What the WAR = $8MM doesn't consider is that 4-5 WAR players don't grow on trees, and 1 4-5 WAR player is more far more valuable than 5 1-WAR players for a contending team because it leaves you 4 other slots to add good players players. Bregman's not getting traded; but if he were, his trade value to a contending team would come from the fact that you can't just sign a Bregman-level player off the street, especially not for a 1-yr $30MM deal.
Tampa has always made moves with the long term in mind. They’ve never made a meaningful move based on one year. They also have always been very limited with payroll. I would not want Houston to make the trade you suggested (although I don’t view it as nearly equivalent to the one I listed), but that’s in the context of knowing Houston is fully capable of sustaining a top 10 payroll so the payroll management part of it is not a factor like it is in Tampa. I wouldn’t expect Tampa fans to like a trade of Brown and Dubon for Arozarena and Glasnow. But considering their financial limitations and the value projections, it’s something their front office might do.
Cease, Robert, Kopech, and Jimenez should all be gone this offseason. Those 4 should net the Sox an entire farm’s worth of top prospects. Then they can hope Moncada, Soroka, Benintendi, and whatever cheap stopgap veterans they sign have rebound years so they can flip them at the deadline. If they play this right they could do a 2 year rebuild and be in position to dominate their division for years starting in 2026.
I love taking the view of a 5 year old when it comes to baseball teams (quoting him with his permission): "Dad, if the White Sox have so many good players that we could trade for... how come THEY'RE not good?"
It takes more than just 2 good players and a handful of average players to contend. Houston’s run has seen them consistently field a roster with 5-6 elite hitters and 2-3 additional everyday caliber guys. Benintendi and Jimenez and Moncada would be bottom of the order guys in Houston, in Chicago they are the meat of the offense. Similar situation on the pitching side.
Baseball teams are made of a lot of players. They don't have many good players. They had 2 good players last year, and a few guys that stunk that may play better in the future.
Man, that Maeda deal looks like a steal and he would have been a great fit for the Astros. Were the Astros not in on him?
That's about $2M more AAV than what you will have to pay for a decent reliever in this market, and Maeda is much more than that. He could very easily outperform that contract and he's overall been very consistent in his effectiveness over the past 2-3 years. It's also only $4M more AAV than what we will be paying Graveman this season to provide little to no value.
This Bregman thing has me worried quite a bit. Makes some of the Bichette noise feel a little more understandable in context. Just not sure what a package from any team coming back for Bregs looks like . . . that would help us now. And who plays third? Do you shift Pena over and dubon at short? That feels super underwhelming, not sure if a rookie over there sounds worse . . . . I'd rather let him walk and squeeze the rest of his contract out of him.
He hasn't relieved for 4 years, indicating he likely took this deal for a team he knew he'd be starting for. I just don't think he's going to usurp $12 million/year value at his age. Would have taken him two years ago for the deal the Twins got. The Astros (and all smart teams) should target THAT sort of player. Not sure why you don't perceive Graveman to add value? Unless you think they're retaining Neris and Stanek? Graveman certainly projects to be an important part of this bullpen.
The only way it makes sense for me is if the Astros would be swapping Bregman for a stud SP also with limited control, which doesn't seem likely.
Graveman sucks ass, and likely will not be an important part of the pen for that reason. Maeda has put up $12M+ value in each season of his career as a major leaguer. He has never had a season as a big leaguer with an xERA over 4.00. He's a very solid and reliable pitcher who, if healthy, is unlikely to significantly underperform the deal. The Astros could have used him as a starter and possibly transitioned him to the pen or piggybacked him with Garcia or McCullers when they come back.
You're still paying him more for what he was... like I said, teams should be targeting guys where he was 2 years ago given that the market hasn't changed that much. Making $3 million a year and exceeding value as a starter. And with expert analysis like so and so "sucks ass", I'm surprised you need to take things rationally further?
Just spitballing here but the Mets, Mariners, and Blue Jays could make some levels of sense in lining up a Bregman trade. Definitely don’t want to trade him to the mariners. I think if you trade Bregman by himself- the package would appear to be underwhelming to most fans because he has only one year on his deal remaining. Jeff McNeil and Drew Gilbert for Bregman and Pedro Leon?
