Trading Bregman would be akin to trading Caminiti and Finley before they hit the needl... their prime.
Astros have typically avoided trading for big name rentals. All of the stars they have traded for came with at least 1.5 seasons of control. I don’t expect that to change. Cease would be the target if Houston adds a SP, with Joe Musgrove and Mitch Keller as dark horses. Robert and Arozarena could be matches on the position player side.
Where did you get this? Or did you just pull it out of your a**? I would like you to post a link or information where you saw that Bregman wants to play SS? And wants to go to Arizona for that matter. Bregman is a very good 3B, but hasn't played SS in 4 years. He also was on the lower end of average defensively when he did play there. He does not have the lateral movement nor the arm for SS. As a 3B Alex is a potential all-star and top 5 player at his position. At SS he would be an after thought. Actually 2B would probably be his best position but he is fine at 3B.
While I think it is unlikely the Astros get a big name SP rental, I would say the Astros are likely more open to it this season than in the recent past as they are just in a different place than they've been recently. The Astros are likely close to their budget, and might not be willing to meet trade demands for what is needed to bring in a Cease or similar level controlled SP.
You might be right but I think they’ve settled pretty firmly on their current window being 2 years and I doubt they will make any moves to shorten/condense that. If there’s any substance to the Bregman rumors I think it’s centered around using him to acquire players with 2 (or more) years of control to strengthen 2025 (without doing too much damage to 2024). Another benefit of trading Bregman for players with 2+ years of control is that it removes the draft pick incentive to stay under the tax threshold (assuming they’ve already got Altuve’s extension worked out). If trading Bregman as part of a series of moves bringing in a star OF and ToR SP (both with 2+ years of control) then means Crane takes the reins off and spends well over the tax in 2024, it might make it a more logical move. They they could reassess next offseason and determine if they expect 2025 to be their last year of contention, in which case they’d need to get under the tax to capture draft picks for Tucker, Framber, and any other pending free agents that might warrant it (ie Cease).
Outside the box plan: Trade Bregman for an elite prospect and another good prospect. Flip those prospects along with Brown and Meyers (and maybe 1-2 more org top 10 prospect like Arrighetti and Leon) for Cease, Robert, and Kopech. Sign Matt Chapman to a deal with the first year or two massively front loaded; that makes him very tradeable after 2024 or 2025 if needed. Sign Caratini to a 1-2 year deal to be the backup C. Resulting roster: CF Robert 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker 3B Chapman C Diaz LF McCormick SS Pena Bench: Kessinger, Dubon, Caratini, Singleton Rotation: Verlander, Valdez, Cease, Javier, Urquidy, France Bullpen: Pressly, Abreu, Kopech, Montero, Graveman, Garcia/Whitley, McCullers/Bielak Astros would not lose anybody after 2024 and would be poised to rebuild or retool after 2025. This buys Dana Brown 2 drafts (and 2 years of farm time) to potentially find/create some guys to extend the window.
Wow. Snake. Thats some effort into that info. Good value to the board if it happens er not. Good ideas
I have a completely different take on this team's SP. 1) Verlander may not win another Cy Young award, but he has the gravitas of an ace and should still perform at TOR level as long as he's healthy. 2) Framber had a poor 2nd half and post season after being the Cy Young leader at the 1/2 mark. His overall h/9,whip, BB%, and K% were all very similar to 2022. His previous 2 1/2-3 1/2 years should be more indicative of his projected 2024 than 3 months after hurting his ankle and the entire weight of being the ACE on his shoulders the first 4 months. Some people just don't perform at their best as a #1. Some are better suited to he the #2. 3) Christian Javier had to adjust to being a full time starter for 162 full games after a 47% increase in his most ever IP and then a short offseason due to WS and WBC. I think he was simply gassed. He really showed something by pitching well down the stretch until game 7, despite being on fumes. I completely see a full offseason and adjustment to 160+ IP helping him back to a borderline all-star, #2-3 level starter in 2024. Maybe not as good as 2022, but much better than 2023. 4) Hunter Brown. 2023 was a classic rookie season by a good but not top level prospect. There were flashes and growing pains. I fully expect a step up in consistency and better results with less pressure since the rotation should be healthier. 5-6) Jose Urquidy and J P. France. If these guys are in the rotation, I fully expect them to fill innings, keep the team in games, and save the bullpen. * Lance McCullers Jr. He should be the big trade deadline acquisition that really raises the rotation to the next level. I expect 2022 level production over 2-3 months giving this team 4-5 playoff calibur starters. * Luis Garcia. I see him like another trade deadline acquisition coming back and being put into a 7th inning role where he could flourish and deepen the bullpen to previous excellent levels.
