Dean Phillips is going to declare today in New Hampshire. https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/politics/dean-phillips-presidential-campaign-launch/index.html This does look like a statement campaign regarding Biden’s age as Phillips says he thinks Biden has done a good job. Also if Super Tuesday was held next Tuesday it’s unlikely Phillips could even win MN in the primary. He is most likely either running a vanity campaign or trying to attract a bigger name by showing that Biden is vulnerableZ
Like the Young Turks guy, it's all attention seeking vanity attempts. What I hope happens is when the reality sinks in when Trump officially becomes the nominee, is alot of these people wisen up, and use their heightened platforms to do the right thing for the country. Hell even Tulsi Freaking Gabbard did the right patriotic thing in 2020 after all she did, and would continue to do. This actually ends up working out too in the longrun when you have these candidates that create a base of disenfranchised voters who want to protest the party, give them a space, and some time to vent, and then that trusted source can make that last minute case that only someone who isn't really a supporter can make. Tulsi Gabbard telling the Joe Rogan audience that the right thing to do is to vote for Joe Biden has to make some sort of difference on the margins. That's a crowd that really... .REALLY wants nothing to do with a Democrat, and I have to believe her endorsement of Biden in the end had to help. If the The Young Turks, and the other vanity project candidates do the right thing by next Fall I think everything will be fine. If they have the ego of Ralph Nader and cannot get over themselves in order to put country in front of ego, then we all could be Fcked.
Polls aren’t real and birds aren’t real. Joey B is about to be sacked, too many mumbles, fumbles and ints.
Democrats and others should certainly be concerned about the polls. I was listening to one of the NYT pollsters discussing the results though and while from a democratic standpoint they are worrying but they don’t point to definitively that Biden is definitely going to lose. One thing the pollster noted is that it’s not necessarily Democratic policies that voters are against and that negatives of Trump Are still very high. Biden’s negatives notably his age are still a big problem and I am coming around to thinking that Dean Phillips might be right that a competitive primary might be good for the Democrats. For one it shifts attention back to the Democrats but also it gives Biden the chance to defend his record. If Biden can’t do that it still would end up benefit the democrats replacing Biden through a competitive process than if he stumbles badly in the general election.
The biggest motivator for Democratic voters is the presence of Donald Trump, either as a candidate or an issue, on the ballot. I honestly think the GOP would win in a big way if they nominated anyone but Trump, but they don't live in reality anymore. Maybe losing a fourth straight election where that's the case will make Republicans realize that the majority of this country hates him more than they like any other candidate.
Trump certainly is a big motivation for many to vote against him but the mistake they Hillary Clinton made was just presuming they trump would sink himself. In a tight race just relying upon which candidate the electorate dislikes the most is very risky. In a rational world Trump would still be hawking steaks on pay per view or as some B celebrity on a game show. That he’s even still relevant shows we don’t live in that world. Biden or any other Democrat still need to make the case for voting for them.
it’s not just Trump anymore…most of these GOP types are MAGA or not much better than MAGA like Ron DeSantis, and the Republicans are on the wrong side of a host of issues like abortion GOP has been underperforming badly ever since Dobbs Dems just keep selecting unlikable people like Hillary or flawed candidates like Biden…Who is the next Obama within the party, but this time an Obama that actually is willing to get sh*t done?
While national POTUS polls this early are meaningless ... POTUS elections are won in a handful of battleground states. National polls, even those done weeks before the election, are meaningless. State polls, even right before an election, do a very bad job of predicting turnout and enthusiasm. Turnout for abortion (and Trump ftm) swamped the polling predictions.
Obama was an exceptional individual and by definition people like that are rare. The problem with Democrats is that there are so many interests it’s hard to find a candidate who everyone can get behind. Biden was a compromise candidate and a known quantity. There are a few democrats who might have the type of personal charisma and political skills to win national election. I think Andy Beshear after his win last night is definitely a name to consider. Gretchen Whitmer Governor Of Michigan is another.
If a Democratic candidate is not holier-than-thou, left-leaning voters often move to the more progressive-seeming candidate. This helped H-Clinton lose in 2016 (I said "helped", it wasn't the whole story) when so many went for Sanders or even voted for f***ing Trump as some sort of protest vote. If a Republican candidate is not holier-than-thou, apparently, the voters coalesce around ("congeal" might be a better word) that candidate more readily. One thing I learned about Republicans when I lived in Iowa is that "if-you're-not-with-me, you're-against-me" mentality. I got a mailer from that Something Nann Huffman last week. I was reading it aloud to my wife; she thought I was making it up. "No, read it." The state of politics is depressing. It went, "We believe Democrats are evil. I'm pro-life, pro-second amendment, (something else I can't remember), I stand with Donald Trump!!! I stand with Ken Paxton!!!"
Whitmer is my ideal candidate. She's smart, tough, survived a kidnapping plot and is from the part of the country that matters electorally. I don't think Newsom stands a chance nationally; the effete Californian brand won't play in Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.
Both Gavin Newsome and Pete Buttigieg are not afraid to go on Fox News and mix it up. This might be able to sway the ever shrinking right leaning moderate Independents???
People (especially with the media, and especially on the right) just cannot seem to get it through their head that progressives, young people, etc. all want someone more progressive so therefore in polls they'll almost always disapprove of Biden. HOWEVER... THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP. Those voters are very likely to be just as animated, and maybe even more animated to vote AGAINST TRUMP in 2024 and against extremist measures from the right more than they are to be excited for Biden. That doesn't mean that Biden is historically this deeply unpopular president who sucks at everything he does. It's just the high demands of the left, and the fact that Biden is more centrist, and pragmatic. Biden just needs turnout, and NOBODY turns out the Biden coalition and the progressive left like Donald Trump... and Donald Trump is very likely to be more unhinged, more fascistic, and it's highly possible he's even behind bars by election day. Yes, Trump can win with a combination of third party spoilers, and low turnout for Biden if the election hits a cycle where Trump is sort of masked by circumstance. So Democrats cannot afford to be complacent.... but I would much rather be Joe Biden heading into this election that Trump or a Republican. The polls DO NOT tell the entire story which should be obvious to everyone but clearly some just don't see what is right in front of their face.
Also the way the polls aggregate the Biden vs Trump is important. The way these questions are asked to the audience is to ask them if they approve or not of Biden, and then if they approve of Trump or not. Then they aggregate that as a head to head matchup. That's not the way to poll who'll win between the two in 24. You poll on the issues of women's rights to choose, belief in democracy vs a right leaning autocracy, separation of church and state, etc. People are going to understand what they are voting for in 2024. The Biden coalition is NOT a cult of personality... but I do believe they are a coalition of voters who agree vehemently on core issues. This isn't a group of voters that are magically going to change their mind that ... "Oh you know what... because Biden is too old now, I suddenly believe the government has the right to control my body." If the voters understand clearly that a vote for Biden is a vote to retain a womens right to chooser or to retain a Democracy (BECAUSE IT CLEARLY WILLBE) I think Biden cleans house on Trump. The question is really how dumb voters are I guess and in 2018, 2020, and 2022 the voters were pretty damn aware of this issue by the way they voted. We'll see in 2024 I guess.
