Vibe Shift: Democrats, Israel, and the 2024 election

in a criminal case? if so, I may have missed that.

Spoiler

I have no doubts that Trump has done far worse. he may in fact be a rapist, but he is not a convicted rapist, at least, atm

 

We’re almost exactly one year out from what increasingly looks like another Trump v. Biden showdown. Former president Donald Trump leads his second-place opponent by more than forty percentage points nationally, and has a thirty-point advantage in Iowa. President Joe Biden avoided a primary challenge from RFK Jr., who is now running as an Independent, and no one thinks Representative Dean Phillips’s campaign is serious, especially considering his refusal to acknowledge the objective reality that he’s even running against Biden.

Although Phillips doesn’t seem to be the guy for the job, more Democrats are waking up to the idea that Biden doesn’t have what it takes to win a second term. Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run again. On Sunday, the Biden team was hit with another whammy: a New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters found that Trump is leading Biden in five out of six major battleground states. Despite facing four separate indictments and attempts to remove his name from the ballot, the former president leads by ten points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Biden holds a two point lead in Wisconsin.

To be fair, the margin of error in each state ranges between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points, which puts Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the toss-up category. But the overall methodology of the poll is sound and the general results across states still spell bad news for Biden. Biden wins voters under thirty by just one point, Trump earns the support of 22 percent of black voters (“a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times”), voters trust Trump more on the economy and national security by double digits, and even the highly unlikable Vice President Kamala Harris performs better than Biden — eek!

Social media lit up on Sunday with Biden supporters calling for him to halt his re-election campaign following this damning poll. Bill Kristol asserted, “It’s time for Biden to announce he won’t run in 2024.” David Axelrod was a bit softer in tone, urging Biden to question if it is “wise” and in the “best interest” of the country for him to continue his campaign. Representative Pramila Jayapal said she had “great concern” for Democrats after seeing the NYT poll.


Naturally, the Biden campaign pushed back on the doomsday predictions. Ron Klain derisively dismissed Axelrod as the guy who previously called Biden “Mr. Magoo,” indicating that Team Biden won’t take his concerns seriously. Kevin Munoz, a Biden campaign spokesman, suggested the poll results don’t matter because they are still a year from Election Day. Surrogates also pushed a clip of former DNC chairwoman Donna Brazile noting that there are many presidents who had poor approval ratings before winning re-election.

One of the many problems with the Biden team’s denialism, though, is that they were once champions of the year-out New York Times/Siena poll. As Alex Thompson of Axios pointed out, the Biden campaign touted the same poll in 2020 when it showed him to be the most electable of the Democratic primary candidates against Trump. Considering Biden did end up winning that contest, it would be quite unwise for the Biden campaign to now dismiss the NYT’s 2024 predictions. One has to imagine that, privately, there is a very real panic setting in at Biden HQ.

-Amber Duke​

https://thespectator.com/newsletter...y-11-6-23/?twclid=2-623cb8tf8fdhhorc4phzame0b

 

locally.

 

3rd party candidates hurt Biden more than they hurt Trump. clink the link for polls and graphs.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/electi...reaten-biden-in-2024-b639e64f?mod=djem10point

Why Third-Party Candidates Threaten Biden in 2024
When voters are given options beyond Biden and Trump, the president tends to bleed the most support, and Joe Manchin could complicate things further
By Aaron Zitner

and Stephanie Stamm

Nov. 10, 2023 at 5:00 am ET
Most voters, however, will have several choices beyond Trump and Biden—a fact that isn’t reflected in many public-opinion polls. When polls do offer a larger slate of options, Biden often loses the most support to those additional candidates or to “undecided” status, giving Trump an edge.

For Democrats, that prospect took on new urgency Thursday as Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia, renewed speculation that he would try to run for president with the group No Labels, which says it wants to fund a bipartisan ticket. Manchin said he would abandon re-election plans for the Senate and instead explore the national appetite for “creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”

Biden loses slightly more ground than Trump in several other polls in which voters are presented both a two-candidate ballot and then a ballot with four or more options.

Without third-party candidates

With Kennedy and West as additional named candidates

That is why many Democrats fear the effect that third parties and independent candidates could have on the president.

Liberal intellectual Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his antivaccine advocacy, have said they would run as independents. To appear on any state’s ballot, they will need to meet requirements the state sets, which usually entails a signature-gathering effort.

Polling suggests that one candidate, Kennedy, stands out as a particular wild card because of how much support he draws. He might pull more votes away from Trump than Biden, if he gains access to ballots.

While Kennedy comes from America’s most famous Democratic family, his advocacy against vaccines and skepticism of government regulators and public-health officials have made him more popular among Republicans than Democrats.​

 

where they are on the ballot, if they are, will be key.

 

if Jews and Blacks desert Biden, can he win with progressives alone?


Black Voters Show Signs of Slipping Away From Biden in 2024

Concerns about the economy have Democrats fearing they will lose minority supporters who have long backed them

https://www.wsj.com/politics/electi...y-from-biden-in-2024-69ae78b0?mod=djem10point