I don't believe there is any substance to Bregman trade rumors. He is making $30M this year. The only way a trade makes sense is if a team over pays for Bregman and then the Astros flip those prospects for a player that is traded below value to the Astros. If I'm the GM of the team the Astros are trying to trade Bregman to, it would be a huge red flag that there is likely someone better than Bregman available for the prospects the Astros want. With only 28 other teams, it shouldn't be that hard to figure out. Dumb trades happen. It just isn't something that should be planned on.
What is this obsession with trading Bregman? We didn't trade Correa, Cole, Verlander, Springer when they had a year left on their contracts because winning games is the name of the game... not saving money or collecting prospects that may not pan out. It is not as if we are trading Nori Aoki to create more playing time for Marwin...
Yes - but from what I am hearing, if the Astros end up getting an established #1/2 type pitcher, it is going to be a rental or possibly someone with two years of control. The reason is that at this point the Astros window is year-to-year and the cost for someone like Glasnow is going to be less than someone under multiple years of control. Also, the Astros are weak on prospects at the higher levels. Would the Astros rather have Cease? Yes, they fought until a day before the deadline last year to try and pry Cease/Robert from the White Sox. However it is all going to come down to cost and who they can get a deal done with. The Dodgers and Braves both are trying to pry away Cease at the same time. So while I think your premise is accurate - I think the Astros are more flexible at this point, and more willing to sacrifice length for performance.
Crane will go over budget for the right player and one not on a long term contract. The concern is being stuck with an injured player on an expensive long term deal, that will put them over budget for multiple years. He will go over budget for a year or two for someone that really helps over the next couple years.
Any substance to the rumors? There is substance there to the extent that the Astros had interest in other really good third basemen as soon as the season ended. The Astros were quite interested in Matt Chapman at the right price point. How likely is that to happen? Not that likely. The glove of Chapman and the power will likely get him a contract above the amount the Astros view as a good value. Having said that, I don't see the Astros trading Bregman unless they have another option that is strong at 3rd and that isn't the case right now. The most likely scenario is that Bregman plays out this year and leaves as a free agent and the Astros address their 3rd base hole next off season. Again - the only exception I can see would be is if the market for Chapman is really cold, the Astros sign him to a 3-5 year deal and then they move Bregman for salary relief and a couple prospects.
There are certainly scenarios where the Astros pitching staff can be the best or top 5 in baseball.... there are reasonable arguments that both Valdez and Javier were tired, battled nagging injuries and will bounce back and be very good.... same with Brown showing improved command and taking a step forward. The issue is that the cost of good to great pitching on the market during the season is so great, that it can be cost prohibitive, so the Astros want to minimize their risks by adding another really good arm in the rotation. It is like hedging your risk on a bet by making other bets that only pay off if you lose your original bet - the Astros right now seem to be adverse to drastic outcomes because this is the window to win.
These are my thoughts exactly. I think we need a solid bullpen acquisition and an OF option who plays decent defense and hits RH for a platoon. Save your powder for the deadline in case of injuries. Injuries and Dusty who the main reasons for our struggles.
