and ready as his body can he, it's reasonable to expect him to start 15 games and 90 innings at ACE level. The question is will those 15 games be June-August, July-September, or August-October? Even if he is medically cleared and ready early in the season it may be better to wait until the trade deadline to activate him.
His 2021 season, after the TJ rehab, was his best overall season as a starter. He was dominant. Had his career high in innings. Had a full repertoire of stuff. Suffered the injury in the playoffs. The biggest mistake was them trying to rehab it vs proceeding with the surgery then/there. There was no pending FA that he was trying to be a good candidate for. He was noticeably a different pitcher (despite still being effective) and became more “finesse”. If he can now get back to some more power stuff… and mix it with the finesse he was forced to utilize in 2022, he can still very much be a dominant pitcher. Yes, health is the ultimate question mark, but I’m predicting him to be very good when healthy.
Anyone who thinks the Astros are trading for Arrenado simply doesn't pay attention. 1) He has a full no-trade clause, loves St.Louis and has stated he does not want to be traded. 2) St.Louis is in the NL Central and expect to compete. They are spending money to compete not reduce payroll by trading away stars. 3) St.Louis has a roster over stocked with position players and actually need to trade some away. None of them are everyday 3B (though some are utility types that can play there in a pinch) so Arrenado is last player they should want to get rid of. They have too many outfielders and utility types that should be traded first. 4) I have read no fewer than 7 "players most likely to be traded" stories in the past week and his name never comes up. He simply is not available
Agreed. Just looking at some basic math and common sense. Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker have an additional year over Bregman. It's really that simple. If signing Bregman means you lose both Valdez and Tucker then it doesn't make any sense to hold onto Breggy. Having an SP1 or 2 in Valdez means so much over the course of a season. Especially with Garcia and Lance on the mend - that's our bullpen help.
I'm skeptical on Carter. He has 114 plate appearances above AA where he had an .862 OPS. He was sheltered from lefties virtually completely. I think he's an every day AAA player to start the season. MLB history is full of rookies who are great in 100 first plate appearances and are heard no more. His age and jump through the levels make it more likely to occur. The Seager, DeGrom, and Semien contracts will cripple them. We have had issues retaining talent without 100 million in salary in a black hole on the roster. Garcia will come up and, best case for them, need to get paid... then they can't afford him probably... I don't think they are well run at all. They had developed only 4 of their players on their roster and 2 were rookies.... Everyone else were free agents or trades.
1) He's blocking Gorman 2) He's got 4 years left and 109 million thru age 36 3) The Cardinals would absolutely trade him for a #1 starter. 4) They just committed 36 million in tax salary to Lynn and Gray, they are projected at 202 million, about 50 million more than last year. 5) Has anyone asked him if he would go to Houston? I'd rather have Gorman or Walker. I just think it's foolish for them to not unload a chunk of his back end salary when Walker or Gorman are ready. Arenado isn't a great asset as his age and salary. Just my opinion... why I think he's attainable. Valdez for Winn, Gorman, and Thompson is a done deal for me if we're moving on from Bregman.
They just won the World Series. If there is one thing that solidifies an org as well run, it’s a ring. Those megadeals might come back and bite them but they’ve got a good farm and their GM has shown a keen eye for adding the right veteran pitchers. They are a well run organization.
Who has been pushed out the door? I have concerns about the Astros going forward, but it isn't because guys are being pushed out the door - but because it has been a decade and a number of the key figures have become higher level executives with other organizations. Change happens - especially when you have the architect essentially black balled by the game.
The Rangers player evaluation is very different than the Astros. I'm not saying they are bad at it - but they just do it differently.
No, she did not leave voluntarily but she was with the Astros for less than two years so I don't know how much input she really had. The last two hires for the Astros have been for older people.... De Jon Watson and Deric Ladnier are both very experienced and have been successful so I am not overly concerned with Brown hiring them as upper level executives on the scouting side. For what it is worth, Watson is older but is known as very progressive in his scouting approach. I agree with you that the Astros need younger and more progressive people in the organization. They still have Andrew Ball, Gavin Dickey, Charles Cook and Jacob Buffa all are in their 30's to early 40's.... so there is still a fair amount of youth in the organization at the top of the organization.
The Astros were built by having an all-star level player come up almost every season since 2011. I just don't see anyone in the farm that will be that guy moving forward and I don't think Crane sees one either, which is why he hired Brown to rebuild the farm while making the most of the next 2 seasons. Enjoy it while it lasts. Unless there is a Yordan hiding somewhere, I don't see us contending after 2025 after we lose Bregman/Tucker and Altuve finally starts regressing. 2011 Altuve 2012 Keuchel 2013 should have been JD 2014 Springer 2015 Correa 2016 McCullers 2017 Bregman / Yuli 2018 No one but we traded for Cole 2019 Yordan 2020 Tucker 2021 Framber, Javier 2022 Pena, Garcia 2023 Diaz, JP, Brown
This has been so awesome to see. It feels like an Astros rookie immediately becomes one of my favorite players year after year.
In the 2021 to 2023 years, I don't think anybody expected any of the names on that list to be all-star caliber players. Part of the Astros sustained success is them bringing up guys almost out of nowhere that perform at a high level. Examples...Pena was a high glove only prospect, but went nuclear in the 2022 playoffs offensively, Garcia was an emergency starter directly from AA in the 2020 playoffs then stayed in the majors, Framber was a back of rotation starter until he suddenly found it after two lackluster stints in the majors. JP France and Brown surged out of nowhere, France basically anchoring the entire rotation for the first half of the season. Diaz was just a part of the Myles Straw package that ended up mashing in the minors. Sure, a large part of it is the highly touted guys coming out of the draft (Bregman, Correa, Tucker), but part of this is the organization is really damn good at development. Hell, who thought Dubon would come around the way he did? Who knows who will be the surprises in 2024.
