This is not the group that will lead us to the prize. We can waste five more years or try to be good in 2-3years. Being really smart at this time will make a difference.
If I recall correctly, 5 man lineup data needs a LONG time to "normalize" or become statistically meaningful: edit: here is the article: https://www.theringer.com/2023/4/13...ff-preview-how-to-use-and-not-use-lineup-data To analyze lineups with some measure of certainty, then, we need to wait for all those extra variables to settle. Analyst Kostya Medvedovsky calculated last year that it takes about 550 possessions for a five-man lineup’s offensive rating to “stabilize” and about 850 possessions for its defensive rating to do the same. (Defense takes longer because a team has much more control over its own shooting percentage than its opponents’.) For context, however, only 25 lineups this season reached 550 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass—that’s less than one per team. Only 11 reached 850 possessions. That doesn’t mean there’s no value in analyzing a lineup before it reaches those thresholds—500 possessions will still provide much more information than 100 or 200—but it does mean that any analysis should be limited and precise. “I suspect,” Medvedovsky wrote, “that means there’s very little you can do with simple 5-man unit ratings to see which units are ‘working.’ Even if you’re lucky enough to have a unit with a ton of possessions together, you’re going to be comparing it against other lineups which have barely any.”
In a nutshell, Clutch said, Ime is a defensive coach and less of coach that plays free flowing Offense. But I am all for waiting for larger sample size otherwise.
Just for fun put this sample into the "Should I use this rating" tool and see what comes up: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/should_I_use_this_rating/ Spoiler " This Should Be Illegal."
#29 HOUSTON ROCKETSLast Week:26↓ Record: 0-3 OffRtg: 101.0 (29) DefRtg: 115.2 (24) NetRtg: -14.2 (29) Pace: 97.0 (29) The Rockets had fourth-quarter leads in two of their three games, but Jabari Smith Jr. had a rough finish (0-for-2 from the line before missing a wide-open game-winner) in San Antonio. Stephen Curry happened two nights later. Houston is off to a 0-3 start for the second straight season. Three takeaways The Rockets have outscored their opponents on 2-point shots, but have the league’s third-worst point differential (-11.0 per game) on 3s and its worst differential on free throws (-8.0 per game). Their starting lineup has registered a positive plus-minus in all three of their games and outscored their opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions in its 56 total minutes. But they’ve been outscored by 29.8 per 100 in 93 minutes with at least one reserve on the floor. The Rockets are playing slower under Ime Udoka. They’ve seen the league’s second-biggest drop in pace, from 99.7 possessions per 48 minutes (14th) last season to 97.0 (29th) this season. The Rockets don’t play the Blazers until Jan. 24, so they’re going to have to be better to get off the schneid. They got their first win in their fourth game last season, beating the previously undefeated Jazz with Smith going 4-for-4 from the line down the stretch. Their loss to the Warriors on Sunday was the start of a seven-game homestand, with the next game (vs. the Hornets on Wednesday) clearly being the most winnable of the seven, because the Kings (x 2), Lakers, Pelicans and Nuggets are coming to town after that. Week 2: vs. CHA, vs. SAC https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2023-24-week-2
Oh, this is going annoy me. Pace is a measure of speed of both teams. And it is also includes possessions that last longer due to Offensive rebounds. You can appear to have slowed down via less turnovers, better transition D, and more offensive rebounds — for either team. In just a 3 game sample, ORL had an above average game of Offense Rebounds, and VV has lowered our TOs significantly. And one focus of the defense is better transition defense, which should translate into “slower” play by the opponents. I don’t think we really have a slower, more deliberate offense, at all, if that is the writer’s takeaway from that stat. Our defensive goal is to slow down the opponents vs last year! And FVV is lowering our TOs, so far.
If you view past Offenses and we had Mike DAntoni, a maestro at attacking opponents early in the shot clock.
30. Houston Rockets 2023-24 record: 0-3 Previous ranking: 26 Next games : vs. CHA (Nov. 1), vs. SAC (Nov. 4), vs (Nov. 6) Alperen Sengun had 58 points, 27 rebounds and 20 assists during the Rockets' 0-3 start, joining Nikola Jokic (three times) and Domantas Sabonis as the only centers since the ABA-NBA merger to put up those numbers in the first three games of a season. But Houston has been outscored by 16 points in Sengun's 102 minutes. -- MacMahon https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...s-celtics-bucks-continue-top-league-hierarchy
https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2023-24-week-3 #26 HOUSTON ROCKETSLast Week:29↑ Record: 2-3 OffRtg: 108.0 (22) DefRtg: 111.6 (18) NetRtg: -3.6 (20) Pace: 97.6 (28) After an 0-3 start, the Rockets have won two straight games. They almost lost an 18-point lead against Charlotte and did lose a 17-point lead against Sacramento, but held on both nights, getting balanced scoring from their starters. Three takeaways All five Houston starters have averaged at least 14.4 points per game and the Rockets have outscored their opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions with all five on the floor. The combined score of their two first quarters last week was Rockets 72, Opponents 46. Dillon Brooks has an effective field goal percentage of 71.7%, fifth among 139 players with at least 50 field goal attempts. It is also the highest mark for any five-game stretch in his career. Lastly, he’s 13-for-14 from the free-throw line. The Rockets, who set records (for the 19 seasons of Synergy tracking) for transition points allowed per game in each of the last two seasons (25 in 2021-22, 27.2 last season), have allowed just 17.8 per game (third fewest) this season. Brooks’ shooting is certainly unsustainable (he hasn’t had an effective field goal percentage close to the league average since his rookie season). But that transition defense number is super encouraging, even if the Kings were without De’Aaron Fox when the Rockets beat them on Saturday. The Rockets’ seven-game homestand continues with another game against the Kings on Monday, with Fox a possibility to return. Week 3: vs. SAC, vs. LAL, vs. NOP*, vs. DEN
Glad to see you posted this. That’s a heck of a huge jump over an incredibly short time. Whether we can stay in such rarified air in the rankings, I guess time will tell. Regardless of how long it lasts, it’s great to see.
Incredible how different the Rockets look between the first 3 games and the last 3 games. Fred and Brooks have infused their veteran leadership, and it’s showing. The potential for greatness is there with the roster. With Eason coming back today, the team just got a major jolt of talent, and will be fun to watch. Will be interesting to see how the Rockets handle the LA Lakers tonight.
Rockets are now in the Top 10 at CBS. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone now. BR moved them up to 14 from 28. Since that time, they’ve won two more games, the last against the reigning champs. You could argue that even at the time it was posted, they were better than the two teams ahead of them. Hopefully, going back out on the road won’t disrupt things too much.