Here is what I would do if I was the Astros this offseason and the plan for next couple years: Sign- Garver 3/39 Sign- Candelario- 4/70M Sign- Snell- 5/140M Sign- Joc Pederson- 2/20M Extend- Altuve- 6/144M Trade- Dubon for prospects Trade- Bregman for prospects Trade- Brown, Chas, Meyers, France, Urquidy to White Sox for Cease & Robert Trade- Montero and a couple prospects (maybe from the bregman deal) for essentially nothing/salary relief. 2024 Result: Snell/JV/Framber/Cease/Javier (LMJ and Garcia injured and due back half way through)- 80M (using Spotrac's estimated numbers) Presley/Abreu/Graveman/Whitley/Beilak/Blanco/Martinez/Souza- 27M Regulars (all money comes first position you see the guys name at) Diaz/Garver- 14M Abreu/Diaz- 19M Altuve- 23 Pena- 1M Candelario- 17M Yordan/Garver- 19M Pederson/Yordan/Corona- 11M Robert- 12.5 Tucker- 13 Kessinger- 1M Total- 130M Luxury tax Line- 237M Total payroll- 237M. Luxury tax add ons for Fica- traveling expenses 40man etc. 20M. So- you'd be 20M into the tax- no draft pick losses. 2025- Graveman leaves saving 8M but with arbitration raises to Pena, Tucker, Framber, Cease, B Abreu, Garcia you probably have a net 10M gain in payroll and you are then 30M over. At no point in this scenario do you get into punitive taxes or draft pick penalties. You have the best roster in the history of the Club for 2 years. 2026: Assets left: Altuve- 5/120 (net negative contract- but he's a legend and an Astro for life), Yordan 3/78, Garver 1/14, Snell- 3/94 Javier- 2/42 LMJ- 1/17M Robert- 2/40 (club option Diaz- 3 years of Arbitration Abreu- 1 year of Arbitration Supplemental picks for Tucker and Framber leaving in FA I would suggest that if the farm doesn't get a lot better or guys don't come through big you would have a massive sale at this time if you didn't think there was a path to WS contention. You could probably get a massive haul of prospects for Diaz, Robert, Yordan, Javier (if he's healthy), and some pretty good prspects if you ate some money (like 1/2 the total contract like the mets did) for Snell if he's healthy. Abreu as well would probably have decent value as a rental bullpen ace in his last year. Figure those guys altogether should bring back something like 10 or 12 top 100 prospects (2 or 3 each for Yordan, Robert and Diaz, plus a top 100 guys for Abrue, and maybe a couple between them for Snell and LMJ). Your new payroll has Altuve- 24M, Garver- 14M- Snell (eating 14M), LMJ- 17M (if you can't trade him) so 80M plus minimum wage guys. You would have the last 2 draft classes, plus whatever we develop between now and then, plus 10 or 12 top 100 prospects and only Altuve for 24M per and 30M or so of Snell on the board in 2027 & 2028. You will draft early in 27 & 28 as you won't be very good in 2026 or 2027, but going into the 2028 year you'd be down to Altuve, all minimum wage, plus about 15 or 16 top 100 type prospects from trades and those 2 draft classes. It could be like the Marlins tearing it down in 97 and winning again in 2003, but an even shorter time in between- and we could re-set another 10 year window like the last 10 or 12 years we've had. This plan would make us the favorites to win the next 2 WS if things broke our way and then take us back to 2014 essentially in our developmental timeline.
IDK about drastic, but many a good season happened because of making major moves. I understand the cost of first rate pitching is high, but isnt it always? Until we know what the Rangers ultimately do this off-season, its hard to gauge what we must do to keep up/stay ahead of them. If the Rangers do relatively nothing, then maybe a passive approach keeps us in the hunt. But if the Rangers add some substantial help that certainly makes them better, then we have to decide if we really want to win this year.
I agree with you that the cost of pitching is always high - and I don't think the Astros are adverse at all to making a major move. I think the Astros STRONGLY want to add a higher level player to this team and are willing to do so on a shorter contract if they can make it happen. As for the Rangers - they are nothing but secondary motivation, because the goal isn't winning the division or beating the Rangers, it is to win another World Series. I can tell you that the Astros believe that the Rangers will spend money this off season and they will address their bullpen and rotation and it will not be cheap. Does that put extra pressure on the Astros? Yes, but that pressure was going to be there regardless.
