[Official] Astros Off Season

I think that Dusty quenched Meyers' 2023 as bad as Diaz's

There are things to like about Jake's 2023 season:

He reduced his K rate to 25.8% (30.7 in 2021) and raised his BB rate to 7.6% (6.1 in 2021)

He had the lowest ground ball rate and best pull rate (both above average) of his short career.

On July 29th, Jake dug himself out of a pretty bad slump by going 3-3 with 2 walks. On August 6th he hit 2 HR and had raised his OPS from 673 to 717.

How did Dusty use that to help the team? He basically shut him down. There were 49 games left at that point and Jake only started 14 of them (only 5 in September)

I don't know if he would have been able to keep his OPS over 700 with regular playing time but he clearly didn't hit well after being benched in favor of Dubon who had a .653 OPS at the time.

From 4/17-6/10 (48g nearly 1/3 of the season) last year over 151 PA he had a .820 OPS and 126 wRC+ so we know it's in there. He just needs to tap into it a bit more.

 

Exactly.

Meyers is going to be able to carve out a fair MLB career (he'll make teams out of ST, he'll stick on the roster in an OF rotation). He's also going to be 28 years old and has yet to play a full season. Again, guys like him will stick around and even have a season or two where they're a big contributor... but there are still more questions than answers with him and he'll never be handed the job (nor will any future GM bet their job on him).

 

Sure there are a lot of players of similar value to Meyers and there isn't anything super special about him, but can you show me a free agent that can play CF defense like Meyers, hits 0.700, and costs the same as Meyers. There is a reason the Astros had Singleton, Julks, Madris, and Bannon on the roster. They are better than no one, but it actually costs money or prospects to get guys as good as Meyers. If the Astros trade Meyers, it will be because the other team thinks Meyers has value and that the Astros will receive something of value from the other team.

Until the Astros have the highest budget in baseball, they should operate on a WAR value system of replacement level. The biggest advantage of the large markets isn't that they can buy the best players in baseball, it is that they can buy players to replace holes when things go bad without regard to budget (i.e., they can minimize the years they finish below 0.500, miss the playoffs, but it is hard to outright buy a ring without some luck).

 

I would think/hope/guarantee that the Astros are a tad bit more advanced than that.

 

Either we have a disconnect or the goal post is being moved.

Jake Meyers has value - he is under contract for like 3-4 years at a low number.... he is a strong defensive centerfielder and a strong platoon player.

However - he isn't a star, and the Astros have a number of internal candidates that are close to being ready for an opportunity.

If the Astros can deal him for another player that fills a bigger need, I support that.

The Astros for example could use another reliever or two.

I have concerns with the contact part of his game - but Kenedy Corona - for example can potentially fill the role of Meyers, and he has a stronger arm, as good a glove and the Astros think he is capable of stealing a lot of bases, not 15-20 but like 60-70 if he earns playing time down the road.

 

I doubt the Astros use public WAR models, but I guarantee the front office uses a system that values players on what it costs to get them. Things have been a little weird the past 2-3 years, but MLB still operates more closely to WAR models (fancy way of saying players are valued on the cost to get them) than how they did 15-20 years ago.

 

Of course they do. Everybody does. Along with other things.

 

Also - just to be clear, it isn't like I dislike Jake Meyers.

I loved his story coming out of Nebraska, and he worked very hard with the Astros player development system (like Pena) and turned himself into a very good minor leaguer and a genuine 10 year big leaguer....... he fought back from a terrible injury.

He hits lefties well - he is a GG caliber fielder, he doesn't steal bases but he is fast, and I think he has some power that hasn't been unlocked yet, and he isn't a K machine anymore.

If the Astros didn't have others pressing to move up like Corona, and Leon and if the Astros didn't have needs - I would love Meyers as my 4th outfielder.

However the Astros have a number of holes - not huge ones, but holes and Meyers logistically can help fill those holes.

 

From what I have been told - the Astros have basically two separate internal analytic think tanks, and they have their own measures and systems.... and both results are used and balanced against each other - then the Astros rely on the player development department, which is one of 4-5 different guys....... then a decision is made by the GM and owner after talking to the scouts.

So there are a lot of things that go into it.

 

Ultimately....does it measures place a value on players based on the cost to acquire them?

For people that believe in the concept of replacement level, I'd say at least 99% would agree your words above are describing Meyers as an above replacement level player even if there is some disagreement on the exact value of replacement level. Based on what most people say a replacement level player is, actual examples of them are usually Rule 5 guys, guys DFA that another team picks up (i.e., the bare minimum cost to acquire). Replacement level players are well below average players in which one team usually isn't willing to give another team anything to acquire except under desperation. The sheer thought that another team would trade for Meyers because Meyers has value is proof that Meyers isn't replacement level based on where my goal posts have been for a very long time.

Calling 0.700 OPS Meyers replacement level is basically saying he's worth replacing with a guy in the Rule 5 draft and cutting. I disagree with that completely.

 

Earlier I explained what I mean by replacement level player - and it isn't the same. I will agree I should have chosen my words more carefully but as soon as it was an issue I explained what I meant.

No - I do not think that Meyers on the level of Rule V draft type player. Those are not even MLB level players.

 

Going to be hard to get through unscathed when your k/9 has gone from 7 to 6 to 5 over the last three years.
I don't think he's anything better than France or Bielak or Urquidy at very best.

 

Point taken.

I still don't think it will be easy to replace Meyers as you make it sound. The Astros front office placed Julks, Singleton, Madris, and Bannon on MLB roster not because the front office is incompentent, but because it costs a lot to do better. Corona may be great, but even if he was, that would make only 11 quality MLB position players counting Meyers and Corona.

 

But. . .

Corona, Loperfido, Leon, Wagner, Dezenzo, Kessinger, Whitcomb, Dirden, Barber and even Melton have another year of experience.

Using Julks, Bannon, Madris, and Singleton allowed those guys to not be rushed and disrupt their plan. But to be fair, the jury is still out on whether Kessinger was ready.

 

Make it happen Dana

 

You want a guy who is expected to miss the entire 2024 season?

 

If he is signed for 2 years, yes.

I would offer $4M, 7M and $4M players option w/ $1M buyout. That's $5M AAV and $12M guarantee.

Probably not enough but small downside if he never pitches again or pitches poorly.

 

Is he signed for 2025 or a free agent?

 

Ideally the Astros would keep Meyers. Not only is he a good player, he is low key one of the most popular players on the team. For example he is Jose Abreu’s favorite teammate and Michael Brantley has said he is the most fun guy on the team.