Here's why I like Luis Robert... he's Kyle Tucker's replacement in the outfield. It's easier to find a RF than a CF so someone like Colin Barber or Jacob Melton replaces Tucker in a couple of years. I think Crane needs to eat some tax for 1-2 years.... Here's why... It wouldn't be a lot of tax. Making moves this season could extend the window for competing for many years. Assuming Altuve and Bregman are brought back for similar money, we still have: 2025: little savings (Graveman) 2026: 80 million off (Verlander, Abreu, Pressly, and Montero) plus whatever Tucker is making. Spend that 80 million now: Framber extension (20x6) Luis Robert (20 million) Blake Snell (25x7) We pay tax for 2 years and then it falls off. Abreu replaces Pressly Then we're looking to develop a 1B and RF in the farm system within 2 years. I think Hunter Brown is on the outside looking in on the rotation (Snell, Verlander, Valdez, Javier, McCullers) so he's then expendable in a deal with Robert. McCormick is also expendable if you want Yordan in LF primarily so Abreu has some additional DH opportunities to keep him fresh. I'm ok passing on Snell for another starter if money gets crazy, he is a Boras guy. Bottom line is a 2 year window of paying taxes keeps us going.
They need to do something. We were just a couple of games from missing the playoffs entirely last season. Sure we will have a full season Altuve and Diaz but what if the pitching continues to regress?
Potential 2024 starters available at some point during the season. J Verlander F Valdez* C Javier JP France H Brown J Urquidy L McCullers L Garcia R Kouba C Gordon* The idea that they could all regress seems very unlikely. It is more reasonable that some will get better, some will be worse, and that most will perform about as expected. Some will sit in Sugar Land waiting for an opportunity. Others will pitch out of the pen for at least part of the season. One or two may even be traded away but there is no lack of pitching likely next season. No reason to go after anything other than a top of rotation guy and the top of this rotation will be very high indeed. R Pressly B Abreu K Graveman B Sousa* R Montero R Blanco F Whitley B Bielak P Mushinski M Gage* J Kuhnel S Martinez S Dubin The pen will be just as full and will overflow into the minors as well. Here again there is no point in picking up an arm unless it is a very impactful arm.
Current 26 man roster ratings. Options: 20 = superstar, can not be improved 14= all star/ above average 10= perfectly average player 5= needs improved 1= terrible, actively negative player. Perfect: 520 Worst: 26 Contender: 300 Potential: 250 20= Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker. Verlander, B. Abreu. 14= Y.Diaz, Bregman, MCormick, Framber, Pressly 10= J.Abreu, Pena, Meyers, Dubon, Javier, Brown, France, Graveman 5= Kessinger, S. Martinez, Sousa, Montero, Urquidy 1= Salazar, Singleton, RP #7. Total: 278 + McCullers and Garcia both should be available sometime. Both ate 10s and will replace a 5 and a 1 = 292.
You can't build a roster assuming good players get worse. You can maybe add a starter to offset it, but if the pitching is worse we're likely gonna miss the playoffs and start a rebuild. Astros fans have been spoiled by comfortable seasons with a ton of breathing room, which isn't the case anymore.
J Verlander (not worried) F Valdez* (worried) C Javier ( worried) JP France (good 4-5 starter) H Brown ( good 4-5 starter) J Urquidy ( we know what we are getting) L McCullers ( ?) L Garcia (?) R Kouba (who) C Gordon* (who) This rotation will keep us in the hunt but there’s no way I would feel comfortable in post season with them if framber and Javier are shitty again. other than Jv it’s a bunch of question marks.
Upside/Downside of each SP: JV: Still-effective Hall of Famer; elderly Framber: CY candidate and experienced playoff starter; ineffective at end of 2023 Javier: posted elite run prevention 3/4 of his big league seasons and has turned in playoff gems; coming off a bad 2nd half of 2023 Brown: prime-Verlander level potential; young and hasn’t consistently performed McCullers: has pitched like a #2 SP when healthy; never been consistently healthy Urquidy: 4-2 record in playoff decisions; middling pitcher Garcia: a 3 fwar pitcher when healthy; underwent TJ this year France: ERA <4 as a rookie this year; lacks ToR potential Arrighetti: very good stuff and touted as next-in-line top pitching prospect in a system that has consistently churned out MoR SP year after year after year; he’s really not that great of a pitching prospect, is not highly rated overall and has middling minor league numbers Whitley: once the top pitching prospect in all of MLB and still throws 100; always hurt, 10 cent head, done nothing above AA That’s 10 guys, you can throw Bielak in there and then Dubin and Blanco before you even get to lower prospects like Kouba and Gordon. Houston has a good, VERY deep rotation, but there are certainly questions. If they have a reasonable opportunity to add a proven ToR SP, they should and I think they will. But if they don’t, they’ll very likely be fine and still contend.
