The Astros will have approx 50 games started by LHP (49 in 2023, 54 in 2022) so 112 by RHP. I would say that they want to limit Alvarez to no more than 1/3 of the games (54) in LF. That leaves approx. 58 games vs RHP that Yordan will not be available for LF and neither Meyers nor Dubon are good options. Another thing to consider is that the team can try to make up the run production at another position to allow a lesser hitter but superior defender start. The problem with that is Pena and Abreu are the only bats among the other starters that are below average vs RHP but their backups are too. The biggest issue, offensively, I see is a lack of versatility. The starters and the backups all appear to have similar strengths and weaknesses which prevents the team from platooning for maximum advantage.
This is exactly why i've been saying adding another good utility man should be a target for us this offseason.
Alvarez 54 games in LF vs RHPs, Meyers 58 games in CF vs RHPs, and Meyers gets the 50 games in CF vs LHPs is about 5 fWAR assuming last year's production (4.5 fWAR if you assume Meyers is replacement level vs RHPs). Astros just need a guy that play DH 54 games vs. RHPs to guarantee they have the best OF and DH value in baseball if they remain healthy (they probably have the best OF and DH combined already). Personally, I think Diaz will be one of the best catchers vs LHPs next season. If the Astros get a catcher that can back him up 50 games vs. RHPs, Diaz can then slide to 1B vs. RHPs. Abreu will probably be okay as a DH vs RHPs.
He is another Brandon Bielak in my eyes. I would have been stunned and disappointed had we tried to get him.
That is a lot of projection for a known commodity. He's not a prospect. He's a 27-year-old who is who he is at this point. Sub -.700 OPS bat. All the baseball savant hitting numbers are bad. Amazing glove. Weak arm. Fast baserunner. The package is definitely 4th OF on a good team. There's no way he becomes anything in your bottom 10% or top 20% categories. And I wouldn't call a bad bat, great range, weak arm CF "average". There are teams he could start for, but he would be one of the lower-tier starting CF.
I would disagree that there is no "No way" but agree its highly unlikely. After all, Chas just did it. 2022: underwhelming baseball savant hitting metrics and 114 wRC+ at age 27 2023: breakout 133 wRC+ at age 28 with better but not great baseball savant numbers. A similar jump by Meyers puts him at 107 wRC+ and very valuable player. Again, unlikely but we just saw Chas do it and they are very similar players.
Chas at least was starting from "great glove, average arm, average bat". Compare his 2022 to Meyers's 2023. Chas in 2022 had a positive xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, BB%. Those were things to build a solid profile from. You can start an average bat with a plus glove and know at least you're getting solid play. Other than Chase%, there's nothing to like about Meyers's batting numbers. And like you mentioned, Chas is a huge outlier in terms of improvement at that age. I don't think a team would invest in Meyers believing he's going to make a similar leap.
He's had a season with era under 3 and another just over. Career era as a starter is 4.04 largely from an injury plagued 2023. As a starter: ERA / Opp OPS / WHIP 2022: 3.38 / .696 / 1.208 2021: 3.12 / .676 / 1.149 Guy can pitch. He wasn't healthy and getting a pay bump.
Meyers with a sub-.300 wOBA last season was a 3 WAR full season player. Unless you think his defense was a fluke last season (which doesn't appear to be the case at all), that's not a 4th OF. With his defense, he doesn't have to be even an average hitter to be an above average player. He has also shown that he can draw walks and his cut down on his SwStr% and K% since 2021.
Setting aside details on which prospects included... Out Montero France Brown Urquidy Meyers + Melton, Arrighetti, + In Luis Robert Cal Quantrill Brandon Belt Victor Caratini Zack Thompson Based on Spotrac value calculations for arbitration and free agency, that's a tax payroll of 232 million, 5 million under the tax trigger. Belt pairs with Abreu to rest him more. He's a lefty bat off the bench. He had an .890 ops against righties last year so he gets Abreu about 40 games off. He can also DH some. Quantrill is 5th starter with Bielak and Garcia in reserve ultimately. Robert is insurance if Tucker leaves. Thompson is a lefty for the bullpen. Caratini coming off a decent year (.711 ops). Decent hitter for a backup.
The only real “known” about Meyers is that he is an elite defensive player in terms of getting to balls and catching balls. He’s been too injured and had too inconsistent of playing time to know much else. His arm is currently being labeled as “weak”, but his arm was average before he got hurt. Theres a chance that a full health his arm will be average to below average. We probably know he will carry a k rate above 20% and below 35% but that’s a wide range. At 20% he’s a star, at 35% he’s a AAAA guy. He hasn’t played consistently enough to narrow it down yet. We know he has power potential, he’s hit 110+mph exit velos. His rookie year before he got hurt his xwOBA was .321. That’s what McCormick and Pena are projected to put up next season. I wouldn’t bet money on it, but there’s at least a chance that Meyers might be a really good player.
WAR is a good measure, especially offensively - but it has limitations. Yeah - I don't really think that Meyers with an OPS of 700 is all that special. When I say replacement level, I don't mean WAR replacement level.... I mean that I can find similar players on the market that don't cost a lot. Meyers is a platoon level player at this point. He has a career OPS of like .670 and only has an OPS of .640 against righties...... he hits lefties solidly in his career, but even then he isn't a world beater... he is .760... Meyers is a solid big leaguer and 4th outfielder.
You gave the reason why he is a 4th outfielder on a good team in your first sentence - he has a sub .300 WOBA. He is a poor hitter against righties. He has a career OPS of like 650 against righties. He is a good player against lefties. Also - his arm is not the same since the injury and he also doesn't really steal bases. There are circumstances under which he can be a really productive player - increase his power some, strikeout less...... steal bases.... but that isn't a guarantee.
Stros must be doing pretty well if the hot topic of November conversation has gone from Dusty to Maldy to Jake ****ing Meyers