https://www.mlb.com/news/hypothetic...cMUBp6lLmCxLjOYJHaoxtmlDN&bt_ts=1700833924476 Bonkers hypothetical trade from mlb.com writer. Bregman to NYY in a 4 team deal that brings back Orioles IF Jordan Westburg. I like Westburg quite a bit but would not like this trade especially considering they have Houston also sending out Arrighetti. I would want another decent prospect coming back, maybe Baltimore adding Max Wagner and/or Connor Norby.
I’m not sure on what we are getting other than Westburg. This is a very poorly written scenario. It looks like we are getting Westburg plus a ton of prospects from Baltimore, but I’m not sure.
The problem is that Bregman simply has very little trade value. He is WAY more valuable for a contending team, especially one who does not have an adequate replacement. If Bregman is traded, his salary goes to $30.5M and he has averaged 4.7 bWAR and 4.9 fWAR the past 2 seasons. Fangraphs lists 1 WAR as worth $8M. If Alex has a great contract year and gets to 5.0 WAR, he would be worth $40M giving a surplus value of $9.5M. That is likely best case scenario. How many impact prospects have a surplus trade value of less than $10M? Spread out over 6 years of control, that's less than 1 WAR per season.
Bregman has great value to a team that is a third baseman short of contending for a championship. WAR has very little to do with his value in that instance. Replacing him with a hot prospect and trading him for future value either this winter or during the season next year could be a coup for the Astros who are likely to lose him at the end of next season anyway. I submit the Astros have a couple of prospects in the system adequate to the task.
Why are people talking about this trade like it's a rumor? It is an AWFUL proposal from an obvious Yankee fan writer.
It would actually really behoove the Astros to act BEFORE the Winter Meetings get started. Currently, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's free agencies have many of the big spenders in a holding pattern. As a result, we did take a look at some of the moves that the Astros should make before the Winter Meetings start and more bidders enter the arena for the guys that they could be targeting. https://climbingtalshill.com/posts/...-s-pursuit-of-rotation-help-more-01hg5sngh7k0
Hunter Brown and Mauricio Dubon for Tyler Glasnow and Randy Arozarena. Rays are in a pickle at SS since Wander Franco is probably never going to play again. They have Carson Williams who will be ready by 2025 but they will want to be competitive in 2024. They have the pieces to backfill Arozarena, and Brown can replace Glasnow. This also helps Tampa shed salary which they need to do. Astros get a rental proven ToR SP and 3 seasons of an elite bat. The trick would be that with both Bregman and Glasnow becoming free agents next season Houston should really try to stay under the tax to capture those 2 2nd round picks. It’s doubtful Tampa would eat salary in that trade so I’m not sure there’s a way for Houston to do that without shedding salary in McCullers and Montero which would require giving up prospects, which would defeat the purpose. Anyway, the resulting roster would be dope: 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez LF Arozarena RF Tucker 1B Abreu C Diaz CF McCormick SS Pena Bench: Kessinger, Meyers, TBD backup C, Singleton Rotation: Verlander, Valdez, Glasnow, Javier, Urquidy, France Bullpen: Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Graveman, McCullers/Whitley, Garcia/Bielak, Sousa
If Tampa Bay - like 27th in MLB team salaries - needs to shed salary, they should just fold up the team. If the Astros were trying to stay competitive in 2024 while building for 2025, would you trade Framber and Bregman for ... Brown and Dubon? That's the equivalent trade in reverse. You give up your best pitcher and a middle of the order key hitter for a super-utility player and a young pitcher with an ERA above 5, hoping that these pieces will help you in 2024?
